Do the Pats stay hot in Atlanta?
The losers of the last game day (Falcons) receive one of the winners of Game Week 10 (Patriots). The signs seem clear – especially since the New England Patriots have now won four in a row.
Most recently, the Browns were defeated 45-7. Atlanta, on the other hand, went down by 3:43 in Dallas, which was one of the highest defeats of the season so far. Can they recover from that?
Generally, Matt Ryan and his Falcons have to be trusted to at least perform much better than they did on Sunday, but the Pats are not only one of the hottest teams coming to Georgia, but also their kryptonite opponent.
We all remember the 2017 Super Bowl when New England pulled off that sensational comeback – much to the Falcons’ chagrin. Since the Pats have even won the last six head-to-head duels overall, our prediction for Falcons vs. Patriots is another success for Coach Belichick’s men.
Kickoff of the Thursday Night Game is at 02:20 on Friday night in Atlanta. The game will be broadcast live by DAZN.
Atlanta Falcons – Statistics & current form
The Falcons have not been a bad team in recent years or even decades. However, they have an opponent against whom they have not won since 1998: the New England Patriots.
The most painful defeat was certainly the lost Super Bowl in 2017 after an interim 27:3 lead. The entire franchise has still not fully recovered from that. With that, revenge cravings will also be at play in one or the other on Thursday.
Matchup clearly speaks against Atlanta
But it might be difficult, because not only the past speaks against the Falcons, but also the present. They concede 11.5 points more per game than the Pats, which is worlds away by NFL standards.
At the same time, however, they score 7.7 points less than New England (19.8 to 27.5), which theoretically puts the deficit at 19.2 points. The Pats’ favourite status isn’t that big, but the 6.5 set by the oddsmakers strikes us as very little.
Can the Falcons get a handle on their running game?
For the Falcons to even have a chance, they have to get over 100 rushing yards. Because relying on Ryan’s arm all the time is not going to work. Because then the opposing defence sets you up and intercepts him time and time again.
Ryan’s eight interceptions already this season speak for themselves. That’s why we don’t think the Falcons can turn it around against the Pats and see betting on the Patriots and a lot of points from the team as the best betting options on Atlanta vs. New England.
Key Players:
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Cordarrelle Patterson
WR: Russell Gage
TE: Kyle Pitts
K: Younghoe Koo
New England Patriots – stats & current form
Mac Jones is the real deal. That’s not only the conclusion of most pundits after the final day of play, but the betting public now sees him as the best pick among quarterbacks in the draft class of 2021.
The way he managed to fillet the Browns, who were actually so strong, time and again on Sunday already brought trains of Tom Brady to Boston at Gillette Stadium. There could be something big there if it continues at this rate of development.
Defense reaches out to Jones
Along the way, though, Jones will also get strong support from the Pats’ defense, which is second-best in the league with just 17.7 points conceded per game. Their upcoming opponent from Atlanta, for example, concedes 11.5 points more on average.
Since we also currently rate Mac Jones’ offense as superior to Ryan and the Falcons, there’s not much to suggest a close game on Thursday. The Pats are also clearly ahead in turnover differential, +3 to -5.
Harris likely out for another game
Not even the absence of their starting running back Damien Harris could stop the Patriots recently, so it shouldn’t worry them much that the runner probably won’t be out of Concussion Protocol until Thursday either.
With Rhamondre Stephenson, running back No. 3 simply stepped in with two touchdowns and 100 rushing yards. Freely according to the motto: Next man up. So in Falcons vs. Pats, the odds on New England are also clear to take advantage of for Thursday, in any combination.
Key Players:
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Jonnu Smith
K: Nick Folk
Atlanta Falcons – New England Patriots Head-to-head / H2H record
We’ve mentioned the Super Bowl of 2017 several times, but even before and after that, the Falcons barely saw a cut against the Patriots. Atlanta’s last win against New England was over 23 years ago.
Another reason to bet on the Pats on Thursday. However, since we are not entirely conclusive whether their offense or their defense will put the stamp on the game, betting on 3+ Pats tocuhdowns is our favourite betting option on Falcons vs Patriots.
Most recently, they scored five against the Browns. However, handicap bets of -6.5 points are also worth considering. We do expect a win with a difference of over one score.
Atlanta Falcons – New England Patriots Tip
The Pats score significantly more points per game than the Falcons (+7.7) and concede significantly less (11.5 less per game). Those numbers alone make it clear why betting against New England is not an option for Thursday.
Instead, everything that speaks in favour of the Pats can be tackled: handicap bets, over-points and bets on more than three touchdowns (passing + rushing + defence + special team). That number should be well and truly reached.
An alternative bet is a rushing touchdown by Rhamondre Stephenson. After two of those against the Browns, he should also find the end zone again against the susceptible Falcons defence.
