Can the up-and-coming Pole upset the Djoker?

The last major highlight of the men’s tennis circuit will be played in Paris-Bercy this week. The first week of November is also the last regular week on the ATP Tour. Next week, the NextGen Finals in Milan are on the agenda before the ATP Finals in Turin are played from 14 November. First, however, the last Masters winner in 2021 will be sought. In the first semi-final, Novak Djokovic and Hubert Hurkacz will face each other

Serb Novak Djokovic would lock up the year-end number one position for a record seventh time with a tournament win in Paris-Bercy. The semi-final is expected to be just a stopover, according to the bookmakers, with only odds around 1.15-1.17 offered for Djokovic vs Hurkacz for the world number one to win as favourite.

Of course, these bets do not seem really lucrative because of the possibility of winning, but also because of the sporting quality of the Pole. Hubert Hurkacz is in the form of his life and by reaching the semi-finals in the City of Love, he has also punched his first ticket to the ATP Finals.

Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form

This week has once again shown that when it comes to Novak Djokovic, his performance on and off the court must be judged differently. In this preview of the Djokovic vs Hurkacz semi-final, only the sporting aspect is relevant for a forecast.

Troublesome return to the ATP Tour

The Masters tournament in the French capital also marks Novak Djokovic’s return to the ATP Tour, after all it is the first tournament since his big dream was shattered. On 12 September, he conceded a clear defeat to Daniil Medvedev in the final of the US Open and thus missed out on the Grand Slam.

On the fast indoor court, the Serb still shows very fluctuating performances and has not really found his rhythm yet. Djokovic needed three sets against Hungary’s Marton Fucsovics to book his place in the tournament. After that, Gael Monfils was unable to contest the round of 16 and with only one win, the Serb reached the quarter-finals of Paris-Bercy.

Three service losses to Taylor Fritz

This quarter-final against Taylor Fritz lasted just under 73 minutes and seemed a straightforward affair. But the Serb’s performance was by no means a dominant one. Djokovic had to drop his service three times, but corrected this with five strong breaks.

It should be noted that on indoor hardcourt, the serve is an extreme weapon and breaks are relatively rare. All the more surprising were the Serb’s many service losses, which definitely represent a possibility for the Polish outsider. Value is accordingly to be found between Novak Djokovic and Hubert Hurkacz in a tip on a handicap in favour of the Pole.

Hubert Hurkacz – Statistics & current form

Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz has developed rapidly in recent years, establishing himself more and more among the world’s best. The final breakthrough for the two-metre tall Pole came on the hallowed turf of Wimbledon. His journey at the most traditional tennis tournament of the year only ended in the semi-finals.

Three tournament wins in 2021

The two weeks in Wimbledon were no exception, but already in the months before and after, the 24-year-old was convincing all along the line. He now has four tournament victories to his name, three of which came this year. His biggest success came in April when he won the Masters tournament in Miami by beating Jannik Sinner in the final.

Hurkacz is an absolute hard hitter. His quality doesn’t really come into its own on clay courts, but Hurkacz is a player who needs a fast surface. With his service he gets a lot of free points (aces, service winners) and can generally dictate the game with his powerful strokes. Accordingly, many winners are to be found in Hurkacz’s statistics.

Qualification for the ATP Finals

Hurkacz certainly had far more trouble to earn his semi-final spot, after all, he had to go over three sets in both the last 16 (against Dominik Köpfer) and the quarter-finals (against James Duckworth). Efforts that paid off, as Hurkacz not only reached the semi-finals, but also got the last ticket for the ATP Finals in Turin (from 14 November).

Hurkacz will come to many free points with his thunderous service (~15 aces are quite to be expected) and will have “easy” service games again and again. Should Djokovic have problems with his consistency again, Hurkacz will be there. The Pole is certainly not such a clear outsider as the betting odds suggest. The odds for at least one set win for the Pole are also extremely lucrative for Djokovic vs. Hurkacz, with 2.50 offered for this.

Novak Djokovic – Hubert Hurkacz Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance

Head to Head: 2:0

The two players have faced each other twice on the ATP Tour so far, with both matches coming in 2019. Back then, the Pole Hubert Hurkacz was certainly nowhere near the level he has displayed in recent weeks and months. Accordingly, it is no surprise that Novak Djokovic had the better end of the deal at both the French Open and Wimbledon.

Novak Djokovic – Hubert Hurkacz Tip

With a record of 48 wins and only six losses, Novak Djokovic is once again the absolute ultimate in tennis. Accordingly, a clear favourite role for the Serb is understandable, however, in the Paris semi-final between Djokovic and Hurkacz odds of maximum 1.17 for the bet on the Serb are not interesting at all.

Hubert Hurkacz is not an absolute “YoungGun” but definitely belongs to the category “young savage” with his 24 years. Hurkacz has proven several times this season what qualities he possesses and also keeps a cool head in tight situations.

Due to his service strength, the forecast for Djokovic against Hurkacz of over 22.5 games, at least one tiebreak and the set handicap Hurkacz +1.5 sets is very lucrative. We recommend betting on at least one set win for the Pole with a stake of five units. Djokovic looks vulnerable, Hurkacz has the quality and confidence to take advantage