Does the recovered and favored Djoker leave nothing to chance?

Lorenzo Musetti spent three and a half hours on court on Wednesday and prevailed 3-2 in a thrilling five-set match against Taylor Fritz (ATP 12) to reach the semi-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic was given a bye due to Alex de Minaur’s withdrawal through injury and was able to regenerate for a full three days in a row, which naturally influences our Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic betting tip

Djoker, for his part, has just returned to the court ahead of schedule after his knee operation in London. After dropping a set each in rounds two and three and not seeming to be at 100 percent, the additional break that the Serb has now been able to take could tip the scales. In any case, we think there is practically no alternative to Lorenzo Musetti against Novak Djokovic when it comes to predicting the Serbian superstar’s next appearance in the final

The London grass Grand Slam is a good place for Novak Djokovic anyway, who has won no fewer than 39 of his last 40 singles matches at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. The only defeat came in last year’s final against Carlos Alcaraz, who incidentally is also in the other Wimbledon semi-final and could well be Djokovic’s opponent in the final again.

We find the greatest value in the bet that the Serb will win a maximum of 20 games. This should work out in practically all constellations in which the Djoker asserts himself in three sets against Lorenzo Musetti, but also covers cases in which the Italian manages the surprise

Lorenzo Musetti – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 25
Position in the seeding list: 25

The 22-year-old Italian Lorenzo Musetti is actually a classic clay court player who has neither the strength nor – with his height of 1.85 meters – the physicality to win many free points on the fast grass in the best manner of the ATP Tour’s service giants, using a serve that is almost impossible to defend.

This makes it all the more surprising that the man from Carrara in Tuscany has now stormed into the semi-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his career on grass of all surfaces

Is Lorenzo Musetti just in the right place at the right time?

While Musetti’s run to the quarter-finals could still be considered opportunistic, as he successfully avoided the heavyweights in his section of the tournament tree, the 22-year-old impressed for the first time in the quarter-finals against a seasoned grass court player like Taylor Fritz (ATP 12).

The Italian beat the American, who had previously knocked Alexander Zverev, one of the Wimbledon overall winners’ favorites, out of the competition, above all because he sold his first serve a little better in the hard-fought five-setter (76 percent points won compared to Taylor Fritz’s 65 percent) and otherwise simply made far fewer mistakes.

Lorenzo Musetti’s Wimbledon run seems to have come out of nowhere

Lorenzo Musetti’s 39 unforced errors were matched by Taylor Fritz’s 55, which ultimately made the difference. It could therefore be argued that the 22-year-old once again took advantage of a rather poor day for the nominally stronger American.

After all, the incredibly strong grass court season of the player from Tuscany, who won twelve of his 14 singles matches on grass in 2024 but played a completely unremarkable season overall, never really materialized. In the case of Lorenzo Musetti against Novak Djokovic, the bet on the 25th-ranked player in the world to reach the final is also under such a bad star because the Italian has only won 18 of 35 singles matches this year in the run-up to the Wimbledon Championships

Novak Djokovic – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 2
Position in the seeding list: 2

The 37-year-old Serbian Novak Djokovic holds a number of records on the ATP Tour. Many of them, such as the total of 24 Grand Slam titles he has won in singles, could potentially last for eternity. However, the Djoker is far from retired and there are still records that he has not broken.

For example, Roger Federer is still the record winner of the Wimbledon Championships with eight overall victories – ahead of Novak Djokovic with seven titles. Accordingly, the man from Belgrade is keen to win title number eight at the grass court Grand Slam in London this year to draw level with King Roger.

Novak Djokovic with an outstanding Wimbledon record

It is well known that the current world number two still has what it takes to win major titles, even at an advanced professional age. Of his last 40 singles matches at Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic has won no fewer than 39. His only defeat came in last year’s final against Carlos Alcaraz.

And yet the often eccentric Serb is not unconditionally loved in the capital of the United Kingdom. During his remarkably clean 3-0 win over Holger Rune (ATP 15) in the round of 16, there were also boos in his direction, which he took up after the end of the match when he once again got into it with the crowd.

Did the break come at the right time for Novak Djokovic?

His victory against Holger Rune was not necessarily to be expected in such a clear manner after Nole had just undergone knee surgery and tended to return to the ATP Tour a tad too early due to his love of the London grass Grand Slam. In the two previous rounds, the Serb had suffered slight wobbles against the clear outsiders Jacob Fearnley (ATP 277) and Alexei Popyrin (ATP 47) and also dropped a set each.

However, the odds of the best bookmakers are now all the more in his favor again for Lorenzo Musetti against Novak Djokovic, especially as the quarter-final opponent Alex de Minaur’s hip injury has now given the Djoker a bye. This means the 37-year-old will be back on court on Friday for the first time since Monday evening and has been given an unexpected break to recover from his knee operation, which could now also make the difference in the quarter-finals

Lorenzo Musetti – Novak Djokovic head-to-head / H2H record

Head to head: 1:5

The two athletes have met six times so far and Novak Djokovic clearly leads the head-to-head with five wins. The Djoker has only just beaten Lorenzo Musetti twice in the clay season and ended the Italian’s French Open 2024 in a thrilling five-set match 3-2. Now the two athletes clash on grass for the first time

Lorenzo Musetti – Novak Djokovic tip

Lorenzo Musetti is an accomplished clay court player who has improved noticeably on grass for the 2024 season, but still has deficits that we believe are too serious to defeat one of the best grass players on the ATP Tour. After all, Nole has only just beaten the Italian 3:2 at the French Open 2024 on clay, which he doesn’t like too much, which is why things should be even clearer now on grass, which he clearly prefers. Consequently, our prediction for Lorenzo Musetti against Novak Djokovic is that the Serbian high-flyer will reach the final

It seems very unlikely to us that the Italian will be able to entangle the record Grand Slam winner on the ATP Tour in another long match. Because we are assuming a rather short match, the betting possibility that the Djoker will win a maximum of 20 games is very interesting, which would work out in a close three-set victory such as 7:6, 6:4 and 7:5 as well as a possible four-setter with 6:4, 2:6, 6:3 and 6:1, for example.

Last but not least, the bet that the Serb will win a maximum of 20 games would also cover many surprise victories by the Italian. For Nole to win less than 20.5 games, betting odds of 1.77 are available with Lorenzo Musetti against Novak Djokovic, which we play with four out of ten units at Intertops