Does Tsitsipas have to play his best tennis right from the start?

Possibly the most interesting and exciting first round match at this year’s French Open will be between Italian youngster Lorenzo Musetti and last year’s finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas. Although the world-class players are still separated by a few places in the ATP rankings, many experts believe that both have a glorious future ahead of them, including when it comes to winning Grand Slam titles.

By the way, Musetti and Tsitsipas have one very interesting thing in common. At last year’s French Open, they both delivered their best Grand Slam result to date. The Greek world number four reached the final and lost to Novak Djokovic, while his 20-year-old opponent made it to the last 16, but also lost to the top player from Serbia. Exciting: Both gave away a 2:0 set lead.

For this eagerly awaited first-round clash between Musetti and Tsitsipas, the odds are clearly in favour of the fourth-seeded right-hander. This pronounced role as favourite is primarily due to the fact that Stef has sold himself dearly in the clay court season so far. However, the Italian underdog should not be underestimated. The youngster is certainly capable of winning a set.

Lorenzo Musetti – Statistics & current form

Lorenzo Musetti was one of the “rising stars” of last season. In 2021, the Italian celebrated his breakthrough on the tour, celebrated a total of 36 victories, climbed deep into the top 100 in the rankings and also underlined his almost infinite potential. The 20-year-old was able to draw attention to himself several times, especially on clay.

The red clay is considered the strongest surface of the Carrara-born right-hander anyway. This became clear in 2021 at the French Open, among others, where he surprisingly made it to the second week and was able to eliminate top ten player David Goffin or former semi-finalist Marco Cecchinato on his way to the last 16. Musetti even upset Novak Djokovic in the last 16, winning the first two sets, but had to retire in the decider after losing two straight sets.

Musetti has played his way into the hearts of Parisians in 2021

Generally, injury proneness is an issue that needs to be mentioned. At this year’s preparatory tournament in Madrid, the 1.85 metre tall Italian also had to retire in the third round against Alexander Zverev due to an injury to his foot. Before that, however, he tanked up on self-confidence with victories against Korda or Ivashka.

Although 2022 is not yet the year of Lorenzo Musetti, it must be noted that he won ten of his 14 matches on clay and naturally has plenty of quality. Should the world number 57 be at 100%, which seems quite possible after about three weeks off, we definitely trust the outsider to win a set. The fact is that between Musetti and Tsitsipas, the odds of more than three sets are too high and therefore give value.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form

Next to defending champion Novak Djokovic, clay court king Rafael Nadal and the best “young gun” Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas is considered one of the hottest favourites for the French Open title. We also have the Greek finalist from last year on our radar, especially as the 23-year-old is the only one of the four title contenders in the draw who has been drawn in the lower half. His path to a potential semi-final is therefore a little easier on paper.

The man who has almost perfected his one-handed backhand in recent years had little luck in the draw for the first main round. Stef would certainly have wished for a more comfortable opponent to start the tournament. Nevertheless, the bookmakers do not doubt the role of the favourite of the world number four, so that between Musetti and Tsitsipas the tip on the right-hander is priced with extremely low quotes.

Tsitsipas not always error-free at the start of a Grand Slam

In the final in Rome, for example, Tsitsipas got the better of Novak Djokovic in the first set (0:6). Before that, the number four seed had to go to a deciding round in three out of four matches. It is quite possible that there will not be a straightforward three-set victory this time either. In the past, the world-class athlete often had difficulties in the first matches of a Grand Slam tournament.

Depending on how he gets used to the wet conditions at Roland Garros this time, he could lose another set. However, we do not believe in a surprise exit, the Masters tournaments in the run-up to this Grand Slam tournament were too strong. In Monte Carlo Stef won, in Barcelona and Madrid he first lost to Alcaraz and Zverev, before losing the final against Djokovic in Rome.

Lorenzo Musetti – Stefanos Tsitsipas Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Two times the two clay court specialists have faced each other in direct duels so far. Both matches date back to last year. On hard court in Acapulco, the more experienced Tsitsipas prevailed in two clear sets. The only match to date on red clay was more exciting. In Lyon in May 2021, Musetti took the first set but still lost the match. The last set went 6-0 to the Greek. The Italian youngster therefore still has a desire for revenge in him.

Lorenzo Musetti – Stefanos Tsitsipas Tip

In the first round of the French Open 2022, there will be an extremely exciting and high-class duel between two professionals who caused a sensation at the same venue last year. Musetti sensationally reached the round of 16 and thus attracted attention for the first time at a Grand Slam. Only against Djokovic was the end of the line after leading 2:0 sets. Tsitsipas also led 2-0 against the world number one in the final, but was still unable to win his first Major title.

Although the form curves have been pointing in different directions recently and the 20-year-old Italian has had to struggle with pain in his foot from time to time, we think the betting odds are too one-sided in the duel between Musetti and Tsitsipas. We don’t believe in a sensation either, but we also can’t imagine such a clear course of this match.

Therefore, in the first round match between Musetti and Tsitsipas, we are betting that there will be at least four sets. The Greek is known for revealing problems at the start of the Grand Slam and not going through smoothly.