Will the man from Sextner let his guard down again?
Although the big surprise ultimately failed to materialize. Nevertheless, a sensation was in the air for a short time when Tristan Schoolkate (ATP 173) took the first set against top favorite Jannik Sinner in the second round of the Australian Open 2025. However, the man from Sextner then fought back confidently to secure a 3-1 victory. Even now, the tip that Jannik Sinner will progress against Marcos Giron seems to be practically without alternative.
Never before has Hanfmann’s conqueror Marcos Giron survived the third round of a men’s singles at a Grand Slam tournament. In fact, the Californian had started the hard Grand Slam in Down Under with a record of zero wins from five matches played so far at the Australian Open, which is why the prediction that he would now have to throw in the towel against Marcos Giron is a pretty safe bet for Jannik Sinner.
In the only previous meeting between the two athletes, the Italian also won 2-0 against Marcos Giron on hard court, which is why there is ultimately nothing to suggest a surprise. Even winning a set by the American underdog, who last spent more than four hours on the court to reach the third round, is not too realistic.
Accordingly, the approach of betting on a not-too-long match is coherent. The biggest value here is provided by betting on under 30.5 games.
Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 1
Position in the seeding: 1
The 23-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner celebrated several milestones in his career last year. First, he became the first Grand Slam champion in history here in Melbourne, and then he also became the first Italian world number one of all time.
The man from Sextner then ended a season of superlatives by winning the 2024 US Open, before going on to win the unofficial World Cup at the ATP Finals in Turin – without losing a set.
Jannik Sinner with rare set loss
Across the seasons, the Sextner has already gone 16 consecutive singles matches without defeat, remaining without set loss in 13 consecutive matches until the second round of the Australian Open 2025.
The last set the Italian lost outside of a tiebreak was in the final of the ATP Beijing 2024 last September against Carlos Alcaraz. But then came the aforementioned second round match here in Melbourne against the rank outsider Tristan Schoolkate (ATP 173), to whom Sinner had to bow out in the first set 4-6.
Jannik Sinner continues to be the measure of all things
In the following three sets, however, the South Tyrolean was back to his old self. In the end, he only needed 170 minutes for the 3-1 comeback victory (4-6, 6-4, 6-1 and 6-3), in which the 23-year-old, who is also the top favorite in the Australian Open 2025 winners’ prediction, only allowed a single break point against him, which his opponent promptly converted.
However, the fact that the two-time Grand Slam champion was able to shrug off such a bad start so confidently and seal the comeback victory with strong numbers ensures that there is now no alternative to betting on his entry into the round of 16 in the third round match between Jannik Sinner and Marcos Giron.
Marcos Giron – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 45
Seed: unseeded
Last year in Newport, 31-year-old American Marcos Giron celebrated his first-ever tournament victory on the ATP Tour. Before that, the man from Thousand Oaks, California, had been very inconspicuous in the men’s main tennis division.
With a total of 22 appearances in the men’s singles of Grand Slam tournaments, the Californian had just eleven wins prior to the 2025 Australian Open. His run at this year’s hard-court Grand Slam in Down Under is therefore all the more surprising.
Marcos Giron with a weak Australian Open record
Especially since the Australian Open has not been a good place for the 45th-ranked ATP player so far. The Californian has participated in the men’s singles of the traditionally first Grand Slam tournament of the tennis season five times. Five times he lost in the very first round.
The 3-1 victory against German Yannick Hanfmann (ATP 98) in the first round of this year’s tournament was thus the American’s very first singles victory in Melbourne Park, which he promptly followed up with another victory. In the second round, he beat Tómas Martín Etcheverry (ATP 38) from Argentina 3-2, although it took him four hours and four minutes on court to do so.
Marcos Giron gets the new year off to a solid start
The 31-year-old thus confirmed his recent performances at the preparatory tournament in Adelaide, where he defeated Aleksandar Vukic (ATP 68) and Denis Shapovalov (ATP 56), two notable opponents in 2025, before losing 1-2 in the quarterfinals to Félix Auger-Aliassime (ATP 24).
Nevertheless, the odds are now clearly against the Californian in Jannik Sinner’s match against Marcos Giron. Betway is offering 19.00 for the underdog to win, but is also offering a Betway new customer bonus of up to €100. After all, the world number 45 conceded an incredible 19 break points against him in the second round. Even the fact that Marcos Giron defended against 11 of these 19 break points was ultimately not enough against the world number one.
Jannik Sinner – Marcos Giron Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1-0
The two players have only met each other once in a ranked singles match – in the second round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters 2023. On the Chinese hard court, the Californian was able to get the Italian into a tiebreak in the first set, but ultimately had to admit defeat with a straight 0-2 (6-7 and 2-6).
Jannik Sinner – Marcos Giron Tip
Even now, our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Marcos Giron is a clear victory for the Italian world number one, who, after a weak first set in the second round against Tristan Schoolkate, should probably remain without losing a set this time. Ultimately, there is not much to be said for the American underdog, who has never won a men’s singles match at the hard court Grand Slam in Melbourne in five attempts in the run-up to the 2025 Australian Open and who still has a negative record (2-5) despite his two victories this year.
Anything other than an unchallenged victory for the world number one would be a minor sensation, which is why we are betting on Jannik Sinner against Marcos Giron at odds of 1.75 that a maximum of 30 games will be needed to determine the winner.
