5 years after their last exit: Will City fail again in the League Cup?
The European Cup participants from England are really not to be envied at the moment. It’s been one blow after another for them these weeks. West Ham United and Manchester City, for example, are currently playing the second of three consecutive English weeks with six competitive matches in 14 days. No wonder, then, that cutbacks have to be made and competitions prioritised. The League Cup, also known as the EFL Cup, is certainly the least important of these.
It is all the more difficult to assess the chances of the respective teams advancing to the next round before the round of 16 duels. Accordingly, it is quite surprising that the odds on an away win after regular time are so low before the match between West Ham and Manchester City. Whether there is actually a promising value behind this can already be doubted without a detailed analysis.
In the run-up to the match between West Ham and Manchester City, the forecast has to take into account that Pep Guardiola will once again use numerous players from his own youth team. In the previous round, it was at most an improved C eleven that the Catalan sent onto the pitch and which nevertheless recorded an unchallenged 6:1 victory. However, the opponent just over a month ago was also a third-division team and not a home-strong Europa League contender…
West Ham – Statistics & current form
After West Ham United finished sixth in 2020/21, the best Premier League season this millennium, the team from the English capital is preparing to even top this very good ranking in the current season.
After nine match days, things are looking very good for the Londoners. Thanks to a record of five wins, two draws and only two defeats, coach David Moyes’ team currently sails from fourth place. Only three points are missing on the upcoming opponents and reigning title holders Manchester City (3rd).
Hammers greet from 4th place in the Premier League
With the Hammers’ good form, which is further evidenced by their narrow 1-0 home win over Tottenham at the weekend, it is therefore ill-advised to play the too-low odds on the Citizens winning after 90 minutes between West Ham and Manchester City.
Particularly as the Londoners have already narrowly eliminated City rivals Manchester United 1-0 in the previous round, underlining their own ambitions to bring a title back to the capital’s East End for the first time since 1980 (when it was the FA Cup).
60,000 spectators expected at London Stadium
Another interesting statistic that should encourage Irons fans ahead of Wednesday night’s match is that their team have come out on top in two of their last three head-to-head League Cup clashes against reigning title holders to progress to the next round. Moyes’ side could also make history, as no team since 1977/78 has managed to beat both Manchester clubs in the same EFL Cup season.
The 58-year-old Scot will certainly make changes on the Hammers’ bench in the fifth game in review of the last ten days. But we don’t believe in a pure B eleven, given the heightened expectations around the London Stadium. Rarely has the chance been greater to beat ManCity in a knockout match at national level. Especially in front of a sell-out crowd. Around 60,000 spectators will be there to support the home team on Wednesday.
Predicted West Ham line-up:
to follow…
Last matches of West Ham:
Premier League
10/24 2021 – West Ham 1 – 0 Tottenham
Europa League Grp. H
10/21 2021 – West Ham 3 – 0 KRC Genk
Premier League
10/17 2021 – Everton 0 – 1 West Ham
10/03 2021 – West Ham 1 – 2 Brentford
Europa League Grp. H
09/30 2021 – West Ham 2 – 0 Rapid Wien
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
On the island, the League Cup is often referred to as the “Worthless Cup”. Of course, the Carabao Cup, as it has been called since 2017 thanks to a name sponsorship, has nowhere near the status of the FA Cup, but some top teams would certainly be happy if they could look back on a similarly successful record in this competition as Manchester City, for example.
The Sky Blues are not only the reigning champions, but have also won the title in each of the past four seasons. Should the fifth trophy follow this season, Pep Guardiola and his team would enter the history books
Manchester City and the League Cup – it fits!
The fact that the Citizens were last knocked out of the League Cup almost exactly five years ago shows just how impressive the haul really is. To date, 21 duels have followed, in which the defending champions have always made it through. The Sky Blue and White have not lost in twelve EFL Cup away games. Moreover, no other team has scored as many goals as Manchester City since the start of the 2016/17 season. In total, there were even 19 more than the second best in this ranking.
From a purely statistical point of view, one could therefore even come to the conclusion that betting on an away win between West Ham and Manchester City is the right choice. However, we believe that the corresponding odds do not include any attractive value.
Will Guardiola field an improved C eleven again?
In our opinion, the odds on the outsiders advancing are far too high, especially since City coach Guardiola has already announced that many academy players will again get their chance from the start. But it remains to be seen whether they will be ready to counter an internationally and nationally experienced team in front of 60,000 frenetic fans at the London Stadium.
The good form with only one defeat in the last twelve matches does not change much, because the team that has won several times will not be comparable with the formation on Wednesday evening. Players like Egan-Riley, Mbete-Tatu, Lavia, Burns or Palmer could be in the starting eleven instead of some key players who are likely to get a break regarding the upcoming three matches (Crystal Palace, Bruges, Manchester United).
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
to follow…
Last matches of Manchester City:
Premier League
10/23 2021 – Brighton 1 – 4 Manchester City
Champions League Grp. A
10/19 2021 – Club Brugge 1 – 5 Manchester City
Premier League
10/16 2021 – Manchester City 2 – 0 Burnley
10/03 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 2 Manchester City
Champions League Grp. A
09/28 2021 – Paris Saint-Germain 2 – 0 Manchester City
West Ham – Manchester City Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
In four meetings in the League Cup, West Ham United have yet to win against Manchester City. In 1984/85 in the third round and in 2013/14 there were both first and second legs, with a total of three City victories and one draw. So on Wednesday night the teams will meet in a real do-or-die match for the first time in this competition.
By the way, the Citizens already had to experience how difficult it is to triumph at the London Stadium last season, when they had to settle for a 1-1 draw in the league. It was, however, the only draw in the last eleven competitive matches between the two teams. The other ten games have all gone to the Sky Blues, who have scored a whopping 33 goals in that span.
West Ham – Manchester City Tip
On paper, pretty much everything points to betting odds paying off on the visitors from the industrial city between West Ham and Manchester City. Not only have the Citizens not been eliminated from the League Cup for five years, celebrating four consecutive title wins, but they have also landed a whopping ten victories in the last eleven meetings between these teams.
Nevertheless, we predict an exciting course of events and a possible “upset” for the third-round match on Wednesday evening. The good form of the Hammers, for example, who have won six of their last seven competitive matches and can also count on an impressive crowd of 60,000 spectators at the London Stadium, speaks for such a surprise coup.
In addition, Pep Guardiola will rotate heavily and once again give some youth players the opportunity to prove themselves on the big national stage. That went well against a third division side a month ago; now, against the Irons, who knocked Manchester United out of the competition in the previous round, they face their first elimination since 2016!
We’re going for it between West Ham and Manchester City with a tip on the Londoners reaching the next round
