Will it be another hot one between two old acquaintances?
An exciting pairing has emerged in the round of 16 of the Shanghai Masters 2023 when Tommy Paul clashes with Andrey Rublev – tip and odds are ready in this article. The winner will face either Ugo Humbert or Jeffrey John Wolf in the quarterfinals and in either case should be the big favorite to advance to the semifinals, where top favorite Carlos Alcaraz could be waiting.
In other words: Whoever comes out on top in this American-Russian round of 16 match at the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena will likely go far in the penultimate Masters tournament of the current season. However, the forecast for Tommy Paul against Andrey Rublev is somewhat more likely. After all, the Muscovite won a major title for the first time in his career at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters, is an established top-10 player and has had the most successful year overall.
While both players’ performance records on hard court so far in 2023 are very similar. Overall, however, Andrey Rublev clearly has the edge, performing much better on the other surfaces and, on balance, being the more complete player. This is also reflected in the head-to-head record between the two athletes. The Russian won four of the five meetings.
But it was always close between the two athletes. Three of their five duels went the full distance of three sets. Never before has a match been decided in fewer than 21 games. We therefore find a lot of value in betting that more than 22.5 games will be needed to determine the winner in Shanghai.
Tommy Paul – stats & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 12
Position in the seedings: 12
True, 26-year-old American Tommy Paul has won just one ATP Tour tournament in his career, when he prevailed 2-1 over Denis Shapovalov in a minor ATP 250 in Bastad, Sweden, in November 2021.
Still, the New Jersey man, who won the 2015 French Open boys’ singles in his junior career, is firmly entrenched in the top 20 of the ATP world rankings in the wake of a strong year.
First to reach a Masters quarterfinal three times previously
Responsible for this was his strong run at the 2023 Australian Open, when the American reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his career. In addition, he also reached the semifinals of a Masters tournament for the first time at the National Bank Open in Canada this summer.
At the Shanghai Masters 2023, Tommy Paul, who brings his annual record to 42 wins from 67 completed singles matches, could reach the quarterfinals of a men’s singles Masters tournament for just the fourth time in his 27th appearance in the main draw of a Masters tournament.
The return game still needs to improve
However, when it comes to Tommy Paul versus Andrey Rublev, the odds are stacked against the 26-year-old, who has only managed to win one of the five singles matches against his Russian round of 16 opponent so far.
To make matters worse, the world number twelve has also been shaky of late in the tournament. In the first round against Sebastian Ofner (ATP 49), there was nothing to worry about in a smooth 2-0 victory. Most recently, however, the American had to go the full distance of three sets against French underdog Arthur Fils (ATP 44). This was due to his not overly pronounced return qualities. In only 35% of all cases did Tommy Paul recently score on his opponent’s serve.
Andrey Rublev – statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 7
Position in the seedings: 5
The 25-year-old Russian Andrey Rublev has not been ousted from the top group of the ATP Tour since his rise to the top 10 of the ATP World Ranking in 2020. However, he had to wait quite a while for the really big successes.
The man who has reached the quarterfinals of nine Grand Slam tournaments so far without ever qualifying for the semifinals made it to the final of a Masters tournament in 2023 for the third time after the Monte-Carlo Masters in 2021 and the Western & Southern Open in 2021 and was also able to secure a Major title for the first time in Monte-Carlo.
Won four of five duels against Tommy Paul
The Muscovite is now looking to build on his triumph in Monte-Carlo at the Shanghai Masters on the home stretch of a generally good 2023 season, in which a total of 47 wins from 67 completed singles matches has resulted in two singles titles so far this year.
Here, the Russian will now meet an old acquaintance. So far, the 25-year-old has won four out of five singles matches against Tommy Paul, giving him an impressive 80% winning percentage against the American. Accordingly hot is the tip for Tommy Paul against Andrey Rublev on the advancement of the world number seven.
Without surrendering a service game into the round of sixteen
The course of the tournament so far also speaks clearly in favor of the Muscovite, who gave his two French opponents Quentin Halys (ATP 76) and Adrian Mannarino (ATP 23) no chance in two straight 2-0 victories. In the opening match, the Russian scored in 92% of all cases with the first service game and did not allow a single break point against him.
In the last round there were two break points for opponent Adrian Mannarino. However, Andrey Rublev managed to fend off both break points, thus remaining without a set loss at the Shanghai Masters 2023. The impressive service could already be half the battle against Tommy Paul, who is not exactly convincing with his returns.
Tommy Paul – Andrey Rublev Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 1:4
Five times both players faced each other on the ATP Tour courts so far and with four wins Rublev clearly leads the direct comparison. In this duel it was mostly hot. Three of the five encounters went the full distance of three sets, with the two matches decided in two sets also coming to a certain length with 23 and 21 games.
Tommy Paul – Andrey Rublev Tip
In general, the prediction of Tommy Paul against Andrey Rublev has a lot of merit. This is also supported by the “head to head” balance, which is 4:1 in favor of the Moscow player. In the end, however, both athletes are quite close to each other, especially on hard courts, which is why we think that betting on the favorite entails unnecessary risks.
We find the significantly greater value in betting that the sixth meeting of the two athletes will also have a certain length. Only one of their five duels was decided in under 23 games and it was by no means short either with 21 games. Therefore, we are again betting on a hard-fought match.
