A hot battle for third place?
Both Slovakia and Slovenia have taken ten of a possible 24 points from their first eight games in Group H of the World Cup qualifiers. With a seven-point gap to current group runners-up Croatia, both have no mathematical chance of reaching the play-offs. Accordingly, this duel is all about prestige.
In the first leg on 1 September 2021, the nations parted with a 1-1 draw in Ljubljana. Ahead of the return leg on Matchday 9 of Group H, Slovakia vs Slovenia odds are swinging in the direction of the home side, who have, however, only won one of their seven international matches against the Slovenian side.
It is correspondingly complicated to use the three-way system in this duel, especially as there are no more chances for either team to finish second. Thus, only third and fourth place will be decided in this duel. For the coaches, a lot of rotation is conceivable in this situation.
Although both nations are by no means known for goal fireworks, we find the greatest value in betting on both nations scoring in Slovakia vs Slovenia.
Slovakia – Statistics & current form
Slovakia’s national football team was part of Czechoslovakia until 1993, winning runners-up titles in 1934 and 1962. Since Slovakia separated from the Czech Republic and became an independent team, however, the Sokoli (in German: die Falken) have only managed to qualify for a World Cup in 2010.
There, the current number 40 in the FIFA world rankings surprised everyone with a 3:2 first-round victory over the reigning world champions Italy, but then failed in the round of 16. It is already clear, however, that Slovakia will be eliminated from the World Cup qualifiers for the third time in a row.
Only two wins from the eight matches in the 2022 World Cup Quali
The main reason for the failure is the countless points dropped. Already on the first two matchdays, Slovakia failed to win against the football dwarfs Cyprus (0:0) and Malta (2:2). In total, only two of the eight international matches in Group H were won.
Although the Slovakian team was “only” defeated twice in four draws, because they were too seldom able to secure the three points, it is nevertheless clear two matchdays before the end of the group phase that a place in the play-offs is no longer mathematically possible.
No experiments in squad nominations
Accordingly, the only thing left to do in this home match against Slovenia is to have a decent send-off, win the Slavic prestige duel and achieve third place, which is ultimately insignificant.
Coach Štefan Tarkovič has nevertheless nominated his best players. Only 28-year-old Vernon De Marco can be considered a small surprise, but is likely to make his debut – if at all – only in Malta. A strong Slovakian squad will therefore be favourites for this home match.
Predicted line-up of Slovakia:
Dúbravka – Pekarik – Skriniar – Hancko – Satka – Lobotka – Rusnák – Duda – Hamsik – Bozenik – Mak
Last matches played by Slovakia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
10/11 2021 – Croatia 2 – 2 Slovakia
10/08 2021 – Russia 1 – 0 Slovakia
09/07 2021 – Slovakia 2 – 0 Cyprus
09/04 2021 – Slovakia 0 – 1 Croatia
09/01 2021 – Slovenia 1 – 1 Slovakia
Slovenia – Statistics & current form
The Slovenian team has also only been competing as an independent nation since the 90s and was previously part of the Yugoslavian selection. In the process, the Slovenians have already qualified for a major finals three times.
In 2002 and 2010, they reached two World Cups, although they did not make it past the preliminary round. In 2000, they played in a European Championship for the first and only time. Here, too, they finished bottom of their group in the preliminary round after one defeat and two draws.
Four of the eight matches in Group H lost
Recently, the Slovenian selection not only missed the two spiked European Championships. Slovenia is also once again doomed to watch at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, because with only ten points out of a possible 24, there is no longer any mathematical chance of finishing second.
Although Matjaž Kek’s team has won three of its eight group matches so far, it has already lost four of them. Nevertheless, of the last seven international matches, only the two duels with Croatia (0:3) and Russia (1:2) have been lost (three wins, two draws).
Three of the previous seven international matches won against Slovakia
In principle, the southern Slavs are in good form, which is why betting on an away win in Bratislava cannot be categorically ruled out for Slovakia against Slovenia. After all, the Slovenian national football team has won three of its seven matches against the Slovaks so far.
In addition, Matjaž Kek is in no hurry to make a change. Although there are a few new faces in the squad, practically all the key players are on board and are likely to play a part in securing third place in Group H.
Predicted line-up of Slovenia:
Oblak – Mevlja – Stojanovic – Bijol – Balkovec – Kurtic – Lovric – Vuckic – Zajc – Verbic – Ilicic
Last matches played by Slovenia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
10/11 2021 – Slovenia 1 – 2 Russia
10/08 2021 – Malta 0 – 4 Slovenia
09/07 2021 – Croatia 3 – 0 Slovenia
09/04 2021 – Slovenia 1 – 0 Malta
09/01 2021 – Slovenia 1 – 1 Slovakia
Slovakia – Slovenia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 1 – 3 – 3
There are a total of seven international duels on record between the two nations and so far Slovakia have only managed to win one of those seven encounters: In the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, the Sokoli defeated the Slovenian side 1-0 at home in Trnava.
Slovakia – Slovenia Tip
For Slovakia against Slovenia, the prediction must take into account that both nations no longer have a chance of making the playoffs. Although both opponents are likely to be quite ambitious in their quest for third place in Group H, the fact that there is no ticket left to be awarded for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar could nevertheless mean that the final tension is not maintained over 90 minutes.
Accordingly, we suspect that sooner or later a team will make a mistake and fall behind, but then want to fight back at all costs. Against this backdrop, we see the greatest value in betting that both teams will score.
