The winner will face Casper Ruud on Saturday
The “Night session” on Friday evening will decide who will accompany Novak Djokovic, who is already the group winner, into the semifinals of the ATP Finals 2022, where he will meet Casper Ruud. The starting position is very simple: The winner of this match will advance and the loser will be eliminated.
Both athletes have already clashed at the ATP Finals 2020 and 2021 in the round robin. Two years ago, the Greek had the upper hand with a 2:1 win. Last year, the Russian celebrated a smooth 2:0 victory. Accordingly, it is difficult to predict who will have the better end in Stefanos Tsitsipas’ match against Andrey Rublev on Friday evening
It is to be expected that both players will fight to the bitter end to make use of their chance to reach the semifinals. After all, Casper Ruud is not an overpowering opponent waiting there, which means that the grand final is also possible. Accordingly, the forecast for Stefanos Tsitsipas against Andrey Rublev is that the match will have a certain length.
In our eyes, the greatest value comes from betting that the first set will go at least ten games long.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seedings: 2
The 24-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas has not yet won a Grand Slam title, but has already won three Major titles in his career. His greatest success came at the ATP Finals, where he won the overall title on his debut in 2019.
Apart from that, the Athenian has only beaten his opponents twice at the Monte Carlo Masters, where he managed to defend his title this year. It was one of two tournament victories this year besides the Mallorca Championships.
61 of 84 singles matches won in 2022
Although the season has been somewhat disappointing at Grand Slam level for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who most recently failed to reach the first round at the US Open. Nevertheless, the multi-player reached 61 victories from 84 singles matches.
Now the world number three, who was drawn into the red group as top seed due to the absence of Carlos Alcaraz, wants to add victory number 62 to his tally to snatch the last ticket to the semifinals. The bookmakers certainly think the Greek can do it, because the odds on Stefanos Tsitsipas against Andrey Rublev are swinging in the Athenian’s favour.
Irre tremble in second group match
It must be said, however, that the Greek had a fair amount of match luck to be in the draw at all. After the 0:2 opening defeat against Novak Djokovic, the second group match against Daniil Medvedev almost slipped out of his hands.
The 24-year-old missed three match points in the second set and had to go into the deciding set, where he was already down by a break. Only when the Russian was able to serve out the match did Stef get the break back in the last second and then kept his nerve in the subsequent tiebreak. The fact that he scored only 28% of the time with his returns could also be a disadvantage for him against Rublev.
Andrey Rublev – statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 7
Position in the seedings: 6
The 25-year-old Russian Andrey Rublev has already won twelve singles tournaments on the ATP Tour in his career, but has not yet been able to claim a Major title. The highest of feelings so far have been five tournaments from the ATP Tour 500 category.
However, the Moscow native has reached the finals of two major tournaments, but missed out on a chance to win the title against his current opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters 2021.
In the semifinals for the first time in his third attempt?
Although Andrey Rublev won four singles titles this year and qualified for the ATP Finals for the third time in his career, the Russian was only one of the outsiders in the field. All the more surprising was his 2-1 victory over the favoured compatriot Daniil Medvedev in the opening match.
After the 25-year-old always failed in the round robin of the ATP Finals in the last two years, he now only needs one more win to reach the semifinals for the first time. And the bet on this coup between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev is by no means out of the question. The player from Moscow has won four of the ten encounters with the Greek.
Won seven of the last ten singles matches
In his last encounter with Tsitsipas, Rublev lost 2-1 in the semifinals of the Astana Open at the beginning of October. Since then, however, the Russian has won seven of his subsequent ten singles matches and even beat Dominic Thiem 2-0 during this run.
However, the Muscovite needs to drastically improve the rate of his first serve. Against Novak Djokovic, he went down 0:2 without a chance because he was able to put just 55% of all first serves into the opponent’s court and only scored with the second serve 36% of the time…
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Andrey Rublev Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 6:4
There have been a total of ten meetings between the two athletes so far and Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the direct comparison with six victories. The Greek also won the two encounters in 2022 with a 2-1 score in each case.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Andrey Rublev tip
With Stefanos Tsitsipas against Andrey Rublev, the prediction goes slightly in the direction of the Greek, who is narrowly leading in the “head to head” comparison and could win both duels in 2022. However, it has to be said that both players are on a par, which was also shown by their results. Both were without a chance against Novak Djokovic, but beat Daniil Medvedev in a close match.
It is likely that nuances will decide this knockout match. A lot will depend on how both athletes get a grip on their weak points, i.e. how Tsitsipas gets his backhand working and how confidently Rublev brings his first serve into the court. We expect a certain length and are betting on more than 9.5 games in the first set.
