Can Maxi pull off a big surprise?
With three wins in the qualifying rounds, Maximilian Marterer has successfully punched his ticket to the main draw of the men’s singles at the Australian Open for the third time in his career after 2018 and 2019. There, the German will face Taylor Fritz, whom he has already successfully defeated once in the only encounter so far at the Miami Masters 2019.
In addition, the 26-year-old has always made it past the first round in his two previous appearances at the Australian Open, while his American opponent has failed in the first game in two of the last five. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the clash between Maximilian Marterer and Taylor Fritz, the odds are heavily stacked against the German.
All the more interesting is the possibility of a winning underdog bet. In order to find a positive expected value for Maximilian Marterer against Taylor Fritz in the bet on the German’s victory, a mathematical probability of just 16% is already sufficient for his victory.
Considering that the player from Nuremberg has already won three matches in Melbourne Park last week, you should definitely be able to give him this chance of winning. Of course, the underdog bet remains a risk, but it can be minimised with a free bet or a betting voucher.
Maximilian Marterer – statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world ranking: 228
Seeded position: Qualifier
The 26-year-old German Maximilian Marterer recently went through two highly complicated years in which he was either not even entered for the major tournaments or failed to qualify for the most part.
Only in two of the last nine Grand Slam tournaments did the Nuremberg player make it into the main draw. In both cases, he was eliminated directly in round one.
After two weak years on the rise?
Apartly because he has played just seven rated singles on the ATP Tour in the last two years (two wins, five losses), the former top-50 player has slipped to 228th place in the ATP world rankings.
Now, however, the Nuremberg player could make a big leap again within a single tournament. For the three victories in the three qualifying rounds, he has already collected 25 points for the ranking. If he makes it through to the first round, he could add another 45 points to his tally.
The first three wins in 2022 are already on the account
The draw could have meant worse for the German. The qualifier, who has already wrapped up his first three victories in 2022 in the Australian Open qualifier, will meet Taylor Fritz, an opponent he has already beaten once on outdoor hard court in their only meeting so far.
Accordingly, it is of course a bit of a gamble to bet on the 26-year-old’s opening win against Taylor Fritz. But just because he has fallen to 228th in the rankings after two complicated years, it would be a big mistake to write Marterer off prematurely.
Taylor Fritz – statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 22
Position in the seedings: 20
The 24-year-old American Taylor Fritz is currently competing in the men’s singles at the Australian Open for the sixth time in his career. However, the man from San Diego has never made it to the second week of the tournament.
In two of his five participations, he even ended up in the first round. In total, the 1.96 metre tall giant of serve has won six of his eleven singles matches at the Grand Slam tournament down under.
Good performance at ATP Cup
The American is certainly not one of the favourites, even though he was recently sent to the ATP Cup by the USA due to his strong ranking in the ATP world rankings. There, Taylor Fritz sold himself quite dearly in his first three singles matches in 2022.
Although there was nothing to be gained against German superstar Alexander Zverev in an outright 2-0 defeat, the 24-year-old triumphed against both Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime and Briton Cameron Norrie, both of whom he defeated 2-1 after a hard fight.
Fritz favours lawn tennis
Also with these two wins against established top-20 players behind him, the American now heads into the opening match of the Australian Open favoured.
It should be noted, however, that the giant of the serve has so far only been convincing on grass, where his serve really comes into its own. With the exception of the ATP Eastbourne, where he won his first and only singles title on the ATP Tour in 2019, he has lost every final he has reached so far, which means that his list of successes remains quite manageable compared to the German outsider.
Maximilian Marterer – Taylor Fritz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 1:0
There has been one clash between the two athletes so far. That was when Maximilian Marterer prevailed 2-1 in the first round of the 2019 Miami Masters (6-4, 3-6, 6-3).
Maximilian Marterer – Taylor Fritz Tip
In the case of Maximilian Marterer against Taylor Fritz, the prediction basically goes in the direction of the established American, who as world number 22 is more than 200 places above his German challenger in the rankings.
In fact, however, the 24-year-old does not really have more to show than the German. Both players have never made it past the third round at the Australian Open, while the Nuremberg player won the only direct duel to date 2-1.
Thus, the underdog bet is by no means ruled out in this duel, which is why it seems all the more promising to try it at interesting quotes with the German, who is after all already acclimatised at Melbourne Park after three wins in the qualifiers.
For the surprise victory of the Nuremberg player, betting odds of 6.30 are available on Maximilian Marterer against Taylor Fritz.
