Will the Pole win the Sunshine Double?

In her 16th consecutive singles match, Iga Swiatek, the designated world number one who will replace Ashleigh Barty in the WTA world rankings at the end of the tournament, was again in no doubt. The Pole also eliminated Jessica Pegula and, after winning the overall title in Indian Wells, also reached the final in Miami. She could now become only the fourth player to win the Sunshine Double.

However, the Pole now clashes with four-time Grand Slam winner Naomi Osaka, who has reached a tournament final for the first time since the Australian Open in 2021. The Japanese could make it correspondingly difficult for the in-form Pole. In the run-up to the final between Naomi Osaka and Iga Swiatek, however, the odds are swinging in the direction of the Pole, who is unbeaten in 16 matches.

We also see the Polish player, who is currently playing so excellently, as the favourite, after all Swiatek is probably the strongest return player on the WTA Tour at the moment. However, she is now up against an opponent who, on a good day, can hardly be denied a service game. Accordingly, we see a lot of value in Naomi Osaka against Iga Swiatek in the betting that there will be a maximum of seven breaks in this final match.

Naomi Osaka – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 77
Position in the seedings: unseeded

The 24-year-old Japanese Naomi Osaka has already experienced a lot in her still young career. Already four years ago, she secured her very first Grand Slam title at the 2018 US Open, which was to be followed by three more titles.

But especially after her overall victory at the 2021 Australian Open, things became increasingly quiet for the tennis starlet, who withdrew from last year’s French Open after the first round, citing her mental health condition.

Big jump in WTA world rankings

Also because the former world number one played only a few and selected tournaments afterwards, it became increasingly quiet around Naomi Osaka, who slipped to 77th place in the WTA world rankings.

Her strong run in Miami will correct this, however. If she fails in the semifinals, she will be ranked 36th on Monday. With a tournament win, even a jump to 30th place would be possible.

Won 11 of 13 singles in 2022

However, the Japanese player’s annual record also shows that she is clearly on the up again. Naomi Osaka has won 11 of her 13 singles matches in 2022, eliminating several top-class opponents in Miami, including Angelique Kerber, Danielle Collins and Belinda Bencic.

Most recently, she even celebrated a comeback victory in the semifinals against the reigning Olympic champion from Switzerland after trailing 1-0 in the first set, which is why she definitely has a valid chance of stopping her Polish opponent’s winning streak.

Iga Swiatek – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 2
Position in the seedings: 2

Regardless of the outcome of this final, 20-year-old Iga Swiatek of Poland will become the 28th world number one of all time after the tournament ends. She is also the first Polish player to be given the honour of leading the WTA Tour.

But the shooting star would love to climb to number one with the Sunshine Double in her pocket. Iga Swiatek would become the fourth lady after Steffi Graf, Kim Clijsters and Victoria Azarenka to achieve the feat of winning back-to-back Indian Wells and Miami

Won 25 of the 28 singles in 2022

In total, it would even be the third Major title in a row for the Pole, who also won the WTA 1000 in Doha before the tournament in Indian Wells. In total, she has won 16 singles matches in a row.

With her 2-0 win over Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals, the 20-year-old took her impressive tally for the year to 25 wins from 28 singles matches. She did not drop a single set at the 2022 Miami Open, where she reached the final in record time.

Won more than half of all opponents’ service games

This run was also possible because of the enormous return strength of the Pole, who was already able to successfully convert more than half of all opponents’ service games into a break (53.5%) in the past tournaments in the calendar year 2022.

Now, however, the designated world number one will face a four-time Grand Slam winner whose great strength is her own serve. Although Naomi Osaka’s betting on the 20-year-old winning the tournament against Iga Swiatek is nevertheless under a good star. However, it will certainly not be as easy as in the previous rounds – especially if the early and groundbreaking breaks that give the Pole the necessary security for her aggressive attacking game do not materialise.

Naomi Osaka – Iga Swiatek Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 1:0

The two ladies have faced each other before in the summer of 2019. In the round of 16 of the Roger’s Cup, Naomi Osaka won 2:0 (7:6 and 6:4) against a then still 18-year-old Pole, who even forced the Japanese favourite into a tie-break in the first set.

Naomi Osaka – Iga Swiatek Tip

When predicting Naomi Osaka against Iga Swiatek, one has to take into account that the Japanese player has much more experience and has already won four Grand Slam titles. The current form, however, is clearly in favour of the Pole, who has now played at the highest level for no less than 16 singles and remains unbeaten. The 20-year-old, who will become the new world number one at the end of the tournament, needs just one more win to become only the fourth woman ever to win the Sunshine Double.

Never the less, this final will be a tough test of the Pole’s return strength. Due to the strong serve of the Japanese player, who also showed comeback qualities in Miami, we expect far fewer break chances and see the greatest value in betting on less than 7.5 breaks.