Will the clay court king make it to the quarter-finals?

At the latest, the wheat is separated from the chaff in a tennis tournament in the round of 16. It’s hardly likely that Rafael Nadal will get it on Thursday. The Spaniard is the undisputed clay court king and is in good form heading into the French Open. In the round of 16 at the Masters in Rome, the 35-year-old will take on the young Canadian Denis Shapovalov.

For Rafael Nadal, the trip to Rome is a family outing with sporting activities in between. With his successes, you just have the necessary looseness off the court. Nevertheless, the Spaniard can fully focus on his matches.

Maybe he is no longer completely untouchable on clay. But his record at the Foro Italico is exceptional. He has managed no less than ten triumphs in Rome. His record in the eternal city amounts to 68:7 victories or 91 percent of matches won. Therefore, in the duel between Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov, the prediction must clearly go to a victory for the Spaniard.

The Canadian is not really a specialist on clay. At the big Masters tournaments or even at the French Open, he has never made it past the quarter-finals. We think he won’t even reach this round in the Foro Italico this year, because in our opinion you can only be right with a tip on a Spanish victory in the duel Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Shapovalov.

Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 4
Position in the seedings: 3

To reduce Rafael Nadal to just his top class on clay would not be fair to the Spaniard. This year, however, he won his titles in Melbourne, then at the Australian Open and in Acapulco on hard courts. On clay, on the other hand, he has not really done much this season. Before the tournament in Rome, the Spaniard had only competed in Madrid.

Easily into the round of 16

Rafael Nadal did without the Masters in Monte Carlo and in his home country he was already eliminated in the quarter-finals against his designated crown prince Carlos Alcaraz. He has not yet been able to really build up his form in the direction of the French Open, but his first appearance on Tuesday at the Foro Italico makes it clear that the 35-year-old is on a very good path.

John Isner was his opponent in the second round after Nadal had a walk-through in the first round. In the first round, the US-American still fought back, but during the match it became clear that Isner is not only playing against the Spaniard, but also against his aura on clay. It took just 1:15 hours before Nadal ended the match with 6:3 and 6:1.

The Spaniard’s statistics were by no means convincing. His first serve was only 54 per cent. On the other hand, he was outstanding in the rallies and rarely gave John Isner a chance. It is exciting that the Spaniard scored 13 direct points on his return against the service giant. If he also succeeds in returning so perfectly in the round of 16, then there is a lot to suggest that in the duel Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Shapovalov, the odds are on the Spaniard to win 2:0.

Denis Shapovalov – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 16
Position in the seedings: 13

Denis Shapovalov is a player who could certainly be in the top ten rankings in terms of potential. The Canadian has outstanding groundstrokes, an extremely good feel for the ball and is also left-handed, which can sometimes be an advantage because they are outnumbered on the ATP Tour and opponents find it difficult to adjust to that.

With discipline to success

However, the 23-year-old is also a player whose temper occasionally gets in the way. In the first round against Lorenzo Sonego, for example, he almost lost his reward due to discussions with the referee and not only had to win in three tough sets against the local hero, but he also had to fight off the Italian crowd.

In the second round, the Canadian was much calmer against Nikoloz Basilashvili and that was important because the Georgian played another strong match. In the first set, a break was enough to make it 6:4. In the second set, there was no loss of serve at all, so that the tiebreak had to decide the match. Denis Shapovalov showed stronger nerves and converted his second match point after 1:42 hours.

This victory now offers the Canadian the opportunity to take revenge for the narrow defeat against the Spaniard, most recently in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open. In total, the 23-year-old has only played four matches on clay this season and has an improvable record of 3:1 victories. It sounds like between Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov, the prediction must still go to a success for the Spaniard.

Rafael Nadal – Denis Shapovalov Direct comparison / H2H record

There aren’t many players on tour that Rafael Nadal has played five times or more that he doesn’t have a positive record against. Denis Shapovalov misses this illustrious circle by a hair’s breadth. In total, the two opponents have faced each other in six matches. Rafael Nadal has a narrow lead with 4:2 victories.

As a rule, it was very close. In four of the six duels, both players won at least one set. The opponents have also met twice in the Foro Italico. The Spaniard won both in the eternal city. The last encounter was in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open at the beginning of the year. Nadal was two sets ahead, but Shapovalov managed to equalise. The Spaniard only brought the match home in the fifth set and also triumphed in the final a few days later.

Rafael Nadal – Denis Shapovalov Tip

The previous duels between the two opponents have shown that it could well be close on Thursday at the Foro Italico. In four out of six matches, both opponents have won at least one set. However, one should not forget that Rome is played on clay and Rafael Nadal is the king of this surface.

He showed against John Isner how to play in Rome and if he also manages such a match against the Canadian, then the ten-time champion of the Foro Italico should also enter the quarter-finals with confidence.

Denis Shapovalov, however, knows how to play against the great Spaniard. Two wins in six matches is a great haul for the Canadian. But the defending champion will have learned his lessons from those close matches and besides, Rome is still played on clay. That’s why we decided to play the betting odds between Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov at 2:0 for the Spanish legend.