Does Zverev have to play his best tennis right from the start?

After Alexander Zverev lost to eventual finalist Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16 in Indian Wells the previous week, the best German tennis player now wants to continue honing his form at the ATP Masters in Miami. The Hamburg native, who has fallen to 15th place in the rankings, has a feasible draw awaiting him at the start of the tournament.

Taro Daniel and Alexander Zverev will meet in the round of the last 64 on Friday evening. The bet on the current Olympic champion only brings odds of 1.20 at the top, which makes it quite clear that anything other than a commanding success of the former Grand Slam finalist would be the next bitter disappointment on the way back to the absolute top of the world.

The Thomalla friend’s opening hurdle does hold some risks, however, as his Japanese opponent was able to defeat Matteo Berrettini, a top player, in the previous week. The 30-year-old won a total of four matches in Indian Wells and thus fought his way out of the qualifying round into the third round. The hard courts in the United States usually suit the New York City-born right-hander quite well, which is why one should at least consider a prediction of a close match before the Daniel vs. Zverev duel.

Taro Daniel – Statistics & current form

For many years, Taro Daniel has been a fixture on the ATP Tour. However, the right-hander, who turned 30 in January, never made the big breakthrough. His career high is 64th place in the rankings. Currently, Daniel, who was born in the USA and plays for Japan, is only ranked 97th.

Consequently, the protégé of coach Sven Groeneveld had to play in the Indian Wells qualifier the previous week, but celebrated two three-set victories there and thus made the somewhat surprising jump into the main draw. There, too, Roberto Carballes-Baena and Matteo Berrettini, two higher rated opponents, were defeated. It was not until round three that Daniel lost to the strong Cameron Norrie, although he managed to win the first set against the Brit.

Taro Daniel presents himself in good shape

In view of the strong performances in Florida, the tournament organisers in Miami gave a wild card to the Top 100 player, who, by the way, has never been able to reach the second week at a Grand Slam. To start with, Daniel benefited from Arthur Rinderknech’s retirement when he was leading 4:1 in the first set.

Accordingly, the Japanese did not leave much strength. On the other hand, he was able to get used to the conditions in Miami for a good half hour and should therefore not be without a chance against his favoured opponent, especially in the first set. Since the self-confidence should also be there after nine victories from the past eleven matches on hard court, the odds on an exciting course of the first set with many games promise a solid value between Daniel and Zverev.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

The form curve of Alexander Zverev is gradually pointing upwards again. After struggling with the consequences of his ligament injury in recent weeks and months and being miles away from playing his best tennis, the former Grand Slam finalist has now returned to a solid form.

However, it still seems to be a relatively rocky road to the top, which also became clear in Indian Wells the previous week. After two wins against Cachin and the stubborn Finn Ruusuvuori (in three sets), Zverev was knocked out by the eventual finalist Daniil Medvedev. But it was against perhaps his best opponent that the German showed his best tennis.

Does Zverev need some start-up time according to experience?

In other words, the world number 15 has struggled in his opening matches. In eight of the 16 matches played so far in 2023, Zverev lost the first round. In seven of the eight cases in which the Olympic champion took a 1-0 lead in the set, it was a difference of no more than two games, and several times it was even the tie-break that decided the match.

The fact that the German, who is still mentally not at his best, will play his first match against a relatively unknown opponent on Friday evening will make things even more difficult. We therefore do not believe in a commanding first round, but are relatively sure that the odds on at least ten games in the first set will pay off between Daniel and Zverev.

Taro Daniel – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H record

These two players have never faced each other on the tour before. This also makes it a bit more difficult for the presumed favourites.

Taro Daniel – Alexander Zverev Tip

For the hottest German tennis hope Alexander Zverev wins the second Masters tournament in a row with a thankless task. Although all the betting odds before the second-round match between Daniel and Zverev point to a commanding victory for the Hamburg player, the Japanese has recently delivered good results in Indian Wells, beating Berrettini and taking a set from Norrie, among others.

Nevertheless, we believe the world No. 15 will advance to the next round here after a mediocre tournament week in Indian Wels. A two-set win is also close. Looking at the first round, however, we expect a hot fight that will probably end in more than nine games.

We therefore try it between Daniel and Zverev with the bet on more than 9.5 games in the first set and get odds of 1.76 at the top.