Can Fritz keep up with the rising level?

The lower half of the tournament tree has thinned out. What remains, besides top favorite Novak Djokovic, are three Americans, all of whom would love to follow in the footsteps of Andy Roddick, who was the last American player to win the men’s singles at the US Open (2003). However, it’s not too likely that Taylor Fritz will win against Novak Djokovic and that the ninth-ranked player will reach the semifinals, where either Frances Tiafoe or Ben Shelton will be waiting for him.

Instead, it can be assumed that the Djoker will once again go his way. After all, the Serb also leads the direct comparison against Taylor Fritz in all clarity. The 23-time Grand Slam champion has won all seven of his singles matches against the American and has not lost a set in six of these seven encounters. Accordingly, the forecast for Taylor Fritz against Novak Djokovic is interesting for the Djoker’s next outright win.

Both players, moreover, just faced each other in the quarterfinals at the 2023 Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati this summer. Novak Djokovic taught Taylor Fritz a lesson in the first set and easily advanced to the semifinals with a 2-0 win (6-0 and 6-4). The American, who has not lost a set at this year’s US Open, has sold himself very dearly so far. Against the Djoker, however, he is likely to come up against another insurmountable wall.

In our eyes, there is a lot of value in betting that the Serb will once again enter the semifinals of the US Open with an outright 3-0 victory in a match that is unlikely to reach excessive length.

Taylor Fritz – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 9
Position in the seedings: 9

The 25-year-old American Taylor Fritz once won the boys’ singles at the US Open in 2015. A success he would naturally love to repeat one day in the pros. After all, no American has won the men’s singles at Flushing Meadows since Andy Roddick (2003).

So far, however, the San Diego-born Californian has always been far removed from success at the US Open. In the run-up to this year’s event, he never made it past the third round, winning just six of 13 singles matches played.

No touchstone yet

Accordingly, his current run at the hard-court Grand Slam tournament in New York City has come somewhat out of nowhere on the one hand, and on the other hand, it could have been expected. After all, as the world’s ninth-ranked player, he has had little competition so far, as all the other players from the seedings had previously been eliminated.

Instead of being tested by Lorenzo Musetti (ATP 18), compatriot Christopher Eubanks (ATP 28), former Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic (ATP 337) or even Stefanos Tsitsipas (ATP 7), his opponents were Steve Johnson (ATP 205), Juan Pablo Varillas (ATP 74), Jakub Mensik (ATP 206) and Dominic Stricker (ATP 128). The result was four straight 3-0 wins.

49 of the 50 service games in the tournament converted

The serve in particular has been the 25-year-old’s absolute weapon so far. Taylor Fritz has played 50 service games on his commanding way to the first US Open quarterfinal of his career. He has only surrendered one of these 50 service games. That corresponds to a surreal rate of 98% of service games served, which was the guarantor for remaining without losing a set.

Now, however, the level is rising dramatically. After his hitherto highest-ranked opponent was ranked 74th in the ATP world rankings, the American now faces the designated world number one, who will take the lead again regardless of the outcome of the tournament. Also in view of the fact that he has lost all seven of his previous singles against the Djoker, the betting is now high on Taylor Fritz against Novak Djokovic that the Californian’s run will now come to an abrupt end.

Novak Djokovic – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 2

The 36-year-old Serb Novak Djokovic has already won the US Open three times in 2011, 2015 and 2018. Having already reached the final of all three other Grand Slam tournaments this year, he now naturally wants to play for the title again in Flushing Meadows.

At the moment, things are looking good for the Djoker, who is just two wins away from reaching the final, where there could be another epic fight with Carlos Alcaraz. After succumbing to the up-and-coming Spaniard in this year’s Wimbledon final, he just defeated the youngster 2-1 in the final of the 2023 Western & Southern Open.

Tested only by compatriot Djere

In that tournament, by the way, Nole beat his current opponent Taylor Fritz on the way to the final, where he won already his fourth singles title in 2023. Also in the quarterfinals, the Serb swept the American 6-0 in the first set.

This is an indication of how difficult it will be for Fritz to break his serve, which has been so difficult to break in the tournament so far, in this match as well. But the Djoker’s path to the quarterfinals was by no means straightforward. The 36-year-old celebrated a smooth 3-0 victory in the round of 16, just as he did in the first two rounds. In the third round against compatriot Laslo Djere, however, he had to come back from a 0:2 set deficit.

Victorious in all twelve US Open quarterfinals

But the fact that the Serbian superstar has overcome all these hurdles and now stands at 85 wins from 98 completed singles matches at Flushing Meadows speaks for itself, of course. Taylor Fritz’s odds against Novak Djokovic are correspondingly clear in his bid to reach the semifinals once again.

In the quarterfinals of the US Open, the Djoker also has a flawless record. Twelve times the designated world number one has already played a quarterfinal in Flushing Meadows. In all twelve cases, the journey continued in the semifinals…

Taylor Fritz – Novak Djokovic Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:7

Seven times both athletes have faced each other in a rated singles match so far and in all seven cases Novak Djokovic walked off the court as the winner in the end. The only exciting match so far was the Australian Open 2021, when the match went the full distance of five sets. In all other six cases, the Serb defeated Taylor Fritz without losing a set.

Taylor Fritz – Novak Djokovic Tip

Very clearly, the betting odds on Taylor Fritz against Novak Djokovic are swinging in the direction of the Serb, who has won all of the seven matches against the American so far and has remained without dropping a set in six of the seven cases. Just a few weeks ago, there was another crystal-clear 2-0 win for the Djoker (6-0 and 6-4), who we also see clearly in the role of favorite now.

Although the performance of Fritz definitely has to be appreciated, who has won all four matches so far without losing a set, the Serbian superstar might once again be a number too big for the American. We therefore recommend the prediction on the 3:0 victory of the 36-year-old for Taylor Fritz against Novak Djokovic.