Will Rublev upset the Djoker?

The ATP Finals 2021 will be held for the first time in Turin, Italy. The venue has changed, but the mode has not. On the second day of group play, there will be a winner’s and a loser’s duel. The afternoon belongs to the winners and the fans can look forward to an absolute thriller. The big tournament favourite Novak Djokovic will meet the Russian Andrey Rublev. The winner of the match will most likely – depending a little on the result in the second group match – secure his semi-final ticket early on.

The “Djoker” will finish 2021 as world number one for the seventh time and is considered a big tournament favourite by the bookmakers. Djokovic only had a few problems with debutant Casper Ruud in the first set. Rublev, on the other hand, was in excellent form and did not give the Greek Tsitsipas the slightest chance. In view of this dominant performance, betting odds of 4.00 for Djokovic against Rublev are extremely tempting.

The indoor court in Turin has proved to be a very fast indoor surface on the first two days of the tournament, where the balls hardly bounce and the player who can press the pace first often has the advantage. Rublev’s varied game can certainly pose problems for the Serbian here.

Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form

Novak Djokovic was denied the big crown this year. The defeats at the Olympics and in the US Open final were two extremely bitter moments for the former Becker protégé. Nevertheless, this year his great fans see themselves confirmed in the thesis that Djokovic is the greatest tennis player of all time. For the seventh time this year, Novak Djokovic will finish the season at number one, more times than anyone before. In doing so, he also surpassed his childhood idol Pete Sampras, who called Djokovic the “greatest of all time” on the ATP website.

Last won finals in 2015

While his two long-time rivals had to end the 2021 season early, Novak Djokovic is still in the record hunt. Should he become the first title winner in Turin, he would equal Roger Federer in the number of ATP Finals title wins. So far, the Serb has won the year-end tournament five times, and it is impressive to note that the last tournament victory was six years ago.

Should he go the entire week without defeat, the current season would have one more thing in common with 2015. Djokovic would then have lost just six matches in an entire season, as he did six years ago. His 51:6 match record is impressive and ensured five more tournament victories in this calendar year. The 34-year-old Serb now has 86 ATP tournament victories on his CV.

Shock moment against Ruud

The opening match of the finals was an unequal duel with debutant Casper Ruud. However, the young Norwegian was able to put the first exclamation mark when he immediately took the service from Djokovic. The Serb slipped, lost his racquet, picked it up again and finished the point. Fortunately, the fall had no consequences. It was to be Ruud’s only break point of the entire match, as Djokovic only surrendered twelve points on his own service.

Novice Casper Ruud was increasingly forced into the defensive from the middle of the first set and could no longer do much. The match against Rublev will certainly be a more difficult task for Djokovic. A set loss by Djokovic – as in Paris against Hurkacz or Medvedev – would not be a big surprise. Lucrative odds of over 2.00 are offered between Djokovic and Rublev for this tip.

Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form

Novak Djokovic’s emphatic opening win was to be expected on Monday, but Andrey Rublev’s performance in the evening session was a bit of a surprise. After the Russian came to last year’s Tour Finals in top form and then disappointed completely, things seem to be going completely the other way in 2021. The 24-year-old’s recent results have certainly caused concern, with Rublev winning just two of his last seven ATP matches.

Bearish percentage on serve

Rublev was considered a slight underdog against Tsitsipas, who has been struggling with shoulder problems lately. There was no sign of that, but the Greek was in a losing position from the start. Rublev proved to be a power, especially on his serve. In the first set, the first serve went into the court 23 out of 25 times. Rublev developed more and more enthusiasm for the game and as soon as Tsitsipas was a little short, Rublev hit the winners around his ears.

The Sky commentator even went so far as to describe the conditions in the hall as perfect for Rublev and that he would not know which tournament might suit him even better due to the external circumstances. The bounce is relatively low, the temperatures in the hall make for an extremely fast court and if Rublev then hits the lines, he will be able to hurt any opponent. Rublev was able to win 90 percent of the points on his first serve.

The temperature will probably be a little cooler in the afternoon session, but the winner’s duel between Djokovic and Rublev definitely offers a forecast in the Russian’s direction. There was no sign of his poor performance in recent weeks.

Indoor lies Rublev

Even at a time when Daniil Medvedev and Kharen Khachanov were in the top ten and Rublev was still ranked in the 20-30 range, many experts saw Rublev as the best chance of an upcoming Grand Slam triumph for a Russian player. Medvedev has now achieved this with the US Open, but Rublev brings a large repertoire with him to also win one of the biggest tournaments in the future.

His greatest strength is undoubtedly that he has no weaknesses. At 1.88 metres tall, he is not a service monster, but Tsitsipas was still unable to contain his service. Rublev is a very variable player who can do all kinds of things with the yellow felt ball. He feels particularly comfortable indoors, having won four of his eight ATP tournaments indoors.

Novak Djokovic – Andrey Rublev Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to Head: 0:0

It is a little surprising, but in fact world number one Novak Djokovic and world number five Andrey Rublev have never faced each other. The second group match at the ATP Finals 2021 in Turin will accordingly be a first.

Novak Djokovic – Andrey Rublev Tip

Certainly rightly, Novak Djokovic is the big favourite this week at the Pala Alpitour. Nevertheless, his competitors are also the best players of this year and especially Andrey Rublev does not seem to have as little chance as the current betting odds suggest. Value can certainly be found between Djokovic and Rublev when betting on the Russian, a small stake with a lucrative profit possibility is recommended here in any case.

Less risky, but still very promising, is the prediction on at least one set win for the Russian in Djokovic against Rublev. Rublev is extremely variable and has an outstanding angle game, but can also generate enormous pressure and knows how to break free from the defence. Often his head is a bit of a hindrance, but we definitely trust Rublev to win at least one set. It’s quite possible that Djokovic will have problems with Rublev’s game, especially at the beginning, as they are facing each other for the first time.