Does Sascha redeem himself for the preliminary round?

It is not world number one Novak Djokovic who has made it to the final of the ATP Finals 2021, but Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev, his direct pursuers, the current numbers two and three in the ATP world rankings. The German won the major title at the year-end tournament three years ago, while his Russian opponent lifted the coveted trophy last year.

The Russian defeated the German 2-1 (6-3, 6-7 and 7-6) in a close match in the round robin. Even now, in the run-up to the big final between Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev, the odds are swinging in the direction of the reigning US Open champion, who has won his last nine singles matches at the ATP Finals in a row.

While Medvedev’s run is a major factor in this highly anticipated final. Once again, though, Sascha showed in the semifinals in his ferocious performance against Novak Djokovic that on a good day he really can take down any opponent. There is also an interesting aspect: in all four cases in which Zverev defeated the Djoker, he also won the tournament in the end – most recently at the 2021 Olympic Games.

We therefore find a lot of value in Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev in the betting on the supposed underdog.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 3.
Position in the seedings: 3rd

The 24-year-old German Alexander Zverev is still waiting for another chance to be crowned a Grand Slam winner after dramatically losing the final of the 2020 US Open. Nevertheless, his tennis year 2021 was extremely successful.

Sascha stormed into the semifinals of both the French Open and the US Open, while he also won the gold medal at the 2021 Olympic Games. It was one of five tournament wins in total for the German, who also won two Masters in Madrid and Cincinnati.

Zverev has won all five finals in 2021

Now Sascha is in his sixth final of 2021 and could have two strong numbers here.

For one thing, Zverev could single-handedly win the “Most Tournament Wins of the Year” ranking, in which he currently shares first place with Djokovic and Ruud.

And secondly, by winning the ATP Finals again, which he already secured in London in 2018, he would retain his win rate of 100% in reached finals this year. Since losing his US Open final, the German has lost only one of the eight finals he has reached subsequently – but this one was against today’s opponent Daniil Medvedev, of all people, to whom he lost 2-1 at the Paris Masters 2020.

The strong second serve made the difference against Djokovic

The German, who was particularly convincing against Djokovic with his second serve (an unbelievable 63% of all second serves led to a point win), suffered a narrow 1-2 defeat against Medvedev in the round robin, in which Sascha was unable to take the Russian’s serve away from him even once.

So for Alexander Zverev’s bet on winning the tournament against Daniil Medvedev to work out, he will not only have to be wide awake for the few chances he will probably have. He will also have to be able to reliably defend his own service game against arguably the best return player on the ATP Tour at the moment.

Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 2nd
Position in the seedings: 2.

The 25-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev had to go the full distance of three sets in his third and last group match on Thursday evening, whereby he had to fend off two match points and was on the court almost until midnight.

In the semifinals on Saturday, however, the world number two had a quiet afternoon. Just 79 minutes were needed to dispatch Norwegian outsider Casper Ruud 2-0 (6-4 and 6-2) in all form.

Won 26 of last 29 singles on hard court

This now takes Medvedev to nine consecutive victories at the ATP Finals, which he won for the first time in his career back in 2020 with an absolutely clean slate. The 25-year-old could now become the first athlete after Novak Djokovic, who celebrated four tournament victories in a row at the men’s tennis world championships between 2012 and 2015, to successfully defend his title.

In any case, his recent momentum clearly speaks in favour of it. Not only did the Moscow native already beat Zverev 2-1 in the round robin. The Russian has also won 26 of his last 29 hard-court singles matches.

Medvedev hardly gives up a service game

This strong run, which also led him to the highlight of his career so far this autumn when he won the US Open with an outright 3-0 victory over Novak Djokovic in the final, was made possible because of his almost unbreakable serve.

Only in the insignificant last group match against Jannik Sinner has Medvedev been successfully broken so far. The set loss in the 2-1 win over Zverev came after a lost tiebreak, before he did not even allow a single break point against him against Ruud in the semifinals. Accordingly, the Russian is now clearly favoured.

Alexander Zverev – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 5:6

There have already been eleven meetings between the two athletes so far and with an outright 2-0 win in Paris in the run-up to the ATP Finals and a 2-1 win in the round robin here in Turin, Medvedev now leads the way with six wins to the German’s five.

Alexander Zverev – Daniil Medvedev Tip

When it comes to Alexander Zverev against Daniil Medvedev, the prediction does have to take into account the strong form of the Russian, who has won nine consecutive matches at the ATP Finals and is also likely to be the more rested player after showing power in the semifinals. However, the German was convincing all along the line in his 2-1 win over world number one Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, showing once again that he can beat any opponent on a good day.

In addition, Sascha rarely lets anything go to waste in such important matches. In 2021 alone, he has reached five finals, all of which he has won without exception. In what is likely to be a very close match, it therefore makes a lot of sense to bet on his overall victory.

For Sascha to beat the Russian, there are betting odds of 2.72 on Alexander Zverev against Daniil Medvedev, which we play at Betano with five units.