Can Murray stand up to Berrettini’s power?

Without a doubt, Matteo Berrettini is one of the most unpleasant opponents on the ATP Tour. A cracking serve paired with a monstrous forehand can be enough against any player on a good day to exude total dominance.

But because the 2021 Wimbledon finalist has been struggling with injuries from time to time, he is currently only 14th in the world rankings. The tall model athlete is seeded 13th, which will give him some tough matches early on in the tournament.

The opening hurdle at the Australian Open 2023 is particularly tough. At least in terms of names. Andy Murray, a three-time Grand Slam champion who has already reached the final five times in Australia and is very fond of the tournament Down Under, is waiting. In our eyes, it is still the first choice to bet on the Italian between Berrettini and Murray.

The fact that the 26-year-old reached the semi-finals at the first Grand Slam of the year last year also speaks in favour of this, while the glory days of his Scottish opponent are of course long in the past. Over a longer distance, the former world number one should therefore actually have no chance. In any case, we are not averse to making a prediction on a handicap victory for the favourite before the notable first-round duel Berrettini vs. Murray.

Matteo Berrettini – Statistics & current form

In 2019, Matteo Berrettini made his first real impact at a Grand Slam. At the US Open, the Italian surprisingly reached the final round, but then failed to Rafael Nadal. Almost two years later, things were to go one step further for the Roman-born player, as Berrettini only lost the final against Novak Djokovic in four sets at the Wimbledon tournament in 2021.

The 26-year-old is thus one of only a few active professionals who have already reached at least the quarter-finals at all four Grand Slams. The right-hander also caused a sensation at the Australian Open last year. With Nakashima, Alcaraz, Carreno-Busta and Monfils, Berrettini was able to assert himself against strong competition and only failed to reach the final round against the eventual winner Rafael Nadal, whereby the Italian also won one set against the tennis legend.

Berrettini’s biggest weapons are serve and forehand

The 1.96m giant’s game suits the hard court perfectly. Hardly any other player at the top of the world makes so many free points via the service. If the first serve comes with a good percentage, Berrettini also likes to run around the backhand in order to be able to exert pressure again immediately with his strong forehand. He also has a very deep slice, which causes problems for many opponents. If the Roman, who has now fallen to 14th position in the world rankings, is fit, he is more likely to be in the top five.

This became clear at the first tournament of the new year when he reached the final with the Italian team at the United Cup, beating Casper Ruud or Hubert Hurkacz, among others. Only against Tsitsipas and Fritz were there close defeats, whereby these two top stars also had a hard time breaking Vincenzo Santopadre’s protégé.

With this in mind, we expect the former Grand Slam finalist to record a relatively commanding win in the opener. Conceivably, between Berrettini and Murray, we could be looking at odds of a handicap win (-1.5/-2.5 sets).

Andy Murray – Statistics & current form

Andy Murray is one of the greatest players tennis has produced in the 21st century. The Scottish-born player is a three-time Grand Slam champion, two-time Olympic champion and also won the Davis Cup in 2015 with his team. 41 weeks as world number one underline the exceptional position of the man who was even elevated to the status of nobility in Great Britain due to his sporting achievements.

His fans were all the happier after Murray, despite several operations on his damaged hip, repeatedly celebrated comebacks, some of them surprising, and returned to the tour. The really big successes, however, have been lacking in the recent past. Especially in the big tournaments, however, the experienced fighter is not necessarily one of those opponents that a seeded player would like to be drawn to in the opening rounds.

Three months after his last win – how is Murray really doing?

This is probably also the reason why odds of 1.30 on the favourite to win are being offered between Berrettini and Murray. In our eyes, these odds could even be a bit higher, because we think it is unlikely that the 35-year-old can really threaten his nine-year-younger opponent in a match over three winning sets.

The most recent results further support this impression. Murray won his last match on the tour at the end of October. He then retired, but still benefits from world ranking 49, which spares him the qualification. His first match in the 2023 calendar year was a straight two-set loss to Sebastian Korda.

His Italian opponent should therefore be more in the flow, be in better form and also be able to attack the weakened serve of the Glasgow-born Scot again and again. There is therefore a lot to be said for predicting a 3:1 or 3:0 victory for last year’s semi-finalist between Berrettini and Murray.

Matteo Berrettini – Andy Murray Direct comparison / H2H record

Four matches have been played between the two players on the ATP Tour so far. Murray won the first meeting in 2019. However, Matteo Berrettini has always had the upper hand in their most recent three encounters. Last year, the Italian won the final in Stuttgart on grass in three sets and finally also the second-round match at the US Open in four sets.

So both times the current top 20 player had to drop a set, so in terms of minimising risk between Berrettini and Murray, betting on the set handicap (-1.5) makes more sense, albeit at lower odds.

Matteo Berrettini – Andy Murray Tip

One of the most high-profile first-round duels at this year’s Australian Open comes on Monday night. A former Grand Slam finalist meets a three-time Grand Slam champion. The number 13 seed will be up against the world number 49, who will have plenty of experience and legendary status to draw on.

Nevertheless, Berrettini is clearly favoured against Murray according to the betting odds, which is absolutely understandable in our eyes. The Italian showed good form at the United Cup at the beginning of the year and also reached the semi-finals of this first Grand Slam last year. Murray, on the other hand, won his last match on the tour three months ago and also blew his 2023 opener with an outright loss to Korda.

In our opinion, everything speaks for the 26-year-old tall right-hander, who has an outstanding serve and will keep running Murray with his powerful forehand. The latter will not be able to keep up the pace over the full distance, which is why we are pretty well off with a bet on the set handicap (-1.5) before the duel between Berrettini and Murray. A 1.60 is offered at the top, which we confidently play with eight units.