Does the Polish Cinderella fairytale end in the semi-finals?
In her ninth singles match of 2023, Aryna Sabalenka was still on fire as she claimed a commanding 2-0 win for the ninth time in the young season, eliminating fearsome opponent Donna Vekic from the women’s singles at the Australian Open 2023.
Now the Belarusian clashes with the glaring outsider among the last four remaining players. Magda Linette against Aryna Sabalenka is a good bet for the world number five to advance.
The 30-year-old Pole has already bowled out highly decorated opponents such as Caroline Garcia and Karolina Pliskova, but has never made it past the third round of a Grand Slam in her career. In the run-up to the Australian Open, the world number 45’s Grand Slam record stood at just 18 wins from 47 singles. Consequently, she is the clear underdog in the forecast for the duel between Magda Linette and Aryna Sabalenka.
Although Magda Linette also surprised against the former world number one Karolina Pliskova, she also benefited to a certain extent from the fact that the Czech made an unbelievable number of errors and repeatedly fluffed her serve. Since we don’t expect Aryna Sabalenka, who has been completely untouchable so far in 2023, to hand out similar gifts, we expect a one-sided match instead.
We are betting on another commanding two-set victory for the Belarusian and are applying a handicap of -4.5 games on Aryna Sabalenka. Further tips on the eagerly awaited deciding matches at the first Grand Slam tournament of the 2023 season are available in the Tennis Betting section.
Magda Linette – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 45
Position in the seedings: unseeded
The 30-year-old Polish Magda Linette has been on the WTA Tour since 2011, but has only managed to win two singles titles in her professional career, which is now in its twelfth year.
In 2019, the player from Poznan won a small WTA International in New York City and in 2020 in Hua Hin – the lowest category on the entire WTA Tour. At higher levels, however, the world No. 45 has no successes on record.
Setting new records at the height of her career
At Grand Slam level, the Pole has always finished in the third round in her 29 appearances in women’s singles, and in a total of 24 WTA 1000 tournaments Magda Linette has never been able to break this magic barrier.
All the more Cinderella-like is her run at this year’s Australian Open, where the 30-year-old not only made it past the third round for the first time in the height of her career, but even advanced to the semi-finals with five wins. She is now only the third Pole to reach the last four in the 111-year history of the Australian Open.
Taking advantage of opponent’s weaknesses with ice coldness
Curiously, the run of the blatant underdog was quite opportunistic. In the quarter-finals against former world number one Karolina Pliskova, Magda Linette did not convince with a brilliant performance, but was rather on the spot when her opponent weakened.
Karolina Pliskova, who normally serves so well, committed a total of seven double faults, became increasingly erratic on her second serve (only 29% of all second serves resulted in points) and committed more and more unforced errors (36 in total). Against this background, too, the betting odds are now heavily against the Pole in the match between Magda Linette and Aryna Sabalenka.
Aryna Sabalenka – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 5
Position in the seedings: 5
Belarusian tennis player Aryna Sabalenka has been in the top four at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships and the 2021 and 2022 US Open Grand Slam tournaments.
However, the 24-year-old, who has now also reached the semifinals at the Australian Open for the first time, always came to an end in these three semi-finals. The world number five is also entering uncharted territory.
In nine singles matches in 2023 still without losing a set
However, another semi-final appearance fits in very well with the Belarusian’s year so far, as she has already shown in the run-up to the Australian Open. At the Adelaide International 1, Aryna Sabalenka secured the overall victory with four straight 2-0 wins and recorded a singles title on the WTA Tour for the first time since May 2021 – it was already her eleventh tournament win.
That the 24-year-old was able to take this momentum with her to Melbourne is evident from her tournament performance. With five more straight 2-0 wins, she is now Grand Slam semi-final number four in her career. This means Aryna Sabalenka has won all nine singles in 2023 without dropping a set.
The second serve is no longer a weak point
Consequently, the betting on Magda Linette entering the final against Aryna Sabalenka is also very good. After all, the former queen of double faults also improved her second serve noticeably.
While in 2022 she still had by far the most double faults on the entire WTA Tour with 428, which always prevented even more resounding successes, she has been much more stable and confident so far this season. If Sabalenka doesn’t offer anything in this semifinal, it will be extremely difficult for her Polish opponent, against whom nothing has gone wrong in two direct duels…
Magda Linette – Aryna Sabalenka Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0:2
The two players have met twice so far and on both occasions Aryna Sabalenka prevailed in emphatic fashion. Both at the Tianjin Open 2018 it was a straight 2:0 (6:1 and 6:3) and in the first round of the Olympic Games 2021 in Tokyo (6:2 and 6:1).
Magda Linette – Aryna Sabalenka Tip
With Magda Linette against Aryna Sabalenka, our prediction clearly goes to the Belarusian because of three factors. Firstly, the 24-year-old clearly leads the direct comparison with two completely one-sided 2:0 victories with a maximum of four games lost per match.
Secondly, the Sabalenka has massively improved on her second serve in 2023, which is reflected in the fact that she won all nine singles without losing a set.
And thirdly, her Polish challenger, who benefited significantly from a weak day from her opponent in her recent win over Pliskova, played a bit above her own capabilities.
We therefore assume that the Cinderella fairytale of the 30-year-old Pole will end very clearly in this semifinal and Aryna Sabalenka will come to an unchallenged two-set victory.
