Will the Russian’s return qualities decide the match?
With Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev, two serving giants face each other in the last 16 of the 126th Men’s Singles of the French Open, who entered the round of the last 16 almost undisturbed primarily because of their hardly defensible service game. While the Croatian only dropped one set, the Russian celebrated three straight 3-0 victories.
Both opponents are also former overall winners of the US Open. Cilic won the Grand Slam tournament on hard court in 2014, while Medvedev triumphed at Flushing Meadows last autumn. The Russian has a 3-0 advantage in direct comparisons, which is why the odds in the run-up to the match between Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev are also swinging in the direction of the Moscow player.
When two service giants clash, you can expect many aces and always long sets in which both athletes hardly surrender a service game. This in turn increases the likelihood of a tiebreak. It is true that a strong service is most defensible on the slow clay court. Nevertheless, we see the greatest value for Marin Cilic against Daniil Medvedev in betting that at least one set will be decided in a tiebreak.
The next top player on the ATP Tour, Andrey Rublev or Jannik Sinner, would be waiting for the winner in the quarter-finals.
Marin Cilic – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 23
Position in the seedings: 20
The 33-year-old Croatian Marin Cilic has already reached the finals of the 2017 Wimbledon Championships and 2018 Australian Open, in addition to his overall victory at the 2014 US Open.
Only at Roland Garros did “Mrnja” always reach the quarter-finals at the latest. In the last three years, the 23rd-ranked player in the world has not even made it past the second round.
Only four service games surrendered during the tournament
His run at this year’s French Open, where Marin Cilic recorded three easy wins on his way to the last 16 on a clay court he doesn’t really appreciate, is correspondingly strong. Only in the second round against Márton Fucsovics did the Croatian have to drop a set.
Once again, “Mrnja” benefited primarily from his extremely strong service game. The 33-year-old surrendered just four service games in the entire course of the tournament because he scored on average more than 75% of the time when the first serve arrived, which was almost impossible for his opponents to defend even on the slow clay.
Significant improvement in return game
On the other hand, the Croatian also improved his return game. Both in the opening match (60%) and most recently in the third round against local hero Gilles Simon (59%), he scored on his opponent’s serve in far more than half of all cases. If he can even come close to these figures in the last 16, a surprise is not out of the question.
In view of the fact that “Mrnja” has not yet won any of the three encounters against the Russian, the 33-year-old is still the outsider’s role.
Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 2
Theoretically, the world number two Daniil Medvedev could even return to number one in the ATP world rankings at Roland Garros. To do so, however, he would have to top his previous best at the French Open.
After always failing in the first round in his first four appearances in the men’s singles, the Russian reached the quarter-finals last year with his first four wins.
Won 19 of 25 singles in 2022
As a giant of serve, Medvedev is not an overly accomplished clay court player either.
However, the 26-year-old is also a rather untypical giant of serve due to his high mobility, speed and agility, who lives not only from his hardly defensible services, but also from his return game.
This is precisely the dangerous mixture that has led the Russian to four Grand Slam tournament finals in the last two and a half years and made him the overall winner of the US Open 2021 last autumn. Even in the still untitled year of 2022, his record reads rock solid with 19 wins from 25 singles matches.
Already 20 successful breaks in the tournament
The Russian, who surrendered just five service games in three straight 3-0 wins on his way to the last 16, is much more likely to break his opponent’s service. So far, the world number two has created 42 break chances, 20 of which he was able to convert into successful breaks.
Also because of these strong odds, the betting on Marin Cilic against Daniil Medvedev that the Muscovite will win the race in the end and assert himself in this round of 16 between two service giants is very good.
Marin Cilic – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0:3
The two players have faced each other a total of three times so far and in all three cases the Russian prevailed in the end. The most intense duel between the two players took place in the third round of Wimbledon in 2021, when the match went the full distance of five sets and Medvedev came back from 0:2 down to win 3:2.
Marin Cilic – Daniil Medvedev Tip
With Marin Cilic against Daniil Medvedev, the prediction between two players who usually clearly prefer the hard court goes to the match-winning Russian. Both service giants should win many free points and games on their own service. The Croatian should have more problems getting the breaks he needs, which should be much easier for Medvedev, who has already had 20 breaks in the tournament.
The danger of a set going into a tiebreak after six service games each is always high with two serving giants. In the three meetings so far, there has always been at least one tiebreak per match, which is why we see the greatest value in betting on this.
