Will Fritz once again fail against a top 10 player?
Only a year ago, Stefanos Tsitsipas reached the final of the Australian Open, where he missed out on the title by a clear margin of 0:3 against Novak Djokovic despite a close set. Now the Greek wants to have another good run at the Grand Slam tournament in Melbourne. On his way to the round of 16, there has not been too much trouble so far. Consequently, the bet on the Greek to win Taylor Fritz against Stefanos Tsitsipas is fundamentally a good one
After all, Stef also leads the “Head to head” comparison with three wins from four duels with Taylor Fritz. However, the last duel to date went to the American, who beat the Greek in 2023 on clay rather than hard court. Nevertheless, the cards have now been reshuffled in this top match in the round of 16. Nevertheless, our prediction for Taylor Fritz against Stefanos Tsitsipas tends to favor the Athenian
The fact that we believe the Greek has the advantage is also due to his significantly better Grand Slam record. At the Australian Open alone, Stefanos Tsitsipas won 24 of his 30 singles matches and reached at least the semi-finals in four of the last five editions of the traditionally first Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year. Taylor Fritz, on the other hand, reached the last 16 of the hard-court Grand Slam in Melbourne for only the second time since 2022. Back then, he was defeated by his current opponent in the same round.
But it was a tight affair back then too. Stef only fought back after trailing 1:2 by winning two sets in a row. This means that bets on a close match are once again conceivable. However, we find the greatest value in the win bet on the Greek
Taylor Fritz – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 12
Position in the seeding list: 12
The 26-year-old American Taylor Fritz has won a total of six singles titles on the ATP Tour in his career. He has only ever won a major title at the Indian Wells Masters. Otherwise, he has mostly lacked the final percentage points at major level.
The Californian has only made it to the quarter-finals twice at the four Grand Slam tournaments, where he failed to reach both the 2022 Wimbledon Championships and the 2023 US Open
Will Taylor Fritz fail against Stefanos Tsitsipas like two years ago?
For the second time in his career, Taylor Fritz has reached the last 16 of the Australian Open. Two years ago, he was beaten 3-2 by his current opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas in this very round, despite leading 2:1 at one stage. Two years later, the 26-year-old now has the chance to return the favor.
In principle, the American can certainly be trusted with something. Admittedly, the odds are against Taylor Fritz against Stefanos Tsitsipas. In the last two rounds, however, the world number twelve has only dropped a single set
Taylor Fritz with weak win rate against top 10 players
Once again, Taylor Fritz’s not too rosy odds against the top stars on the ATP Tour could stand in his way. When the Californian has come up against a top 10 player, he has only managed to win 19 out of 52 times. That corresponds to a win rate of just 36.5 percent.
If he now wants to improve this figure and reach the quarter-finals of the hard court Grand Slam in Melbourne for the first time, he will have to work on his return game first and foremost. Fritz recently won a total of 46 percent of return points in the third round against Fábián Marozsán, with which he earned 23 break points. However, he only capitalized on six of these break chances. In view of the fact that Tsitsipas certainly won’t offer him that many opportunities, he needs to step up his game here
Stefanos Tsitsipas – statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 7
Position in the seeding list: 7
The 25-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas has already won ten singles titles on the ATP Tour and can already look back on three major titles. After being crowned unofficial world champion at the ATP Finals in London in 2019, he won the Monte Carlo Masters twice in a row in 2021 and 2022.
The man from Athens was aiming for a hat-trick of titles in the Principality last year, but as the two-time defending champion he was beaten 2:0 by his current opponent Taylor Fritz in the quarter-finals. Now Stef could get his revenge for that
The Australian Open is in Stefanos Tsitsipas’ favor
In principle, the hard court of the Australian Open suits the Greek. Including his three victories, which have led him to the round of 16 quite reliably, the 25-year-old has 24 wins from 30 singles matches at the Grand Slam tournament down under.
Meanwhile, he hasn’t been knocked out early since 2020, when he lost to Milos Raonic in the third round. Stefanos Tsitsipas has always reached at least the semi-finals in four of the last five Australian Open events. A year ago, he even reached the grand final, where he missed out on his first Grand Slam, just as he did in the final of the 2021 French Open
Stefanos Tsitsipas steadily improved over the course of the tournament
There was not too much trouble on the way to another round of 16. He got off to a poor start against Zizou Bergs and Jordan Thompson in the first two rounds, losing the first set in each case, but then came back with a 3:1 comeback win in the course of a very concentrated performance.
In the third round, Stef finally dispatched the Frenchman Luca Van Assche 3:0 (6:3, 6:0 and 6:4) by every trick in the book in just two hours and four minutes. He took an average of one in two service games from his opponent and won 92 percent of all his service games. Values that could now also be the key to reaching the quarter-finals
Taylor Fritz – Stefanos Tsitsipas Direct comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 1:3
The two athletes have faced each other four times in a rated singles match on the ATP Tour and Stefanos Tsitsipas has prevailed on three of the four occasions – including in the last 16 of the Australian Open 2022. It was only in the quarter-finals of the Monte Carlo Masters 2023 that Taylor Fritz was able to record a victory over the Greek on clay for the first time
Taylor Fritz – Stefanos Tsitsipas tip
Our bottom line for Taylor Fritz against Stefanos Tsitsipas is that the Greek, who already knocked his American opponent out of the round of 16 at the Australian Open two years ago, will progress. Incidentally, the Californian has never made it out of this round Down Under before, while Stef has reached at least the semi-finals of the hard court Grand Slam in Melbourne in four of the last five years
The Greek also leads 3:1 in the “head to head” comparison and has won 24 of his 30 singles matches at the Australian Open, which is why we ultimately find the greatest value in betting on Stef to reach the quarter-finals.
