Who will keep their chances of reaching the semi-finals?
After the draw for the groups at the ATP Finals 2022, the only real question for many observers was whether either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Daniil Medvedev would accompany Serbian high-flyer Novak Djokovic to the semifinals.
Both the Greek and the Russian have won finals in the past. This year, however, they came off as losers in their opening match.
While Tsitsipas lost 2-0 to Djoker, Medvedev surprisingly lost 2-1 to compatriot and underdog Rublev. Both athletes are now fighting against an early exit. In the case of Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev, the tip tends to go to the Russian, who also leads the direct comparison with 7:3 wins.
Not only did Tsitsipas win their last meeting to date, but the Greek also beat Medvedev 2-0 in the round robin of the ATP Finals three years ago. However, it is noticeable that it has always been close between the two players. In five of their last six encounters, there was always at least one tie-break in the match.
Accordingly, the forecast for Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev is that it will be another hard-fought match with a certain length and at least one tie-break.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 3
Position in the seedings: 2
The 24-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas played a very convincing year overall. The Athenian won 60 of his 83 singles matches, which was enough for a total of two more singles titles. Besides a Masters title in Monte Carlo, Stef also won the Mallorca Championships.
The Greek is participating in the ATP Finals for the fourth time in a row. Right from his debut in 2019, he completely reached for the stars in the process and carried off the overall victory after wins over Medvedev, Zverev, Federer and Thiem.
Won five of ten matches at ATP Finals
Nonetheless, the Greek’s overall finals record is balanced. Tsitsipas last failed in the round robin two years in a row. Combined with his opening loss to Djokovic this year (6:7 and 4:6), he now has five wins and five losses at the year-end tournament.
But the train to the semifinals has not yet left the station. With a win over Medvedev, the 24-year-old could force a deciding match against Rublev and then advance to the next round on his own merits. He already beat Medvedev 2-1 (7-6, 3-6 and 6-3) in the semifinals of the Western & Southern Open in the summer.
Only one service game surrendered decided the opening match
The Athenian’s performance data is also quite convincing. In his opening loss to Djokovic, Tsitsipas hit more aces (nine in total), scored with his first serve 80% of the time and with his second serve 60% of the time. Stef only surrendered one service game in the entire match.
However, for Stefanos Tsitsipas to win against Daniil Medvedev, his defensive values will have to improve a lot. The Greek scored just 13 points on Djoker’s serve in the entire opening match. Even when the Serb had to come over the second serve, Tsitsipas only managed to win points 26% of the time. That is not enough at this level.
Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 5
Position in the seedings: 4
The 26-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev has already won 15 tournaments during his time on the ATP Tour. The man from Moscow even crowned himself Grand Slam champion at the US Open in autumn 2021 when he beat Djokovic 3-0 in a real match demonstration.
The 2022 season so far has been all the more sobering for the Russian, who initially only won the small Los Cabos Open in Mexico at the beginning of August. Only the week before last, Medvedev followed that up with his second singles title of the year at the Vienna Open.
Won 45 of 62 singles in 2022
In total, the former world number one has 45 wins from 62 singles played in the calendar year 2022. At the ATP Finals, many experts nevertheless saw the overall winner of 2020 as a big favourite. Medvedev’s back is all the more against the wall after the 1-2 defeat against his compatriot Rublev.
It is clear that the 26-year-old must defeat the Greek, who entered the Red Group as the top seed, to stay in the race. At least the betting companies believe the Muscovite can do that. In the case of Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev, the odds are swinging in his direction.
The second serve as the crux in the opening match
Medvedev also shone in the opening match with a total of 24 aces, but missed a lot on his own serve, which only arrived 67% of the time. The Russian committed a total of eight double faults and was particularly disappointing on his second serve. He only managed to win points in 44% of all situations when he had to use his second serve.
Medvedev allowed a total of nine break points. The 26-year-old was able to fend off two thirds of them. However, three breaks were still enough to decide the match, especially since Medvedev himself only had two break chances and could only use one of them.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 3:7
Ten times both athletes have faced each other so far and with seven wins Medvedev leads the direct comparison. However, all three Tsitsipas victories have come in the last five duels. In the current year, the Russian first won 3:1 in the Australian Open semifinals before the Greek took revenge with a 2-1 win in the semifinals of the Western & Southern Open.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Daniil Medvedev Tip
With Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev, the prediction tends to go to the Russian, who is not only 7:3 ahead in “head to head” comparison, but has also been in the final of the ATP Finals for the last two times in a row. However, while Tsitsipas only surrendered a single service game in his opening match against Djokovic, Medvedev’s second serve did not work. A lot will therefore depend on whether the Muscovite can get his service back under control in time.
It is clear, however, that both athletes in normal form hardly ever give up a service game on the fast indoor hard court. Accordingly, it is likely that at least one set will go into a tie-break at 6:6 after six service games each have been won.
