Will Ofi keep the red-white-red flag flying?

For many years, Dominic Thiem was the undisputed industry leader in Austrian tennis. But because the former US Open champion and two-time French Open finalist continues to chase his top form after various injuries, this year’s Grand Slam tournament on his preferred surface, the red clay, has already come to an end.

But Roland Garros 2023 won’t have to do without a Thiem just yet, as father Wolfgang is coaching another Austrian, Sebastian Ofner, who has already played his way through qualifying into the second main round.

Now, however, the 27-year-old clay court expert has a tough opponent ahead of him. Namesake Sebastian Korda is waiting on the way to the third round. Although the odds between Ofner and Korda are swinging in the US American’s favour, a surprise coup may be in the air.

Unlike “Ofi”, who clearly calls the clay court his favourite surface, his opponent is not a classic specialist on the somewhat slower courts of this world. Because the number 30 in the world rankings also had to struggle with major injury problems in the spring, even a prediction of an underdog victory seems anything but out of the question before the match between Ofner and Korda.

Sebastian Ofner – Statistics & current form

Sebastian Ofner is currently experiencing another pleasing phase in his career as a professional tennis player. At the tender age of 27, the man from Bruck an der Mur has reached a new career high in the world rankings. For the first time Ofi is ranked 118 among the best 120 players. With his first round win, he climbed even higher in the live ranking. At best, the breakthrough into the top 100 beckons for the first time.

The Styrian has earned this milestone with his recent good results. Ofner reached the final of three clay-court Challengers, and at the dress rehearsal in Mauthausen the strong server reached the final round. Ofi has won 28 of his 37 (!) matches on the red clay in the tennis year 2023.

Ofi has gained a lot of self-confidence in the qualifying round

This confirms once again that the tall right-hander can be described as an absolute clay court specialist and that despite the fact that he once achieved his greatest Grand Slam success to date in 2017 at Wimbledon by reaching the third round. Now the likeable Styrian is in the second round of the French Open for the first time, where he is considered an underdog according to the odds before the Ofner vs.

But we don’t see the underdog without a chance, especially since Wolfgang Thiem’s protégé has been putting in convincing performances in the qualifiers over the last few days. After wins against Noguchi, Choinski and Diaz Acosta, even service monster Maxime Cressy did not stand a chance in the first main round. In total, Ofi only lost one set in these four matches, especially his good service helped the Styrian win easy points several times.

In our opinion, it is therefore quite possible that the Austrian will also be able to keep the duel against his American opponent even and close. An interesting bet between Ofner and Korda is that there will be at least one tie break in the course of the match.

Sebastian Korda – statistics & current form

There are more than a few tennis experts who have Sebastian Korda on their radar as a future Grand Slam champion. Indeed, the 22-year-old, whose father Petr was also a successful professional on the tour, is one of the biggest talents on the tennis circuit.

Korda showed his undoubted potential at the Australian Open in January, where he reached the quarter-finals for the first time at a Grand Slam. Among others, he defeated Daniil Medvedev on his way to the round of the last eight. In the quarter-finals, however, Korda had to retire due to injury. Due to problems with his wrist, the 1.96 metre tall right-hander took a break for a total of three months and did not return to the ATP Tour until the end of April.

Korda is far from 100%

The man from Florida has played three matches since then and won only one of them. At the Masters in Madrid and Rome, Korda failed in two sets against Grenier and Safiullin. Things went better two days ago at the French Open opener, when Mackenzie MacDonald was swept off the court 3-0.

However, this smooth success must be put into perspective insofar as his compatriot 2023 is still waiting for his first victory on clay. Nevertheless, Korda committed 45 unforced errors and allowed a total of seven break points in three sets. For this reason, among others, we would be very cautious to play the lower odds on the favourite to win in the upcoming duel between Ofner and Korda. At the same time, we do not believe that this match will be decided after three sets. Even a match at eye level and over the full distance seems possible and is attractively priced.

Sebastian Ofner – Sebastian Korda Direct comparison / H2H-Balance

Because Sebastian Ofner, in contrast to Sebastian Korda, is more often on the Challenger Tour and primarily plays matches there on clay, there has not yet been a direct duel that can be included in the Ofner vs. Therefore, no reliable statement can be made about how the US American will cope with the very hard baseline strokes of the outsider.

Sebastian Ofner – Sebastian Korda Tip

Just two months ago, a second-round duel at a Grand Slam between Sebastian Ofner and Sebastian Korda would have been almost unthinkable. While the US American had to take a long break due to injury and has only three matches under his belt after his comeback, his Austrian opponent only got himself into the position and the form to survive the qualification in Roland Garros through good results in the spring.

To justify the Ofner vs. Korda betting odds on the outcome of the match by using the world ranking list alone in this match is therefore not a very clever approach. In our eyes, the 27-year-old man from Styria, who feels particularly comfortable on the red clay and has already won 28 matches (four of them in Paris) on this surface this season, even has realistic chances of advancing to the third round.

On the one hand, because we have already mentioned the injury problems and the lack of match practice of the 22-year-old Korda. On the other hand, the clay court is far from being the favourite surface of the hard hitter from Florida. Therefore, we expect a match on equal terms and predict at least four sets. Even a decisive fifth set is within the realm of possibility.

In the end, we decided to bet on at least a tie break between Ofner and Korda due to the serving strength of both professionals and the aforementioned assessment that they are probably on about the same level at the moment. For this, we offer a 1.90, which we will play with seven units.