Is an injured Nadal competitive?

The two quarter-final matches in the men’s lower draw on Wednesday could not have been more different. On one side there was a very clear success, while in the second duel there was plenty of drama and spectacle. In the battle for a place in the Wimbledon final, Nick Kyrgios and Rafael Nadal will now face each other in the lower draw.

Drama and spectacle are actually two terms that apply to many of the Australian’s matches. His quarter-final, however, was the one with the smooth three-set victory. In his duel with Christian Garin, he had no trouble at all and fixed his first-ever entry into a GS semi-final in a very confident manner. Nadal, on the other hand, was in action for over four hours and only decided the match in the match tiebreak. Physically, the Majorcan was once again ailing, but he once again underlined his great capacity for suffering and fought his way on.

Doubts about his physical condition are definitely allowed after Wednesday’s findings. This is also the reason why the bookmakers see the Australian as the favourite in the duel between Kyrgios and Nadal according to the odds.

Nick Kyrgios – Statistics & current form

You either love him – or you hate him. Nick Kyrgios is a prime example of an athlete who polarises. The Australian’s talent is undisputed, but his head is not always made for top-level sport. Many opponents describe his behaviour on the tennis court as disrespectful. This certainly includes his rants in the direction of the umpires/linesmen or his discussions with the audience. However, Kyrgios is also a player who has nerves of steel and has no problem thundering over the second serve at well over 200 km/h.

First GS semi-final

As world number 40, Nick Kyrgios does not currently enjoy a seed at a Grand Slam event. This means he faces tough challenges in the early rounds, but the top stars are probably more worried about an early clash with the Australian than the other way around. Kyrgios has all the tools to beat any player on the tour.

For a long time, he lacked consistency or the necessary seriousness to celebrate the big successes on the tour. During the Corona pandemic, Kyrgios partly grew up. At least he has found consistency and has won 23 of his 30 matches on the ATP Tour this year. Wimbledon 2022 has been a roller-coaster ride for Kyrgios so far. After a bumpy start against no-name Paul Jubb, there were strong performances against Krajinovic or Tsitsipas before he weakened again against Nakashima.

In the third GS quarter-final of his career, he had no problems with the Chilean Garin. Strong serve, very present on the important points (eight of nine break points defended) and hardly any errors paved the way to a clear three-set victory. The Australian will certainly have physical advantages and that is why the lower odds are offered for betting on his victory between Kyrgios and Nadal.

Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form

What is this man’s capacity for suffering? Never give up is not just a nice saying, but a statement that best describes the character of the 22-time Grand Slam winner. With his chronic foot injury, many other professionals would have thrown in the towel long ago. But these are not the only problems that have accompanied the Majorcan in his career. In his first defeat in 2022 – in the final of Indian Wells – a rib fracture was diagnosed after the match, but Nadal continued to play anyway.

Abdominal muscles worry him

In the rematch against the US boy, Nadal started furiously and was quickly 3:1 in the lead, but then completely lost the thread. In the second set it became obvious why, Nadal had to call the physio and had his abdominal muscles treated. He lacked timing in his service, many simple errors and frame balls were the consequence of his problems. With extremely short rallies, Nadal tried to push for the decision quickly. In the end, however, he had to work hard for over four hours to claim his 19th GS victory in 2022.

In the match tie-break of the deciding set, he quickly took a 5-0 lead, Fritz came back again briefly, but in the end Nadal was able to celebrate a 10-4 win. During the on-court interview, he was relieved and admitted that there were phases when he didn’t think he would be able to finish the match at all. In the end, Taylor Fritz could not reward himself for a strong performance, his head probably put a spoke in his wheel.

The Spaniard is by no means in top physical form, but this is more or less a permanent condition in his career. Nevertheless, the current problems are an argument that justifies betting on the Australian between Kyrgios and Nadal. On Wednesday evening, he still left his participation in the semi-final open, already during the match his father and sister signalled him to give up. Thursday is now all about regeneration, but problems with the abdominal muscles in particular are protracted and extremely limiting when it comes to service.

The ability to suffer in all honour, but to be handicapped from the beginning in a GS semi-final reduces the chances of victory to a minimum. The tendency in our prediction between Kyrgios and Nadal therefore clearly goes in the direction of the Australian, provided the Spaniard can even take the court.

Nick Kyrgios – Rafael Nadal Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to Head: 3:6

The two professionals have already faced each other nine times on the ATP Tour. Unsurprisingly, the Majorcan is leading in the direct duel with the bad boy from Australia. However, Kyrgios has already won three matches against the 22-time Grand Slam winner – including on the hallowed turf at Church Road. In 2014, Kyrgios prevailed in four sets, but five years later Nadal took revenge at Wimbledon. The last meeting so far was in March this year, when Nadal narrowly prevailed in three sets in Indian Wells.

Nick Kyrgios – Rafael Nadal Tip

Under normal circumstances, fans should be looking forward to a spectacular semi-final. Nadal still has a theoretical shot at the Grand Slam, having already clinched the title in Australia and Paris. The third GS title in 2022 is almost utopian in the meantime, however, because his abdominal muscle problems limit him extremely. Currently, the odds between Kyrgios and Nadal continue to fall for the prediction on the Australian.

Nadal hates to give up and should he take the court he will most likely finish the match. The question is in what condition – and here great doubt is allowed. Therefore, between Nick Kyrgios and Rafael Nadal, it is not only recommended to bet on the Australian, but also a clear victory would not be a surprise.

For the set handicap -1.5, six units are recommended as a bet, especially as Nadal’s physical wear and tear should become noticeable as the match progresses. Moreover, Kyrgios is a player who has his nerves under control and “the fear of victory” will not paralyse him