Will the Spaniards reach the group final?

1974 was the last time a World Cup was held without the Spanish national team. Almost 50 years later, the 2010 title holders are once again threatened with missing out on the field of participants. Although the “Furia Roja” still has successful qualification in its own hands, it is quite possible that coach Luis Enrique’s team will have to take a diversion via the play-offs.

In World Cup qualifying Group B, the finalists of the 2020/21 UEFA Nations League season have their backs to the wall. They need two wins in the remaining two match days to secure a direct ticket to Qatar 2022 as group winners. The task will not be easy, especially as a stumbling block may be waiting on Thursday evening. In the duel between Greece and Spain, however, the odds are clearly in favour of the visitors.

The Iberians are certainly not free of any doubts, however, as the supposed favourites had to settle for a meagre 1-1 draw against the Hellenes in the first leg. Now the pressure has increased considerably, which is why we can well imagine that a forecast of relatively few goals in the match between Greece and Spain will come true. Especially against the background of the traditionally good defence of the 2004 European champions.

Greece – Statistics & current form

The Greek national football team will fight for the last chance to stay in the draw for the World Cup tickets on Thursday evening. In order for Hellas to keep their hopes up for one of the first two places, they need a home win against the Spaniards. This is a difficult task, as the “Ethniki” have never won a home match against the former world and European champions in their own international history.

However, if we look at the recent performances of Dutch coach John van’t Schip’s team, it becomes clear that the Blue and Whites have definitely taken a positive development in recent years. In 24 international matches under the guidance of the 57-year-old football coach, the Hellenes have conceded only five defeats (eleven wins, eight draws). In the current season, they have only lost two games. Both were relatively close, against Switzerland (1:2) and Sweden (0:2).

The Greek defence knows how to convince

The centrepiece of the 2004 European champions is undoubtedly their defence. In only two of the ten international matches in 2021 did the back line have to fish the ball out of the net more than once. In five of the six qualifying matches so far, a bet on the under 2.5 would have been crowned with success. The last time more than three goals were scored in a match involving Greece was in the summer of 2019, so betting on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match between Greece and Spain is absolutely justified.

There is also a statistical encouragement, as only one of the last nine compulsory internationals at home has been lost. In eight of these nine games, less than three goals were scored, so it would have to be a case of the proverbial “devil” if the fans were to see offensive fireworks at the Olympic Stadium in Athens on Thursday evening.

Pantelis Chatzidiakos and Anastasios Bakasetas will not be available due to suspension. Especially the absence of the captain, most successful goal scorer and best provider of assists, Bakasetas, weighs extremely heavily and can hardly be compensated in the forward play. This is one of the reasons why we do not have much confidence in the home side and refrain from making a prediction in the direction of a surprise in the duel between Greece and Spain.

Predicted line-up of Greece:
Vlachodimos; Androutsos, Goutas, Tzavellas, Tsimikas, Giannoulis; Bouchalakis, Siopis; Mantalos; Pavlidis, Masouras

Last matches played by Greece:

World Cup qualifying UEFA 1st round Grp. B
10/12 2021 – Sweden 2 – 0 Greece

10/09 2021 – Georgia 0 – 2 Greece

09/08 2021 – Greece 2 – 1 Sweden

09/05 2021 – Kosovo 1 – 1 Greece

Friendly match
09/01 2021 – Switzerland 2 – 1 Greece

Spain – Statistics & current form

The Spanish national team experienced their resurgence in this international match year. First, the former world and European champions reached the semi-finals at the European Championship finals, where they narrowly failed to beat Italy on penalties. They then made it to the Nations League final, which also ended in defeat against France.

It is only in the World Cup qualifiers that things are not going according to plan for coach Luis Enrique’s men. Two matchdays before the end, they are only in second place in the intermediate rankings. The Iberians are two points behind the leaders Sweden. In other words: The supposed favourites must not allow themselves to slip up in Athens, otherwise the decision in Group B could be made before the showdown next week.

Spain must not allow themselves to slip up

The fact that the odds are swinging in favour of the visitors ahead of the Greece vs. Spain match is anything but surprising, especially as the Enrique eleven has only lost two of the 16 international matches played in the current calendar year. However, the Spaniards have struggled in their role as favourites time and again. The 1-1 draw in the first leg in Greece and the draws against Sweden and Poland in the preliminary round of the European Championship confirm this theory.

Furthermore, it has to be stated that the own offensive did not always live up to the high expectations. Only in exactly half of all 16 international matches were two or more goals scored. In as many as seven cases, a bet on the under 2.5 would have paid off. Even though the Furia Roja have to play for victory and need it just as badly, we are convinced that the win, if it should be one, will be quite close, either 1-0 or 2-0.

Ferran Torres, Ansu Fati, Gerard Moreno, Mikel Oyarzabal or Yeremi Pino all had to cancel their participation in the international matches due to injury. Youngster Gavi could therefore get a chance to start in midfield. Otherwise, only a few changes are expected in the starting eleven.

Predicted line-up of Spain:
Simon; Carvajal, P. Torres, Laporte, Alba; Koke, Busquets, Gavi; Sarabia, Morata, Olmo

Last matches played by Spain:

UEFA Nations League A Championship Playoff
10/10 2021 – Spain 1 – 2 France

10/06 2021 – Italy 1 – 2 Spain

WM Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. B
09/08 2021 – Kosovo 0 – 2 Spain

09/05 2021 – Spain 4 – 0 Georgia

09/02 2021 – Sweden 2 – 1 Spain

Greece – Spain Direct comparison / H2H balance

For the twelfth time, the two teams will face each other on Thursday night. With seven wins, three draws and only one defeat, the Spaniards clearly lead the direct comparison. Incidentally, the only defeat dates back to the 2002/03 European Championship qualifying campaign, at the end of which the Greeks famously won the title. The first leg in Spain ended in a 1-1 draw, one of four of the last six matches in which fewer than three goals were scored.

Greece – Spain Tip

With two matchdays to go, Group B is really exciting. However, it is not the Spaniards who are in pole position but the Swedes, who could clinch a direct ticket to Qatar 2022 with four points from their remaining two games. For the Iberians to get their group final next week, betting on an away win between Greece and Spain must pay off.

Admittedly, the odds are not bad at all, because in terms of quality, coach Luis Enrique’s team clearly has the advantage on its side. However, the favourites should not underestimate the task in the cauldron of Athens, because in the first leg, which ended 1-1, it became clear that the 2004 European champions can be an uncomfortable opponent.

We therefore opt for betting odds on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match in the duel between Greece and Spain. This is primarily due to the defensive strength of the home side, who should only have a chance if they manage to stay safe at the back for as long as possible.

At Unibet, we get an attractive 1.75 for the under 2.5 and play this with a stake of six units. With a little more courage to take risks, it is a conceivable alternative to play on the “to-nil” victory of the Furia Roja. We consider a 1:0 or 2:0 win from the perspective of the European Championship semi-finalists to be a thoroughly realistic result.