Will the Milan defence be able to hold out against Porto?
After two matches in Group B of the UEFA Champions League, both FC Porto and AC Milan are still winless. Both therefore occupy third and fourth places and now need a win to make another charge at group heads Liverpool and Atlético Madrid.
There are even odds available ahead of the match between Porto and AC Milan. By a razor-thin margin, the Dragões are favourites. However, in four home games against the Rossoneri so far, they have never managed a win before (three draws, one defeat).
The striking thing about the head-to-head comparison between the two teams is that in seven of the nine encounters, a maximum of two goals were scored. In the same number of matches, goals were scored by a maximum of one side.
Given that both teams have already conceded five goals in their first two group matches, it makes a lot of sense to bet on Porto against AC Milan scoring less than 2.5 goals.
Porto – Statistics & current form
After winning the domestic double in the summer of 2020, FC Porto finished second only to Sporting Lisbon this year. Sérgio Conceição was nevertheless allowed to continue his good work and was provided with one or two promising new arrivals.
After eight matchdays in the Primeira Liga, the interim result for the club, which has already won the Champions League twice in 1987 and 2004, is quite positive. The Dragões have picked up 20 points out of a possible 24 and are still unbeaten in league action.
First five goals conceded in eight league games
Because Benfica Lisbon picked up one more point, the Azuis e brancos (the blue and white) are once again only in second place. On the other hand, the Conceição eleven fought their way back to a respectable 1-1 draw away to defending champions Sporting.
The bright spot is the courted Colombian Luis Díaz, who has already scored six goals and set up another in league play, while the restructured defence is also basically in good shape. Only five goals have been conceded in eight league games so far.
Won seven of last nine home matches in CL group stage
Also in the top flight, Porto started basically well with a goalless draw at Spanish champions Atlético before a crunch 5-1 defeat at home to Liverpool last time out. For the first time in eight consecutive games in the Champions League group stage, the Dragões suffered a home defeat (seven wins, one draw).
Although the international home record still reads better than average, the Azuis e brancos are not really favoured.
Predicted Porto line-up:
Costa – Sanusi – Pepe – Cardoso – Corona – Díaz – Uribe – Grujic – Otávio – Taremi – Martínez
Last matches played by Porto:
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
Ac Milan returned to the UEFA Champions League as Italian runners-up after an eight-year absence, in which the Rossoneri remain the second most successful team behind Real Madrid (13 titles) with seven overall victories.
Stefano Pioli was therefore allowed to continue his good work and lead “Il Diavolo” into the 2021/22 season. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Hakan Calhanoglu left the Lombard club on a free transfer in the summer. However, with spending of around 70 million euros, the 18-time national champions strengthened themselves in a high-quality manner.
A near perfect start in Serie A
At the same time, the Rossoneri’s start to the season is quite respectable. In Serie A, AC Milan have picked up 22 out of a possible 24 points and are still unbeaten, although circumstances have been extremely adverse of late.
After the injury of substitute keeper Alessandro Plizzari, regular keeper Mike Maignan, who had been replaced by Ciprian Tatarusanu, was also affected. The 35-year-old did not cut the best figure in the 3:2 home win over Hellas Verona.
Only one win in the last nine Champions League games
Accordingly, it is important for the Rossoneri, who started poorly in the top flight with two defeats at Liverpool (2:3) and Atlético Madrid (1:2), to allow as few chances as possible. We expect the Italians to be defensively minded, which also favours betting on less than 2.5 goals against AC Milan.
Whether it will be enough to score at the Estádio do Dragão, however, remains to be seen. In any case, it is a fact that the international momentum of the Lombards is not too great. They have only won one of their last nine Champions League games (three draws, five defeats)…
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
Tatarusanu – Ballo-Touré – Romagnoli – Tomori – Calabria – Bakayoko – Bennacer – Leao – Maldini – Saelemaekers – Rebic
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Porto – AC Milan Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Head to head: 2 – 3 – 4
There are a total of nine meetings between the two teams and AC Milan lead the head-to-head comparison with four wins. Of the three away games at the Dragões, the Rossoneri have not lost a single match (one win, three draws).
Porto – AC Milan tip
Porto vs AC Milan prediction must take into account that both teams are still winless in Group B and are therefore under pressure. After all, the ambition of both former overall winners of the Champions League is to get through the preliminary round of the top flight in one piece.
Also because of the Rossoneri’s injury worries, we expect a guest who, after conceding five goals in the first two games, should be primarily concerned with the defence. Also with a view to the history – in seven of the nine duels between the two teams, a maximum of two goals were scored – we expect a rather low-scoring and tactical match.
We are therefore betting on under 2.5 goals, for which ComeOn are offering odds of 2.00 on Porto vs AC Milan.
