Does the Greek benefit from the freshness advantage?
The quarter-finals of the 110th Men’s Singles at the Australian Open were hotly contested. Three out of four duels went the full distance of five sets. The only exception: Stefanos Tsitsipas. While the competition struggled and Daniil Medvedev even had to fend off a match point when trailing 2-0 before his crazy comeback, the young Greek swept past his opponent 3-0.
So at least the Greek has the freshness advantage on his side in what is already his fifth Grand Slam semifinal. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the duel between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, the odds are swinging in the direction of the Russian world number two.
While world number two Daniil Medvedev is the top seed at the Australian Open 2022 due to the absence of Novak Djokovic, the Russian has also reached three Grand Slam finals and most recently won the US Open 2021, but he has struggled mightily to reach the semi-finals again.
With this in mind, we expect at least one very close match. The greatest value is offered by betting on Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev with an Asian handicap of +1.5 sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 4
Position in the seedings: 4
The 23-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas has only been a permanent fixture on the ATP Tour since 2017. However, he showed early on that he is one of the most promising talents by reaching the final of the 2018 Roger’s Cup as well as his overall victory at the 2019 ATP Finals.
In fact, the only thing missing from the player who has been firmly established in the top 10 of the ATP World Rankings for the past three years is a Grand Slam title, which he dropped in his only final to date at the 2021 French Open.
Failed 3-0 to Medvedev a year ago
Now Tsitsipas could make it to the final for the second time in the fifth semifinal he has reached, but the opponent standing in his way is the one against whom he was rudely stopped 3-0 in the semifinals of the Australian Open 2021 exactly a year ago.
The rematch of last year’s semi-final is therefore also the chance for the Greek to take revenge on his Russian opponent. In eight meetings, the 23-year-old has only defeated Daniil Medvedev twice.
In the quarter-finals, Tsitsipas converted every single break point
The Greek will again enter the semifinals as an underdog.
However, if Tsitsipas can confirm his recent performance, he is definitely one to watch. The 23-year-old did indeed hit just four aces in his impressive 3-0 win over Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals and did not impress with above-average service. On the other hand, the Greek was ice-cold with his break chances. He had four break points and all four he converted with nerves of steel, which ultimately brought him an outright three-set win.
Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 2
The 25-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev could win the ATP Finals in 2020 as the successor of Stefanos Tsitsipas and be crowned world champion. Added to this are four major titles at ATP Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and his overall victory at the US Open in 2021.
In fact, there is only one major goal left for the Russian: to move up to number one in the ATP world rankings. To achieve this goal, he only needs two more victories at the Australian Open 2022.
In total, Medvedev had to play 202 matches on his way to the semifinals
Just a year ago, Daniil Medvedev marched almost effortlessly to the final of the Australian Open, which he then lost 3-0 to Novak Djokovic. This year, however, the 25-year-old is finding it extremely difficult.
Already in his 3:1 victory over “local hero” Nick Kyrgios in the second round, the Russian had to sweat a lot before he lost another set against Maxime Cressy in the round of 16 and then needed a superlative comeback against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals. Trailing 2-0, the world number two even fought off a match point to win 3-2.
Backache, stomach ache and tired bones
With this milestone after almost five hours of match time, the Russian goes into his already fifth Grand Slam semifinal with a lot of tailwind. Nevertheless, with Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev, the tip for his fourth appearance in the final is anything but a foregone conclusion in terms of physicality.
After all, Medvedev complained not only of back pain during the tournament but also of stomach problems. He should be clearly favoured against his Greek opponent with his return and comeback qualities. However, the fact that he will definitely be the more tired of the two players should make it difficult for him to repeat his smooth 3:0 victory from a year ago.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 2:6
The two athletes have faced each other eight times so far and the Russian leads the direct comparison with six victories. Last year Medvedev won the Australian Open semifinals 3-0 against Tsitsipas. The Greek took revenge in the French Open quarter-finals when he won 3-0 on clay in the last meeting between the two players to date.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Daniil Medvedev tip
In the case of Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev, the prediction basically goes in the direction of the world number two, who went into the men’s singles as the favourite anyway and, despite several wobbles, also lived up to this role of favourite overall. However, the Russian, who is already a bit under the weather, already has 202 matches in Down Under in his bones. One of them was an almost five-hour match in the quarter-finals, while his current opponent celebrated a smooth 3:0 win.
It is clear that the Russian will offer something in this semifinal. If his Greek challenger can then be as ice-cold on break chances as he was in the quarter-finals, it all boils down to the next marathon match with an unclear outcome.
We see the greatest value in betting on the supposed outsider with an Asian handicap of +1.5 sets
