Do the Chargers strike back against Denver?
The duel of the Chargers against the Broncos is the duel of two desperate players who are still trying to make the playoffs at the last minute. LA has the slightly better cards with an 8:7 record. Denver, with a current 7-8 record, would definitely be out of the draw if they lost.
The omens for the Broncos, however, are very bad. Especially since their starting quarterback suffered a concussion the week before last and it is still not clear whether he will be able to start on Sunday.
With Bridgewater out and Drew Lock at the helm, their chances do shrink to a minimum. The last two games have already shown that, when they averaged just 11.5 points.
The Chargers were better offensively. Defensively, it was more of a problem for them. Nevertheless, our prediction for LA vs. Denver is a clear home win for the Chargers, who also want to redeem themselves for the embarrassing defeat in Houston.
Kickoff of the Sunday Game is on Sunday night at 10:05 pm in Los Angeles. The game will be broadcast live in the RedZone on DAZN.
Los Angeles Chargers – Statistics & current form
The Chargers had probably imagined this quite differently. They travelled to Houston with a nice 8:6 record and could have taken a huge step towards the postseason with an away win. But then they suffered a completely unexpected 29:41 defeat.
Above all, the 41 counter-points were almost sensational against the team that had previously scored the fewest points of all teams. It speaks very strongly against their defence, which has already experienced some low points this season.
What’s wrong with the Chargers defense?
The once-feared defence is allowing the second most points on average this season at 27.4. Of course, that’s partly due to the loss of Joey Bosa, but the Chargers shouldn’t make it quite so easy for themselves.
With Joseph, Jones or Tillery, there are still enough top-class players who could pull the coals out of the fire. It is difficult to say why this does not succeed. However, constantly new compositions also play a big role here.
Herbert should hit back on Sunday
When the defence is weak, the offence has to step up. That worked out quite well in some cases this season, like in the games against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati or New York, but as soon as Justin Herbert lets up slightly (like against the Texans), things get tight.
Against the currently toothless Broncos, however, he has the chance to make amends, and he should take it. LA has also never lost three games in a row this season, which is why a tip on the home team is our clear betting recommendation for Chargers vs Broncos.
Key Players:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Austin Ekeler
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Jared Cook
K: Tristan Vizcaino
Denver Broncos – Statistics & Current Form
Still stuck in the NFL’s Concussion Protocol, Teddy Bridgewater is questionable to make the squad again by Sunday after seeing the impact a fortnight ago. But even if he does, there’s no way he’ll be back at 100%.
So the Broncos are already very weakened for this so important game. With a loss and then a 7:9 win, they would have no chance of making the postseason and that after starting the season 3-0.
Steadily declining form curve
Since that 3-0 start, the team has been almost unrecognisable. The only exception was the interim 30:16 at the Cowboys, where it’s still not clear how they pulled that off. It almost seems like a one-hit wonder at the moment.
But even with Teddy Bridgewater back on the field, we see Denver in the clear underdog role. With 19.9 points scored over the season, they are one of only ten teams not to average 20 points.
Defence the best team part
The fact that they have been able to rack up seven victories already is solely thanks to their defence. They allow an average of only 17.3 points – a league best together with the Patriots. And that’s without Von Miller, who has since left the team.
Nevertheless, we don’t see them being able to stop the Chargers’ power offence away from home. Since they are also looking to make up for the first-leg loss, Los Angeles vs. Denver odds are much more bettable on the Chargers from a betting basis perspective.
Key Players:
QB: Drew Lock
RB: Melvin Gordon
WR: Courtland Sutton
TE: Noah Fant
K: Brandon McManus
Los Angeles Chargers – Denver Broncos Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The first duel this season went surprisingly clearly to the Broncos. They sent the Chargers home with 28:13, which was partly due to two interceptions by Justin Herbert.
But since he rarely has two weak games in a row, he should be able to bounce back after the poor performance in Houston on Sunday. However, they should not underestimate Denver, even if they have to play without Teddy Bridgewater.
Still, we see LA clearly ahead here, the only question is how high? Since the Chargers are a team of extremes and either totally deliver or totally fail, we assume the former. LA’s last three wins have come by an average of a 13-point difference.
So for Chargers vs Broncos we see a bet on LA -6 as a good mediocrity to still be able to pick up enough value and also still be protected against a reasonably close game.
Los Angeles Chargers – Denver Broncos Pick
The conditions before this game are clear. Probably only the winner will still have chances for the postseason after this game. The pressure on both teams is therefore high. Here we see Chargers QB Justin Herbert as more resistant compared to Broncos backup Drew Lock.
Since the Chargers often let it rip when they win, the success could also be a little higher than a few points. Therefore, for LA vs. Denver, betting odds on Chargers -6 are the perfect betting option.
Alternatively, a bet on a Keenan Allen touchdown is also an option. The is Justin Herbert’s favourite target and has scored three touchdowns in the last three games. He was also looked for frequently in the first leg in Denver with seven receptions, even if it wasn’t enough for a TD.
