How strong is comebacker Raonic?

From a German-speaking perspective, Tuesday’s first-round clash between Milos Raonic and Dennis Novak is sure to be one of the big highlights on London’s hallowed turf. The Austrian Novak has successfully fought his way through the qualifiers and is now in the main draw at the fifth Wimbledon edition in a row. His opponent is none other than the 2016 finalist from Canada.

The now 32-year-old celebrated his comeback on the tour only a few weeks ago after almost two years (!) of injury and is now looking forward to his favourite tournament as well as his preferred surface. However, since the former top three player, who has now fallen to 840th in the world rankings, has hardly any playing experience, it would be very risky to place a bet on the Montenegrin-born player in the run-up to the match between Raonic and Novak.

Incidentally, this opening duel of the 2023 Wimbledon Championships brings with it a very special explosive element. In 2018, when the Austrian sensationally reached the third round in London on his debut, his run of success was abruptly halted by the then co-favourite and grass court specialist Raonic. Five years later, the man from Wiener Neustadt is demanding revenge. In this context, it is by no means out of the question that the forecast between Raonic and Novak on the – according to the odds – razor-thin underdog will work out.

Milos Raonic – statistics & current form

Milos Raonic has endured an almost unfathomable period of suffering. In July 2021, the Canadian tore his Achilles tendon four to five times, broke a toe immediately afterwards and then also had to deal with the consequences of a torn muscle. The former world number three was thus unable to play a match on the ATP Tour for almost two years. At one point, the service monster even thought of ending his career prematurely.

The fact that Raonic can now actually compete again at his favourite tournament in Wimbledon feels like a great gift for the 32-year-old. Due to his protected ranking, which comes with such a long injury break, the Canadian did not even have to fight his way through the qualifiers, but is immediately involved in the first main round.

Raonic just enjoying the moment

While Raonic was regularly among the extended group of favourites at the most prestigious Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year in his prime, it would be a big surprise in 2023 if he made it to the second week. The 1.96-metre-tall right-hander simply lacks match practice, and there must also be a question mark behind his fitness, although the North American has always come through on grass via his outstanding service and very controlled net play.

At times, the powerful Wimbledon finalist from 2016 is certainly still capable of keeping up at this level, but in our eyes, a won grass court match in s’ Hertogenbosch, the Netherlands, against Miomir Kecmanovic is by no means enough to justify the lower odds on the world number 840 (!) between Raonic and Novak. Especially in light of the fact that after his two-set win over the Serbian in round two, he failed in two rounds against Jordan Thompson.

But what we trust the eight-time tournament winner on the ATP Tour with without a doubt are close set decisions. It will be quite difficult for his Austrian opponent to take the serve from Raonic. At the same time, the Canadian will rarely get the chance to break Novak. It is therefore conceivable to predict two or more tie breaks before the Raonic vs. Novak match.

Dennis Novak – statistics & current form

With Sebastian Ofner or Filip Misolic, two Austrians have already been able to cause a sensation in their very own way this season. Dennis Novak could now be the third to keep the red-white-red flag flying high for as long as possible at an important tennis tournament. The fact is that the 29-year-old actually has everything it takes to play successful grass court tennis.

The serve of the experienced right-hander from Lower Austria is a weapon, the baseline strokes are also very well suited to the extremely flat court in Wimbledon. In addition, the world number 159, who was even ranked 85th just three years ago, has already had some good experience on the hallowed turf in London.

Novak won 8 of his last 10 matches on grass

Unforgettable for his impressive run in 2018, when Novak surprisingly reached the third round as a debutant and qualifier, defeating Frenchman Lucas Pouille among others on the way and only failing to beat co-favourite Milos Raonic in four sets. In 2019, 2021 and 2022, the Austrian also reached the main round of the most traditional Grand Slam of the tennis year. Because Wimbledon had to be cancelled in 2020 due to a pandemic, Novak is now in the tournament for the fifth time in a row.

The protégé of former Thiem coach Günter Bresnik is in solid form when he comes to the English capital. Although the Challenger in Ilkley ended in the qualifying round, Novak held his own in the qualifying round at Wimbledon and once again impressed with his powerful service. If the 29-year-old manages to put down a good percentage on his first serves, we wouldn’t be surprised if, in the end, even the odds on the Austrian winning pay off between Raonic and Novak.

Milos Raonic – Dennis Novak Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

We have already discussed the last and so far only direct duel between these two tennis pros in detail. In the third round of Wimbledon 2018, Raonic prevailed in four sets, hitting 28 (!) aces and 75 (!) winners. With almost 70% of the points won at the net, there was no match for the Canadian on this sunny July day in London. It is hard to imagine that the 32-year-old will ever come close to his top form again.

Milos Raonic – Dennis Novak Tip

At one time Milos Raonic was one of the best tennis players in the world. However, long-lasting injuries took the Canadian off the tour from one moment to the next. The 32-year-old had to sit out for almost two years before he recently made his comeback in s’ Hertogenbosch. Significantly, the former number three returned on his favourite surface. A former Wimbledon finalist, the service monster can still be a threat to many opponents even without any match practice.

The question will be whether the fundamentally existing potential is enough to actually play lower betting odds on the injury-plagued Canadian before the first-round duel Raonic vs Novak. We answer with “no” and additionally argue that the Austrian can also be called a grass court specialist. For the fifth time in a row, the 29-year-old is in the main draw of the most prestigious Grand Slam.

Because we cannot agree on a clear favourite, we have decided to bet on at least two tie breaks between Raonic and Novak. Both players are excellent serve players who will have great difficulties in creating break chances.