Does Auger-Aliassime finally thwart Nadal’s title dreams?
The second day of play in the Green Group of the ATP Finals 2022 will take place on Tuesday, 15 November 2022. The two losers of the opening matches, Rafael Nadal and Félix Auger-Aliassime, will start the afternoon at the Pala Alpitour in Turin.
While the Spaniard, who played only six singles in the second half of the year, came to the year-end tournament as a colourful grab bag, the Canadian’s opening defeat was a bit of a surprise.
After all, at 22, the youngest competitor in this year’s field presented himself very strongly in the run-up to the ATP Finals. The Canadian won 20 of his last 21 singles before suffering a 2-0 defeat to Casper Ruud. Nevertheless, with the momentum still there, the odds on Rafael Nadal against Félix Auger-Aliassime are swinging in the youngster’s favour.
A lot will certainly depend on how well the Canadian gets his service game on court, which had somewhat broken away from him in the second set against Casper Ruud. However, looking at the fact that the Manacor bull didn’t muster a single break point against Taylor Fritz, our prediction goes to another rather short match for Rafael Nadal against Félix Auger-Aliassime.
We are betting on under 23.5 games, which at least takes into account the possibility of another tie-break.
Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 1
The 36-year-old Spaniard Rafael Nadal has qualified for the ATP Finals for the 17th time in his career, although the bull from Manacor has so far been comparatively stepmotherly. His appearance this year marks only his eleventh participation in the year-end tournament.
The veteran, who took the top seed in Turin due to the injury of compatriot Carlos Alcaraz, has never won the ATP Finals before in his career. The newly minted father is likely to have prepared himself for the tournament with corresponding ambition.
Not a single break point earned in the opening game
In the opening match, however, Nadal bounced off his challenger Fritz, who as the world number nine is only allowed to play in Turin because of Alcaraz’s cancellation. At 0:2 (6:7 and 1:6), the Majorcan, who is normally so strong on returns, curiously did not manage a single break point.
Moreover, because he made serious mistakes at key points of the match – for example, a double fault at the start of the tie-break cost him the first set – it was enough for his alert opponent to be there at the right moment.
Four of the last seven singles matches lost
But the tournament is not over yet for the 36-year-old. With two wins, he can still make it to the semifinals under his own steam, although the bookmakers’ odds are against the bull from Manacor in Rafael Nadal versus Félix Auger-Aliassime.
An unusual underdog role, which is also due to the fact that Rafa has only played seven singles on the ATP Tour since his withdrawal from the Wimbledon Championships, of which he has lost four matches. His record for the year reads well, with 38 wins from 45 singles matches. However, the Majorcan is still a long way from the convincing performances of the first half of the year.
Félix Auger-Aliassime – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 6
Position in the seedings: 5
The 22-year-old Canadian Félix Auger-Aliassime has been coached since April 2021 by none other than Toni Nadal, Rafael Nadal’s uncle and ex-coach. This duel, which already took place in exactly this constellation in the last 16 of this year’s French Open, is correspondingly interesting.
Even then, the man from Montreal had a long sniff at a surprise, but despite leading 1:0 and levelling 2:2 in the end, he had to admit defeat 2:3. Now the youngster will get another chance on indoor hard court.
Won 20 of the last 22 singles matches
For Félix Auger-Aliassime, the opening defeat against Casper Ruud was similar to Rafael Nadal’s loss. In the first set, the Canadian did not surrender a single service game, but did not have any compelling break chances either. In the tie-break after a consistent 6:6, the 22-year-old then left the court as the loser.
In the second set, Auger-Aliassime reared back once more, but then ran after the decisive break, which he could not recover. It was the second defeat in a row for the youngest player in this year’s field after 20 singles wins in a row.
Won only twelve of 40 duels with top-10 players
There is still some of the momentum in him that led to 20 wins in a row in the first place and three singles titles in a row, but it flashed through from time to time in the opening match. Accordingly, the betting on Rafael Nadal against Félix Auger-Aliassime is that the Canadian can force a deciding match for a place in the semifinals with a win in the second group match.
However, at least the record speaks against Toni Nadal’s protégé, who has lost both previous encounters against the bull from Manacor and does not enjoy the reputation of being a “giant killer”. Of 40 duels with current Top 10 players so far, Auger-Aliassime has won only twelve matches.
Rafael Nadal – Félix Auger-Aliassime Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 2:0
The two players have faced each other twice – but both times on clay, the surface on which no one on the ATP Tour shines as much as Rafael Nadal. Consequently, the bull from Manacor leads the direct comparison with 2-0 victories.
Rafael Nadal – Félix Auger-Aliassime Tip
The fact that both players are now meeting on the hard court for the first time may well be a chance for the up-and-coming Canadian. Much will depend on how both players shake off the defeat in the opening match. After all, both collapsed to some extent in the second set after losing the tie-break in the first, which has to be taken into account in Rafael Nadal’s prediction against Félix Auger-Aliassime.
We see the greatest value in betting on a similar course of play. We assume that the player who leads 1:0 will win the match. The bet on a maximum of 23 games is correspondingly consistent.
