Will Colombia surprise in Sao Paulo?

While European World Cup qualifying draws to a close in the coming days, only two-thirds of the 18 match days have been completed in South America. The Brazilians, however, can already plan for the World Cup finals in Qatar. They are already 15 points ahead of the fifth-placed team! In addition, the Selecao still have one more game to play, so that nothing can go wrong with regard to their expected participation.

The situation is a little more uncertain for “Los Cafeteros”, who in fourth place would currently clinch the last direct ticket to the World Cup, although they are also level on points with fifth place. After three goalless draws in a row, head coach Reinaldo Rueda would certainly not mind a surprise coup in Sao Paulo. However, if we look at the odds on Brazil vs. Colombia, it quickly becomes clear that the multiple world champions are the heavy favourites

It will nevertheless be interesting to see whether and how quickly Neymar and Co. find a way to put the stable defence of the world number 16 under pressure. Given the impressions so far, it is unlikely that the home side will win by a landslide, so it is not far-fetched to predict that the match between Brazil and Colombia will be relatively close and competitive.

Brazil – Statistics & current form

The Brazilian national football team is marching through the World Cup qualifiers on its home continent in a relaxed manner. Ten of the eleven matches they have played have been victorious. The only draw, however, was against the upcoming opponents Colombia. Almost exactly a month ago, the teams drew 0-0.

The impressive goal ratio underlines how dominant the team of national coach Tite has been in the qualifying process so far. Both the 26 goals scored and the only four conceded are among the best in the CONMEBOL zone. Only rarely have the multiple world champions delivered such convincing performances in the run-up to a final tournament in the recent past. It is no wonder that the Selecao are already considered by many experts to be the top favourites for the title in Qatar.

Brazil can already plan for Qatar

But before the “Verde Amarela” start thinking about the tournament in the winter of 2022, they will first have to deal with the upcoming compulsory tasks in the World Cup qualifiers. In view of the clear lead in the standings and the resulting lack of pressure, we would refrain from a simple bet on a home win between Brazil and Colombia on the night from Thursday to Friday German time, also due to the low odds.

Far more attractive, for example, is the betting market for the number of goals. Despite all the euphoria, it should not be forgotten that in five of the seven qualifying matches this year the 2.5 goal mark was not broken. In fact, three or more goals were scored in only five of the 14 international matches played in 2021. As the home side are now up against one of the best backlines on the continent, there is much to suggest that two goals will once again be the maximum.

When it came to nominating the squad, national coach Tite caused a few puzzled faces. With Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior, for example, he left an in-form winger at home, but called up Phillipe Coutinho for the Selecao again after more than a year. Nevertheless, the host nation’s likely starting eleven reads exorbitantly well, of course.

Predicted Brazil line-up:
Ederson; Royal, Silva, Marquinhos, Sandro; Fabinho, Fred; Paqueta, Neymar, Raphinha; Jesus

Last matches played by Brazil:

World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
10/15 2021 – Brazil 4 – 1 Uruguay

10/10 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Brazil

10/08 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 3 Brazil

09/10 2021 – Brazil 2 – 0 Peru

09/03 2021 – Chile 0 – 1 Brazil

Colombia – Statistics & current form

The Colombian team narrowly failed to win the Copa America this year. The semi-final against the eventual title holders Argentina was only decided in a penalty shoot-out after “Los Cafeteros” forced Lionel Messi and Co. into a respectable 1-1 draw. The fact that the small final was finally won 3:2 against Peru was only a small consolation.

Nevertheless, the performance at the South American continental championships once again underlined that the Colombians have long since arrived among the world’s elite. But that is exactly what they must now prove in the World Cup qualifiers, because their potential alone will not earn them a World Cup ticket. As fourth in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, every point counts. Coach Rueda’s team could be trembling right up to the end.

Colombia in 2021 very difficult to defeat

It would be all the more important to land a coup that perhaps no one is expecting at the moment. The away game in Sao Paulo is absolutely predestined for that. The Brazil vs. Colombia odds offered by bookmakers with a German licence alone show how complicated the undertaking will be. This is not least due to the fact that “Los Cafeteros” have only won two of their eight qualifying matches in the current calendar year. But: The Rueda team did not suffer a defeat in these eight games.

Therefore, the prediction on the outcome of the match between Brazil and Colombia is not our first choice, but the recommendation on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match. Colombia’s three most recent qualifiers have all ended 0-0, and in nine of their 15 matches in 2021 they have failed to score more than 2.5 goals. Judging by recent impressions, it is fair to say that “Los Cafeteros” have become a typical sub-par team.

In the November double, i.e. also in next week’s important home match against Paraguay, the coach will have to do without Radamel Falcao and Oscar Murillo, among others. Defender Davinson Sanchez will be included, although he has not always been a regular on the pitch at Tottenham recently. The attack reads well with the likes of Zapata, Luis Diaz and Luis Muriel, but five of the nine other teams have scored more goals than the world number 16 in qualifying so far.

Predicted Colombia line-up:
Ospina; Mojica, Sanchez, Mina, Cuadrado; Uribe, Barrios, Quintero; Diaz, Muriel, Zapata

Last matches played by Colombia:

World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
10/14 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Ecuador

10/10 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Brazil

10/08 2021 – Uruguay 0 – 0 Colombia

09/10 2021 – Colombia 3 – 1 Chile

09/06 2021 – Paraguay 1 – 1 Colombia

Brazil – Colombia Direct comparison / H2H balance

For the third time this year, Brazil and Colombia will clash. In the group stage of the Copa America, the Selecao narrowly won 2:1. The qualifying first leg, however, ended 0-0, and “Los Cafeteros” also failed in their 13th attempt to beat the multiple world champions in qualifying (seven draws, six defeats). Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that four of the last six qualifying matches ended goalless. The 0-0 draw at half-time is therefore very attractively rewarded.

Brazil – Colombia tip

In the South American World Cup qualifier, the clash between Brazil and Colombia will take place in the night from Thursday to Friday. According to the betting odds, the bookmakers have little doubt that the multiple world champions will land their eleventh victory in their twelfth match. However, the fact that the Selecao’s only draw dates back to the first leg (0:0) should give pause for thought.

In general, we don’t expect any offensive fireworks in the second leg at the Corinthians Arena. Both teams have very stable defensive lines. Brazil conceded only three goals in the entire qualifying campaign; “Los Cafeteros” have recently played 0-0 three times in a row. The Under 2.5 would be a common option, although we suspect an even more attractive value in another bet.

In view of the interesting statistics, which show that four of the last six qualifying meetings have ended goalless, we will try to bet on Brazil and Colombia to be 0-0 at half-time. The 2.95 at bookmaker Unibet can be played without a guilty conscience with a medium bet of four units.