Showdown in Group C for World Cup ticket
Will the European champions be brought back down to earth? It is a danger that is certainly present, as two matchdays before the conclusion of qualifying for the upcoming World Cup in Qatar, Italy have by no means secured their ticket. However, this could change late on Friday night in the eternal city of Rome. In a rematch of the opening match of the last European Championship, Italy and Switzerland will face off.
This is the showdown in the fight for the Qatar ticket. The situation could not be more exciting, as both teams have 14 points after six matches. The first leg ended in a draw and Italy are only ahead of the Swiss on goal difference. If there is a winner on Friday, he or she will definitely play in the World Cup. The clear favourites are the home side, with betting odds of around 1.60 being offered for the Squadra Azzurra on Italy vs Switzerland.
If there is a draw, the big arithmetic begins, because then the goal difference on the last matchday will probably decide whether there is jubilation or sorrow. The Italian team has a slight advantage here as well, as they currently have a two-goal better record. The third international match between Italy and Switzerland in 2021 will kick off on Friday at 20:45.
Italy – Statistics & current form
Since Roberto Mancini took over the Italian national team in May 2018, the Squadra Azzurra have been unrecognisable. Catenaccio? Long forgotten. Attractive attacking football and a lot of playfulness ensured a months-long run of success. Italy played no fewer than 37 international matches in a row without conceding a single defeat, setting a new world record. The far more beautiful title than this world record, however, was winning the 2021 European Football Championship.
Nimbus of invincibility lost
However, Mancini’s team will no longer be able to extend their world record. In October, Italy suffered their first defeat in an international match since 10 September 2018 in the Nations League semi-final against Spain. It was also Gianluigi Donnarumma’s first ever international match in which he had to make more than one save.
Under Roberto Mancini, Italy conceded just 26 goals in 44 international matches and is thus the best example that a very stable defence can also be guaranteed with an attractive style of play. The Italian national team collected an average of 2.39 points in the last three and a half years under Roberto Mancini.
Personnel worries before the final
The enormous strain of the last weeks and months has made itself felt in many places and almost all teams are struggling with injury problems. This is also the case for Italy, as not only veteran star Giorgio Chiellini is unavailable for the final against the Swiss, but also top striker Ciro Immobile. Immobile has been in captivating form in recent weeks, but injured his calf and had to leave the national team early. Torino captain Andrea Belotti is likely to be up front.
Regardless of the absences, a nation like Italy has enough quality to compensate for them. However, the tried-and-tested automatisms will not be in place and so the odd mistake could well creep in again. After all, Italy conceded goals in three of the last five international matches. As Switzerland also have to play to win, it is worth predicting that both teams will score in the Italy vs. Switzerland match.
Predicted line-up of Italy:
Donnarumma – Emerson, Bonucci, Bastoni, Di Lorenzo – Jorginho, Locatelli – Insigne, Barella, Chiesa – Belotti
Last matches played by Italy:
UEFA Nations League A Championship Playoff
10/10 2021 – Italy 2 – 1 Belgium
10/06 2021 – Italy 1 – 2 Spain
WM Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. C
09/08 2021 – Italy 5 – 0 Lithuania
09/05 2021 – Switzerland 0 – 0 Italy
09/02 2021 – Italy 1 – 1 Bulgaria
Switzerland – Statistics & current form
The Swiss “Nati”, as they are affectionately known, have been at home among the extended world elite for many years. The Swiss cannot count on outstanding individual players, but always present themselves as a strong collective. At the same time, Switzerland often serves as a perfect example of integration, as the Swiss squad includes a number of “secondos” – second-generation Swiss, as it were.
Neo coach Yakin with big personnel worries
For Italy, the absences of Giorgio Chiellini and Ciro Immobile were mentioned, Marco Verratti should also be mentioned. Nevertheless, the home side can feel in a thoroughly fortunate position, because Switzerland’s lazaretto is considerably larger. Captain Granit Xhaka has been missing for a long time, and striker Haris Seferovic and the outstanding assist man Steven Zuber are also unavailable.
At the weekend, both Gladbach players Nico Elvedi and Breel Embolo were injured within a few minutes. Embolo’s absence in particular is a severe weakening after the Bayern shocker had been in outstanding form recently. Substitute goalkeeper Gregor Kobel also had to cancel his participation and thus Yakin had to become inventive. Among other things, he brought 18-year-old super talent Bryan Okoh from FC Liefering into the national team.
The quality of the Swiss squad is certainly hurt by these absences, but a team that achieves so much success through passion and the collective can still be expected to do well. Finally, there is also positive news: Denis Zakaria is now back to top fitness, Noah Okafor is in outstanding form and Ricardo Rodriguez will be brimming with confidence as a young dad.
We want to play to win
After the European Championship, long-time coach Vladimir Petkovic left the “Nati” and Murat Yakin was presented as his successor. A figurehead of Swiss football who, however, polarised time and again. He remained unbeaten in the first four international matches (two wins, two draws) and accordingly has a lot of self-confidence.
The preparation for Italy has been meticulous and Yakin is confident that his team has the necessary knowledge to leave the pitch as winners for the first time after a defeat and a draw in their third encounter with Italy. Yakin wants to prevent the goal difference from being the deciding factor, so Switzerland will probably take a certain risk. This means that there is a chance that the game will be a little more offensive than usual. Therefore, the bet on the over 2.5 is also possible for Italy against Switzerland.
Predicted line-up of Switzerland:
Sommer – Rodriguez, Akanji, Schär, Mbabu – Zakaria, Freuler – Vargas, Sow, Shaqiri – Okafor
Last matches played by Switzerland:
WM Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. C
10/12 2021 – Lithuania 0 – 4 Switzerland
10/09 2021 – Switzerland 2 – 0 Northern Ireland
09/08 2021 – Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Switzerland
09/05 2021 – Switzerland 0 – 0 Italy
Friendly match
09/01 2021 – Switzerland 2 – 1 Greece
Italy – Switzerland Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The list of direct duels between the current European champions from Italy and their neighbours from Switzerland is long. In total, no less than 60 matches can be found in the database, some of which date back more than 100 years. However, only the two matches from the current year are relevant for the probably decisive duel in the fight for the direct ticket to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Flashback to last summer – back then, the two teams also opened the European Championship at the Olimpico, Italy’s first step on the way to the title ended in a 3-0 victory. At the beginning of September, the two teams had the chance to take revenge in the course of the World Cup qualifiers, but the two teams went goalless. Jorginho failed to score from the penalty spot, among other things.
Italy – Switzerland Tip
More suspense is not possible and accordingly the head will play a role in the top match of Group C. Both teams have the pressure of failure in the back of their minds and know that any mistake could mean the World Cup ticket. Nevertheless, a destructive game is not expected, as both teams have shown recently that they are willing to take the reins in their own hands.
Once again, a goalless game without many scoring scenes is by no means to be expected, especially as the game progresses, both teams will be pushing for the decision. A “best shoot-out” on the last matchday (Italy in Northern Ireland, Switzerland at home against Bulgaria) is to be avoided. Therefore, the recommendation for the showdown for the World Cup ticket between Italy and Switzerland is that both teams will score.
