A win is a must – World Cup runners-up visit Malta
The European Football Association has 13 tickets for the upcoming finals in Qatar. In October, the first two teams were already able to fix their tickets, now seven more teams will follow in the next few days. The current World Cup runners-up Croatia, who are currently only in the hunter’s seat in Group H, still have to fight for a ticket. Before the big showdown on Sunday, Hrvatska have to play an underdog. On Thursday evening, Malta and Croatia will face each other.
The days of absolute football dwarfs are long gone and even the absolute no-name teams are always good for a surprise. After all, Malta already have five points to their name, but nobody doubts the outcome of this match. For Malta against Croatia, betting odds between 1.10 and 1.15 are offered for the visitors to win.
A loss of points would in all likelihood also mean the end of Croatia’s direct ticket to the European Championship. A win, on the other hand, would fix the final against Russia next Sunday. So the motto is “first the duty, then the free skating”. The match in Malta starts on Thursday at 20:45.
Malta – Statistics & current form
Malta, an archipelago in the Mediterranean Sea with a population of just under 500,00, is by no means known for strong footballers. The country between Sicily and the coast of North Africa has far more appeal as a holiday destination. In football, the Red and Whites usually play only a subordinate role and victories are absolutely rare. In the long history of the Maltese national football team, only three players have scored more than ten goals.
The only star to make a splash in Belgium
At heart, head coach Devis Mangia’s team is an absolute no-name team. Almost all squad players earn their money in the beautiful homeland. In total, there are three legionnaires in the squad, of which 28-year-old Teddy Teuma stands out. The central midfielder is the captain of Belgian promoted side Union SG, who are leading the Jupiler League table in utter sensation.
Successful qualification
Not every team measures success in a qualifier by whether it ends up with a ticket to the respective finals. This is by no means the benchmark for Malta, because for the underdogs, basically every win represents a great success.
In Group H, Malta have a chance to avoid last place, as the Mangia eleven are ahead of Cyprus before their last two matches. With a 3-0 win at the beginning of September, Malta achieved a commanding success and also scored in the away match a month ago (2-2). The team’s fifth point came against Slovakia, its most successful qualification since the 1994 finals (also five points).
As the underdogs against the runners-up, Malta will try to keep the spaces tight and defend the goalless draw. The prediction on Malta +2.5 against Croatia is quite lucrative, as the visitors will also want to save their strength for Sunday’s match.
Predicted line-up of Malta:
Galea – Muscat, Borg, Pepe – Camenzuli, Teuma, Caruana, Attard – Grech, Mbong – Montabello
Last matches played by Malta:
WM Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
10/11 2021 – Cyprus 2 – 2 Malta
10/08 2021 – Malta 0 – 4 Slovenia
09/07 2021 – Russia 2 – 0 Malta
09/04 2021 – Slovenia 1 – 0 Malta
09/01 2021 – Malta 3 – 0 Cyprus
Croatia – Statistics & current form
The combination of Zlatko Dalic and Croatia is a pure success story. He took over at short notice before the last qualifying match for the 2018 World Cup, celebrated a victory, led his homeland to the World Cup and only had to admit defeat to France in the final.
Only conceded three goals in qualifying
Three years on, Croatia have largely had a makeover, with many players having reached the end of their careers by the 2018 World Cup. Veteran Luka Modric, at 36, is still a force to be reckoned with, but otherwise more and more young players are coming to the fore. Josko Gvardiol, Josip Stanisic, Luka Sucic, Luka Ivanusec and Borna Sosa are expected to shape the future generation.
At the moment, however, Croatia still presents itself with a good mixture of routine and talent. The defence is particularly strong at the moment, as Dalic’s team conceded only three goals in the first eight qualifying matches. Two of those three goals came in the 2-2 draw against Slovakia a month ago. A loss of points that meant Croatia had to relinquish top spot in the standings to Russia.
The defence can still be seen as a major showpiece, so betting on a win for the visitors between Malta and Croatia is obvious. The bookmakers are offering around 1.60 for this bet.
However, a storming run by the guests is not to be expected. Croatia has often presented itself as a results-oriented team in recent years. Especially in view of the showdown against Russia, it is important to save your energy. For Malta against Croatia, betting on a score below 2.5 at odds of over 2.50 is certainly lucrative.
Predicted line-up of Croatia:
Livakovic – Barisic, Gvardiol, Vida, Stanisic – Brozovic – Perisic, Pasalic, Modric, Ivanusec – Kramaric
Last matches played by Croatia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
10/11 2021 – Croatia 2 – 2 Slovakia
10/08 2021 – Cyprus 0 – 3 Croatia
09/07 2021 – Croatia 3 – 0 Slovenia
09/04 2021 – Slovakia 0 – 1 Croatia
09/01 2021 – Russia 0 – 0 Croatia
Malta – Croatia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Looking at the head-to-head comparison between these two teams is not at all surprising. After all, this clash has already taken place nine times in World Cup or European Championship qualifying matches. In the qualifiers for the 2006 finals in Germany, Malta drew 1-1 at home to the Croats. The favourites won each of the other eight matches, with the Croats struggling for an hour in the first leg at the end of March before three goals gave them an emphatic 3-0 win.
Malta – Croatia tip
The match in Malta is undoubtedly a duel between David and Goliath. For the runners-up, a win is an absolute must if they are to book their World Cup ticket against Russia on Sunday. But for a lucrative chance to win, a prediction away from the 1X2 match outcome must be made for Malta vs. Croatia.
The choice falls on the bet on the under 2.5 already touched on above. There is no doubt that Croatia has the quality to score three goals against the glaring underdogs, even if it is goalless for a long time, as in the first leg. And yet, with Malta against Croatia, this prediction seems very lucrative.
The betting odds are set too high, because the Dalic team can be expected to go into “administration mode” as the game progresses and no longer look for a direct approach to the goal.
