Can Bouzkova upset the tournament favourites?

While the favourites in the men’s singles have been largely confident in the tournament so far, there has been a veritable death of favourites in the women’s singles. Wimbledon 2022 once again confirms the thesis that virtually every player in the women’s game has the quality to beat every other player. By the round of 16, only two of the top ten seeds were still in the tournament. The current world number two was completely unscathed. Ons Jabeur is now considered the favourite for the tournament. In the quarter-finals on Tuesday, Marie Bouzkova from the Czech Republic and Ons Jabeur from Tunisia will face off.

Even before this duel, it is clear that there will be a premiere, because both women had never reached the final round of a Grand Slam tournament in their careers. The 23-year-old Czech Bouzkova only dropped one set in the first round before three clear victories followed. Ons Jabeur has so far been untroubled on the hallowed Wimbledon turf and has celebrated four 2-0 victories. The two ladies should not lack confidence. The bookmakers are offering odds of just under 1.30 for the best African tennis player of all time in the duel between Bouzkova and Jabeur.

The 27-year-old Ons Jabeur has a great chance to make sporting history this week and is not only considered the favourite in this duel by the bookmakers, but with betting odds of 2.50 for the tournament victory, she is also the big hunted overall.

Marie Bouzkova – Statistics & current form

Born in 1998, Czech Marie Bouzkova celebrated winning the 2014 US Open junior competition title without dropping a set and climbed to seventh in the world junior rankings. Spheres that she has not even been able to reach on the women’s tour. Bouzkova, now 23 years old, reached her best ranking in March 2021 at number 46. She is currently ranked 66th, with the lack of points at Wimbledon preventing a new career high next week for the Czech.

Unexpected run of success at Church Road

A few days ago, hardly anyone would have believed that the Czech would be fighting for a place in the semi-finals. So far, appearances at GS level have been short-lived. The 2022 All England Tennis Championships will be her 14th appearance in the main draw of a Grand Slam event. In her 13 appearances so far, she has faced elimination in round one no less than ten times. Only at Wimbledon 2019 and at the Australian and French Opens this year did she get past the first hurdle. However, the second round at a Grand Slam tournament has been the maximum of emotions so far.

Bouzkova has generally been relatively successful in 2022 (26:10 match record) and is now celebrating her greatest career success. Danielle Collins, a top ten player, was already waiting for her in the first round, whom she defeated after losing the first set. She took advantage of the good draw after the surprise win. She had no problems in her further matches against Ann Li, Alison Riske and Caroline Garcia and celebrated clear victories in two sets.

The decisive factor for her current run of success is the extremely low number of avoidable errors. In the duel with Garcia, the Frenchwoman was clearly more aggressive, but Bouzkova returned almost everything and thus tried Garcia’s patience. In the entire match, Bouzkova committed only four (!) easy errors, a fantastic score. She also has a strong serve with which she can create pressure. All in all, the Czech is certainly an underdog, but she has a chance to surprise again. In this respect, a prediction on the game handicap in favour of Marie Bouzkova.

Ons Jabeur – Statistics & current form

Iga Swiatek’s run of success in recent weeks/months has dominated the headlines. In the shadow of the Pole, there is a player, 27-year-old Tunisian Ons Jabeur, who has equally played herself into the limelight. In October 2021, she reached the first milestone in African tennis, the first player ever to reach the top ten in the world rankings. She is sparking a real boom in her homeland, which may intensify in the coming days.

Proven grass specialist

At 27, Jabeur is no longer one of the young, emerging talents but has some experience. The explosion in performance in recent months was by no means expected, as for years Jabeur was nowhere to be found in the tennis world. Between 2010 and 2018, Jabeur celebrated a total of eleven tournament victories at the second-tier Future level. Since June 2021, there are now also three title wins on the WTA Tour. Among others, she won the Masters tournament in Madrid.

Even though the grass season is very short, Jabeur has been able to gain a lot of experience on the green surface. She has already played 80 matches in her long career on the green surface and has a strong 61:19 record. This year alone, she has won the same number of matches. The Tunisian won the preparatory tournament in Berlin, thus celebrating her second WTA title on grass after Birmingham 2020.

Without losing a set into the quarter-finals

Unlike her Czech opponent, Jabeur has already reached a Grand Slam quarter-final twice. In addition to the Australian Open 2020, this was also the case at Wimbledon last year. She was eliminated in two sets against Aryna Sabalenka. Speaking of two sets, the Tunisian has not yet had to give up a single round. After easy opening wins against Björklund (four games), Kawa (four games) and Parry (five games), she had slight problems against Mertens, who beat Kerber, but prevailed 7:6 and 6:4.

However, the tournament favourite was not entirely convincing, which was due in particular to the high number of errors. Compared to Bouzkova, the world number two practices typical lawn tennis and often looks for the way to the net (21 of 27 attempts were successful). Jabeur should normally prevail, but a similarly tight match as against Mertens is to be expected. Due to the Czech’s top form, the forecast between Bouzkova and Jabeur is for over 20.5 games.

Marie Bouzkova – Ons Jabeur Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to Head: 0:0

In the battle for the first GS semi-final of each of their careers, the two ladies face each other for the first time on the WTA Tour.

Marie Bouzkova – Ons Jabeur Tip

The demise of the favourites at Wimbledon has meant that a number of players who were not necessarily on the radar have gone on to great success. In the lower half of the women’s draw, numbers 2, 66, 97 and 103 are now in the quarter-finals. Even though the tournament so far has had many surprises, it is clear that the world number two is the favourite. Add to that the spotless 2022 grass record between Bouzkova and Jabeur, justifying the low odds on betting Jabeur’s success.

However, the underdog has been almost flawless on the hallowed turf of Wimbledon, trying the patience of her opponents. Bouzkova certainly has the means to annoy and challenge the favourite. A bet on a surprising victory certainly seems too risky, but a forecast on Bouzkova +4.5 games against Jabeur is very interesting. Especially since she can also be expected to win a set (bet: 3 sets at 2.75), the probability for the +4.5 games is very high.