Will Sabalenka beat the African underdog?
After winning a rematch of last year’s final in the quarter-finals, Ons Jabeur could now exact revenge on the player responsible for the other of her last two defeats in her last 17 singles matches at Wimbledon. The Tunisian was beaten 2-0 by the Belarusian in the quarter-finals two years ago, so bettors are favouring a win for the player from Minsk ahead of the match between Ons Jabeur and Arnya Sabalenka.
However, the African fighter’s heart has been playing big lately in the last 16 and quarter-finals, which is why it is very risky to blindly follow the prediction that Ons Jabeur will reach the final against Aryna Sabalenka. The player from Minsk is 3:1 ahead in the direct comparison and has only lost one set on the way to her fourth Grand Slam final in a row. However, Aryna Sabalenka is not untouchable.
A lot will depend on nuances anyway, although the hearts of the fans at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club are more likely to go out to the Tunisian, who has done a lot of advertising for herself with strong performances in the last few rounds. Ons Jabeur is also driven by the big goal of becoming the first African Grand Slam winner of all time and thus paving the way for other players from Africa.
At the very least, we trust the Tunisian to keep the match open for a long time, which is why we find the greatest value in betting that over 20.5 games will be needed to determine the finalist.
Ons Jabeur – statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 6
Position in the seedings: 6
Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur, 28, remains on a historic mission to become the first-ever Grand Slam winner from Africa. Last year, she sniffed a Grand Slam victory twice.
However, the player from Ksar Hellal missed the big shot at both Wimbledon and the US Open. Now, however, she has once again reached the round of the best four players at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.
Won 21 of 30 singles matches in 2023
For this Ons Jabeur beat in the quarter-finals 2:1 the player against whom she lost the final of the Wimbledon Championships exactly one year ago – the Kazakh Elena Rybakina. It was the Tunisian’s 21st singles win this year, and she has only lost nine times.
Now, however, the 28-year-old faces the next big challenge. After all, the African only lost to Aryna Sabalenka two years ago in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon. Accordingly, Ons Jabeur will now have to deal with the next athlete with whom she still has a score to settle in London
So far two former Grand Slam winners have been sent home
While the odds are stacked against the Tunisian in Ons Jabeur v Aryna Sabalenka, the momentum is definitely in her favour. However, the momentum is in favour of the world number six, who has already knocked out two former Grand Slam winners in Bianca Andreescu and Petra Kvitova.
Against the world number nine from the Czech Republic, who won the Grand Slam title here in London in 2011 and 2014, Ons Jabeur even needed 64 minutes for an outright 2-0 win in this year’s quarter-finals, where she gave away the bagel in the first set and took the set lead 6-0 after just 23 minutes. It is that killer instinct that the African will now need in the upcoming semifinals if she is to reach the grand final for the second year in a row.
Aryna Sabalenka – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 2
The 25-year-old Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka already won the Australian Open earlier this year and was crowned Grand Slam champion for the first time in her career in Melbourne.
After that, the player from Minsk also reached the semifinals of the French Open, before she now also belongs to the top four players at the Wimbledon Championships, just like two years ago. Including the current tournament, she has reached at least the semi-finals in six of her last eight appearances at a Grand Slam tournament.
Only dropped one set on her way to the semifinals
To do so, the Belarusian had to defeat Madison Keys last, which posed no problems for the 25-year-old. Just one hour and 29 minutes was enough for Aryna Sabalenka to achieve another smooth 2:0 victory (6:2 and 6:4).
The Minsk player has now dropped just one set on her way to the semifinals and once again impressed with her strong service game. In the Wimbledon quarter-finals, she “only” hit two aces, but scored with the first serve 75% of the time and with the second serve 52% of the time. The world number two only failed to win one service game.
Won 40 of 47 singles matches in 2023 season
In total, the Belarusian has already won 40 singles matches in the 2023 calendar year, which compares to just seven defeats. According to the bookmakers, the betting on Ons Jabeur against Aryna Sabalenka that the 25-year-old will make it to the final is correspondingly consistent.
It has to be said, however, that the Minsk player has yet to score any resounding successes on grass. Aryna Sabalenka has not yet won any of her 13 singles titles on the WTA Tour on the green surface, although she stated after her grass court debut at the 2017 Wimbledon Championships that she finds the surface very pleasant. So at the very least, the world number two should feel quite comfortable in her second career Wimbledon semi-final.
Ons Jabeur – Aryna Sabalenka Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1:3
Four times both athletes faced each other in a tennis match. After Ons Jabeur won the very first match 2-1 in the third round of the French Open 2020, the last three meetings all went to Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarussian has also won against the Tunisian once before at the Wimbledon Championships. In the quarter-finals of Wimbledon 2021, Sabalenka won 2-0 (6:4 and 6:3).
Ons Jabeur – Aryna Sabalenka Tip
With Ons Jabeur against Aryna Sabalenka, the betting odds are in favour of the Belarusian, who has won her last three matches against the Tunisian and ended Ons Jabeur’s run two years ago in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. However, the African fighter, who reached the final of the Wimbledon Championships a year ago and has lost only two of her last 17 singles matches at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, should never be written off.
It is clear that the Tunisian will fight to the bitter end. Accordingly, with Ons Jabeur against Aryna Sabalenka, our prediction is for a worthy semi-final that should also come to some length.
