Clear number for the defending champion?

Everything was set for a Russian semifinal at the Pala Alpitour in Turin. As winner of the Red Group, Daniil Medvedev was to meet his compatriot Andrey Rublev, who already had the upper hand in the first set with a commanding 6:2 win over underdog Casper Ruud. But then the Norwegian fought his way back in two sets and snatched victory in the end in a tiebreak.

With two wins over Norrie and Rublev, Ruud is now among the top four athletes on his debut at the ATP Finals, but he is the heavy underdog against the defending champion. In the run-up to the match between Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud, the odds are clearly in favour of the Russian.

It should be noted, however, that the Norwegian, who is well versed on clay courts, made things difficult even for Novak Djokovic in the first game. Ruud was also able to force the Serb into a tiebreak. Accordingly, we see a lot of value in betting on Daniil Medvedev against Casper Ruud, that the Norwegian will also give the Russian a tough fight.

A lot of value can be found in the bet on more than 20.5 games, which should come together not only in practically all constellations over three sets, but also in many two-set matches.

Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world ranking: 2nd
Position in the seedings: 2.

The 25-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev seems to be in his absolute element at the ATP Finals. He already prevailed at the Men’s Tennis World Championships a year ago on 22 November 2020 in London.

It was the first really big major title for the Muscovite, which he could even top this year. Just over two months ago, he triumphed in the final of the US Open against superstar Novak Djokovic 3:0.

Another perfect preliminary round at the ATP Finals

Medvedev travelled to Turin, where the ATP Finals are currently taking place for the first time, with a correspondingly high level of self-confidence. He played a perfect preliminary round, winning all three matches and only dropping two sets.

He also showed his ambition in the third group match. Medvedev was already the group winner and could have taken it easy against the motivated and already eliminated local hero Sinner. Instead, the world number two played a top-class match with the Italian over two and a half hours with two tiebreaks, in which Medvedev fended off two match points and won 2-1 in the end.

Won 25 of his last 28 singles matches

All in all, practically all the numbers now speak in favour of the Russian. Not only has Medvedev won eight matches in a row at the ATP Finals, but his recent record is almost flawless. He has won 25 of the last 28 singles matches he has played since the start of the summer hard court season.

Accordingly, the role of favourite is clearly assigned to the defending champion.

Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 8th
Position in the seedings: 8.

Norwegian Casper Ruud, 22, first appeared on the big stages in 2020 when he won his first singles title at the ATP Buenos Aires and reached the semifinals of a Masters tournament for the first time at the 2020 Rome Masters.

This year, things will go even higher for the shooting star, because after his good performance at the ATP Finals, it is clear, regardless of the outcome of the tournament, that he will go into the winter break at least as world number eight.

Five tournament wins already in 2021

Curiosity is the fact that Casper Ruud did not make the leap into the top 10 of the ATP world rankings for the first time by reaching a semi-final or final at a Grand Slam or winning a major title at a Masters tournament, which is associated with 1000 points for the ranking.

Instead, the Norwegian simply won five ATP Tour 250 tournaments, which – as the name suggests – are worth 250 points each. Apart from that, the 22-year-old only reached the semi-finals of two clay-court Masters in Monte Carlo and Madrid. All the more surprising, then, that he has made it to the semi-finals of the ATP Finals.

Two strong comebacks in a row

Instead of being eliminated from the Green Group with three defeats, Ruud beat Cameron Norrie in the second match after losing the first set 1:6 with two straight sets 2:1, before he managed the next comeback against Rublev after a weak first set.

So if the Norwegian also loses relatively clearly in the first set against Medvedev, that is by no means an indication that the world number eight will not be able to fight back against the defending champion. There is therefore a lot to be said for our tip of more than 20.5 games for Daniil Medvedev against Casper Ruud.

Daniil Medvedev – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 2:0

The two players have faced each other twice so far, and in both cases Daniil Medvedev won outright 2-0, most recently giving the Norwegian no chance at the ATP Mallorca 2021 on grass at 7-5 and 6-1. It was a little closer at the ATP Cup 2020 on hard court, when a total of 22 games were played in a 6:3 and 7:6 match.

Daniil Medvedev – Casper Ruud Tip

When it comes to Daniil Medvedev vs Casper Ruud, the prediction does have to take into account the momentum of the Russian, who has won eight matches in a row at the ATP Finals and has only lost three of his last 28 singles matches at all. However, the Norwegian has great comeback qualities and can play liberated even if he loses the first set by a wide margin and perhaps hope for the next comeback.

It is true that the Russian has hardly surrendered any service games so far. But if Ruud also holds his serve and forces the defending champion into a tiebreak, that could well be the key to winning the set. After all, Medvedev has a negative tiebreak record in 2021.

We recommend betting on more than 20.5 games, which would become all the more likely in the event of a tiebreak in the course of the match.