Compulsory treble for
The high-flyers from Ecuador welcome bottom-placed Venezuela on Matchday 13 of South American qualifying for the 2022 World Cup. Kick-off is at 22:00 at the Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
So far, “La Tricolor” has established itself as the surprise team of the qualifiers. But what makes Ecuador so strong? The answer could hardly be simpler: Home advantage. However, the men of head coach Gustavo Alfaro benefit from a very special bonus.
You can’t underestimate the visitors from Venezuela either. The home side have already had their fingers burnt once against the underdogs. Just under a month ago, they lost 1:2 away from home. Whether this will have an effect on the Ecuador-Venezuela forecast?
Ecuador – Statistics & current form
The primary focus of my tip is on the Ecuadorian national football team. With 17 points from twelve qualifying matches, the hosts are third in the table and – as of now – would have a lock for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
At an altitude of just under 2,800 metres
Few statistics read like Ecuador’s. In the World Cup qualifiers, home victories are usually offset by away defeats. La Tri” have won four of their five matches at home so far. Colombia (6:1) and Uruguay (4:2) were among the teams beaten. Chile held them to a goalless draw, while Peru even took all three points with a 1-2 win.
Ecuador’s capital, Quito, is situated at an altitude of over 2,800 metres. A circumstance that takes the air out of many visiting teams – literally. Even the big nations always find it difficult to hold their own here for more than 90 minutes.
But against Peru, this home advantage faded, because the Peruvians usually chase the leather on the “mountains” as well. In the match between Ecuador and Venezuela, my bet therefore focuses on a win for the favourites. With odds of just under 1.50, this title is up for grabs for the home side, but there is still a lack of value.
Bearish offensive
With 20 goals scored so far, Ecuador have cheered more often than any other team except Brazil (26). Even the Argentines (19), Colombia (16) or Uruguay (16) have to take a back seat.
Toluca kicker Michael Estrada was the leading scorer. The 25-year-old centre forward has scored five times so far. Gonzalo Plata and Enner Valencia have helped out with three goals each. The latter, however, is currently suffering from an ankle injury.
Ecuador’s likely line-up:
Dominuez – Estupinan, Hincapie, Torres, Preciado – Caicedo, Gruezo – Mena, Plata – Estrada, Angulo
Last matches played by Ecuador:
Friendly match
10/28 2021 – Mexico 2 – 3 Ecuador
World Cup – Qualifier CONMEBOL
10/14 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Ecuador
10/10 2021 – Venezuela 2 – 1 Ecuador
10/08 2021 – Ecuador 3 – 0 Bolivia
09/10 2021 – Uruguay 1 – 0 Ecuador
Venezuela – Statistics & current form
A look at the table reveals that Venezuela will most likely not be able to qualify for the World Cup this time either. Only eight goals were scored and 22 conceded.
The only nation to concede more goals is Bolivia (25). However, Bolivia has twelve points, while Venezuela has only seven. This means they are four points off second-last place, and nine points off a place in the World Cup.
Only defeats away from home
Venezuela’s home statistics don’t read too badly. From six matches at home, there have been two wins, one draw and three defeats. Coach Leo Gonzalez, however, is reluctant to send his team away. There, the team has suffered one defeat after the other – a total of six defeats in a row.
A catastrophic record, which makes it clear why the odds on a three-pointer for the visitors are around 8.00 when betting on Ecuador against Venezuela. For a draw, the best bookmakers will pay out more than four times the stake.
Never played in a World Cup
The Venezuelan football fan really longs for a World Cup participation. Venezuela is the only CONMEBOL member that has never been to a World Cup. And that is how it will remain. A maximum of 18 points can still be scored in the remaining six games. If coach Gonzalez’s men win every game, they would have 25 points.
At the last World Cup qualifier in South America, however, even that was not enough to secure at least fifth place and thus a play-off spot. At that time, Peru took that place – with 26 points.
Venezuela’s squad also lacks the quality to compete with the continent’s greats. Jan Hurtado (RB Bragantino), Darwin Marchis (Granada) and goalkeeper Wuilker Farinez (RC Lens) are the most notable. In the clash between Ecuador and Venezuela, it is hardly worth making predictions on the guests. Marchis and Co. have simply been too weak in the qualifiers so far.
Predicted line-up of Venezuela:
Farinez – Gonzalez, Ferraresi, Martinez, Hernandez – Rincon, Martinez – Machis, Penaranda, Bello – Hurtado
Last matches played by Venezuela:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
10/15 2021 – Chile 3 – 0 Venezuela
10/10 2021 – Venezuela 2 – 1 Ecuador
10/08 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 3 Brazil
09/10 2021 – Paraguay 2 – 1 Venezuela
09/06 2021 – Peru 1 – 0 Venezuela
Ecuador – Venezuela Direct comparison / H2H balance
Thursday Ecuador and Venezuela meet for the 31st time. So far, the Ecuadorian selection has celebrated 14 victories, with 11 draws. This compares to 11 full victories for the Venezuelan national team. The first leg in Venezuela was surprisingly won 2-1 by the hosts.
However, the last two meetings in Quito ended in victories for Ecuador. A 2-0 win in 2011 and a solid 3-0 win in 2016.
Ecuador – Venezuela tip
Ecuador have an important game coming up. With a win, Estrada and his teammates could take another step towards World Cup participation. A three-goal win against the last-place team in the table is therefore a must. The forecast between Ecuador and Venezuela is clearly pointing to a home win.
The visitors are in miserable shape away from home. In addition, the home side must win at all costs. To add value to a bet on the home side, Ecuador’s hunger for goals immediately catches the eye. With the second most powerful attack, the Ecuadorians are definitely capable of winning by more than a goal difference. A -1 handicap on the hosts in the match between Ecuador and Venezuela is subject to lucrative odds of 2.30
