Will Tsitsipas bounce back against the debutant?

In the Green Group of the ATP Finals 2021 in Turin on Wednesday night, it is all about Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud staying in the competition after losing their opener. There have been constellations in the past where one win from the three preliminary round matches was enough to get through the round robin unscathed. In most cases, however, two defeats in a row have meant elimination.

This match is correspondingly important for the Greek, who has already won the ATP Finals once in 2019 and is desperate to avoid a second successive first-round exit. In the run-up to the match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud, the odds are swinging in the direction of the world number four.

However, Casper Ruud also sold himself quite dearly in his opening match against Novak Djokovic, whom he was able to force into a tiebreak at least in the first set despite losing 0:2. Nevertheless, the Norwegian has only been able to keep up with the elite of the ATP Tour on clay, which is why we expect a clear Tsitsipas victory in the end.

We recommend a small handicap of -2.5 games for Stefanos Tsitsipas against Casper Ruud. Although we think the two-setter is more likely than the three-setter, this bet covers many eventualities in both constellations.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 4th
Position in the seedings: 4th

The 23-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas is the only player who has already won both the NextGen ATP Finals and the actual ATP Finals. He recorded both successes in two consecutive years (2018 and 2019).

The world number four already won the NextGen ATP Finals in Italy in 2018. So the fact that Turin has now been awarded the contract to host the official World Men’s Tennis Championship up to and including 2025 is definitely a good omen for Tsitsipas.

Problems with serve in opening match

However, the Greek failed to get off to a good start as he suffered a 2-0 defeat to Andrey Rublev in his opening match. The reason for this was primarily to be found in his first serve, which only came in 63% of all cases and of those only led to the point win in 68% of all cases.

Because Tsitsipas himself only won 28% of the Russian’s serves and did not win a single break point, the game was over quickly. His path to the semifinals is now rocky, for which a victory over Casper Ruud would have to be followed by a win over top favourite Novak Djokovic.

55 of 74 singles won in 2021

Now the Greek, who has won 55 of his 74 singles so far in 2021, stormed into the French Open final and won two singles titles in Monte Carlo and Lyon, will be looking to force that very final against the Djoker. A win – preferably without losing a set – against the Norwegian outsider is a must.

At least the betting companies have little doubt that he will succeed in winning the match.

Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 8th
Position in the seedings: 8th

The 22-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud is the exotic among the eight players qualified for the ATP Finals this year. The clay court specialist has never won a really big title so far. The world number eight has also never reached a major final.

However, because Ruud usually defeated lower-ranked opponents in the early rounds of major tournaments and reliably advanced to the late knockout rounds, he still collected points for the ranking from week to week, which favoured his entry into the Top 10.

Win rate of just 17.6% against Top 10 players

In addition, Ruud mostly benefited from the absence of other big names in small tournaments. In 2021 alone, the 22-year-old won five tournaments from the ATP Tour 250 category – four of them on his favourite surface, clay.

It is also on this clay court that he has won his only three victories against top 10 players so far. However, his 2-0 loss to Novak Djokovic in his opening match was his 14th defeat in such duels. Against top 10 players, his win rate is just 17.6%. On hard court even 0 %.

Ruud with deficits on hard court

The odds are correspondingly stacked against Stefanos Tsitsipas against Casper Ruud, with the Norwegian looking to bounce back with a win in his second match on his debut at the hard-court ATP Finals.

He sold himself well in his opening match against Novak Djokovic, at least in the first set. Overall, however, his deficits on the fast hard court can be clearly demonstrated in numbers. Casper Ruud was only able to score once against the Serb’s first serve in the entire match. That corresponds to a return rate of just 5 %.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 1:1

The two athletes have faced each other twice so far and although Ruud has only won three of his 17 matches against top-10 players, that includes a victory over Tsitsipas, which of course he celebrated on clay at this year’s Madrid Masters. Meanwhile, the Greek made short work of the Norwegian (6-1 and 6-4) in their second hard-court encounter at the Roger’s Cup 2021.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Casper Ruud tip

With Stefanos Tsitsipas against Casper Ruud, the prediction has to take into account that the Norwegian debutant has entered the Top 10 almost exclusively because of a strong clay court season, qualifying him for the ATP Finals.

On hard court, he has rarely been able to shine and at least has not been able to keep up with the absolute elite on the ATP Tour, which is why it will be extremely difficult against the Greek, who already won the overall title at this tournament two years ago.

Accordingly, the bet on Tsitsipas being able to hold his own in the end with a difference of at least three games is a good play. We therefore recommend betting on the Asian handicap of -2.5.