Is Ruud getting his revenge for the French Open defeat?

Rafael Nadal has already won 22 Grand Slam titles in singles. The ATP Finals, however, have always eluded the bull from Manacor. After the second day of play, it is already clear that this will remain the case in the future. The 2-0 defeat against Félix Auger-Aliassime and the second victory of Casper Ruud in the “night session” sealed the fate of the Mallorcan player.

In addition to the Spaniard’s elimination, two other things are certain: Firstly, the Norwegian is the early group winner, which is why the betting on Rafael Nadal against Casper Ruud that the man from Oslo will also win the third group match is basically under a good star. And secondly, no player can knock the injured Carlos Alcaraz off the top spot in the ATP world rankings.

For Rafael Nadal, it is now a question of leaving the Pala Alpitour in Turin with his head held high. The Spaniard went into the year-end tournament with the top seed, after all. Casper Ruud, meanwhile, is probably looking for revenge for losing the final of the French Open 2022, but he is not too interested in a long match. The Norwegian will have to show his best form in the semi-finals on Saturday.

Consequently, our forecast for Rafael Nadal against Casper Ruud is for a rather short match that will be decided in two sets. The bet on less than 23.5 games covers most eventualities.

Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 1

The 36-year-old Spaniard Rafael Nadal has achieved almost everything in his career. The bull from Manacor has won 22 Grand Slam titles in singles, something neither Novak Djokovic (21) nor Roger Federer (20) have been able to match.

In addition, he won the gold medal at the 2008 Olympic Games and no less than 36 major titles at Masters tournaments. Only the ATP Finals have never been won by the Spaniard before in his career. In 2010 and 2013, he failed to reach the final of the year-end tournament.

Lost five of last eight singles matches

This year, on the other hand, it is already clear before the last group match that Rafael Nadal will have to go home after the round robin for the fifth time in his career. The two 0:2 defeats against Taylor Fritz and Félix Auger-Aliassime cannot be compensated for in the last match.

This also continued the downward trend of the Spaniard. After Nadal initially won the first 20 singles in 2022 in a row, he currently has five defeats from the last eight singles matches to his name.

Still no break won at the ATP Finals

But before football fan Nadal can look forward to the World Cup, where he will be rooting for the Spanish team in the 2022 World Cup Group E, the world number two wants to make a conciliatory farewell at the ATP Finals. However, the odds are against the bull from Manacor when it comes to Rafael Nadal against Casper Ruud.

Not only did Rafa drop far too much on his own serve, but he also failed to get into his strong return game at all in the two group matches so far. Neither against Taylor Fritz nor against Félix Auger-Aliassime did the Majorcan manage a break.

Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seedings: 3

The 23-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud made his debut at the ATP Finals a year ago, where he immediately reached the semifinals. There, however, he had to admit defeat to Daniil Medvedev.

This year, after a strong start, it is already clear that the man from Oslo will once again make it past the round robin. With two wins, Casper Ruud is already the group winner and can therefore go into the last group match completely relaxed.

50 of the 70 singles won in 2022

However, one of the Norwegian’s biggest defeats to date will also resonate in this match. The 23-year-old, who is so adept on clay courts, finally reached a Grand Slam final for the first time in his career at the 2022 French Open, but was beaten 3-0 by his current opponent Rafael Nadal, of all people (3-6, 3-6, 0-6).

However, this crushing defeat did not throw the Norwegian off course in the long term. Casper Ruud fought his way into the final again at the US Open 2022, but had little to offer the reigning world number one Carlos Alcaraz in a 1:3 defeat. Nevertheless, the Oslo native won 50 of his 70 singles in 2022 and has already celebrated three tournament victories.

Only one service game surrendered in the tournament

Now the world number four could take revenge on the Manacor bull. In principle, the bet on Rafael Nadal against Casper Ruud is also very likely for the Norwegian to win. After all, the Oslo native has been convincing so far with a very variable first serve, which neither Félix Auger-Aliassime nor Taylor Fritz have been able to break.

The 23-year-old has only surrendered one service game in the entire tournament. Considering that Rafael Nadal has yet to win a single break, Casper Ruud’s strong service could make the difference on the fast indoor hard court of the Pala Alpitour.

Rafael Nadal – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 1:0

The final of the 2022 French Open was the only meeting between the two players so far. Rafael Nadal, who won an incredible 112 of the 115 singles matches played at the French Open, won a one-sided match 3-0, conceding only six games.

Rafael Nadal – Casper Ruud Tip

When it comes to Rafael Nadal against Casper Ruud, the prediction must also take into account the starting position. While the bull from Manacor has already been eliminated, his Norwegian opponent is already the group winner. Accordingly, the possibility of a revenge should not be the top priority for the 23-year-old. Casper Ruud is more likely to be interested in keeping his strength up in order to be 100% fit for the semi-final on Saturday.

Scenarios in which the player who loses the first set does not offer too much resistance in the second set are thus correspondingly likely. This argues for a two-setter with a maximum of 23 games.