Guardiola’s side visit a home-weak fourth division side

729 clubs competed in the 141st edition of the English FA Cup this season. The oldest cup competition is bursting with tradition and has written many fairytales. Time and again, underdogs reward themselves with the game of their lives. One such match will be played at the County Ground on Friday evening. Swindon, a fourth division club based there, face Manchester City – the current industry leaders in the world’s strongest league.

The Robins, as Swindon are known, suffered relegation from League One last season and have since been relegated to League Two. However, the season so far has been promising and the home match against the reigning champions is the reward for these strong performances. Unsurprisingly, however, the chances of success are only theoretical. Accordingly, betting odds of up to 30.00 are also offered on the sensational home win in the Swindon vs Manchester City clash.

Pep Guardiola’s Skyblues will certainly start the rotation machine and one or the other youngster will get minutes of action at the highest level. However, this does not change the fact that they are clear favourites. The first match in the round of 64 will kick off on Friday evening at 9 p.m.

Swindon – Statistics & current form

In 1993/94, the club still played in the English Premier League, but suffered direct relegation after only one year. Since then, Swindon Town has never been represented in the highest English division. After winning promotion in 2019/20, “The Robins” were completely overwhelmed in the third division last season and relegation was certain early on. Swindon conceded a staggering 89 goals last season

Home games are not an advantage

At the bottom of the table, things are going much better for the team and direct promotion is currently within the realms of possibility. The tables in the English football lower house are to be taken with a grain of salt, because the number of games varies greatly in some cases. What is striking about head coach Ben Garner’s team is the fact that a home game is by no means an advantage. Of the 22 games played so far, Swindon have won ten. However, just three wins have come at home. The first game in 2022 could almost be described as an exception. Thanks to an outstanding Harry McKirdy (four goals), Swindon won 5:2 against Northampton Town.

This also ended a long drought, as Swindon had to wait almost six weeks for a win before this success. Hartlepool were beaten on 23 November, followed by two draws, two defeats and two postponements due to infection.

The 5-2 win on New Year’s Day was a timely confidence-booster. Nevertheless, the statistics show an average of only 1.27 points per home game. In comparison, Garner’s team collected an average of 2.07 points per game away from home (seven wins in eleven games).

Regardless of whether Swindon are strong at home or not, this does not change their role as outsiders against the Skyblues from Manchester. Even a goal would be a big surprise. In view of the fact that only 15 goals have been scored in eleven home games (and five of them on Saturday), it is much more likely that Swindon will not score against Manchester City or that the favourites will win by nil.

Predicted line-up of Swindon:
Wollacott – Iandolo, Hunt, Odimayo, Kesler – Lyden, Reed, Williams, Gladwin – McKirdy, Simpson

Last games played by Swindon:

League Two
01/01 2022 – Swindon 5 – 2 Northampton

12/29 2021 – Swindon 0 – 0 Stevenage

12/11 2021 – Barrow 2 – 0 Swindon

12/07 2021 – Leyton Orient 4 – 1 Swindon

FA Cup
12/04 2021 – Walsall 1 – 2 Swindon

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

The thrilling 2-2 draw in the Tuchel vs Klopp duel brought a winner after all – namely Manchester City. The reigning English champions are taking giant steps towards defending their title. While the competition has had to struggle with setbacks, especially in recent weeks, things are going like clockwork for the Skyblues. One success follows the next.

14 wins in 15 competitive matches

The first game of 2022 was also the best proof that everything does not always go easily for the Citizens, but that they also show the necessary fight and bite to “force” a victory. Against Arsenal, the Skyblues managed a dramatic victory, with the Spaniard Rodri scoring the winning goal only in the 93rd minute. It was the eleventh win in a row in the Premier League and six in a row in the competition. Manchester City have now won 14 of their last 15 competitive matches. Thanks to the strong last few weeks, Manchester City now have a comfortable cushion in the league, with Chelsea ten points behind and Liverpool eleven points behind (but with a catch-up game). Currently, Manchester City’s successful title defence seems to be only a matter of time.

Top game ahead – rotation expected

After the clash against the Gunners, the next top game awaits next weekend against a team from the capital. In a rematch of last season’s Champions League final, Pep Guardiola could finally knock Thomas Tuchel’s Blues out of the title race. This game is obviously a priority and this will also be reflected in the line-up. The big stars, who have had to fulfil a gruelling workload of late, will not feature at the County Ground.

Top talents like Luke Mbete, Cole Palmer, James McAtee or the young Brazilian Kayky, on the other hand, are pushing for minutes. Even without the big names like Kevin de Bruyne, Bernardo Silva or Ruben Dias, victory will only come through the playful visitors. However, for a decent return to be possible, a prediction on a handicap win for the visitors is needed at Swindon against Manchester City. Given the Skyblues’ over-form, a landslide victory is also within the realms of possibility.

Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Steffen – Zinchenko, Mbete, Stones, Walker – Gündogan, Fernandinho – Palmer, McAtee, Kayky – Jesus

Last matches played by Manchester City:

Premier League
01/01 2022 – Arsenal London 1 – 2 Manchester City

12/29 2021 – Brentford 0 – 1 Manchester City

12/26 2021 – Manchester City 6 – 3 Leicester

12/19 2021 – Newcastle United 0 – 4 Manchester City

12/14 2021 – Manchester City 7 – 0 Leeds

Swindon – Manchester City Direct comparison / H2H record

In fact, the direct comparison between the current fourth division side and the English league leaders spits out 22 duels. Unsurprisingly, however, these games are not relevant to this unequal FA Cup duel. In fact, there have only been two matches in the 21st century. In the spring of 2000 in the Championship (2:0 away win for Manchester City) and one season later in the third FA Cup round. Here, too, the Citizens won 2:0. This means that Friday’s clash will be the first in 20 years.

Swindon – Manchester City Tip

The FA Cup enjoys a very high reputation as the oldest competition in football history. The top teams by no means take the games lightly, but given the enormous workload in all competitions, a certain rotation is understandable and imperative. However, this match is a “David against Goliath” duel even if Pep Guardiola will spare some stars. The Skyblues are in excellent form and are going from victory to victory. It is inconceivable that this impressive series will be broken on Friday evening. The regular favourites to win at Swindon against Manchester City, however, are not worth a betting recommendation with odds of under 1.10.

Interesting betting opportunities can still be found in this duel. The central question will be, can the underdogs surprise with a lot of commitment and passion? Or will Manchester City live up to their role as clear favourites and have a better training session under competitive conditions? Perfectionist Pep Guardiola will demand a concentrated performance from his players right up to the last minute and will not tolerate any slackness. In this respect, the chances of a clear victory for the favourites are very good. A four-goal difference is a big hurdle, but the Citizens can do it. Five units are therefore recommended for Swindon against Manchester City when betting on Manchester City -3.5