Will the crowd favorite make the semifinals?

Thursday evening’s third match in the Green Group of the 2023 ATP Finals will be extremely exciting, as Jannik Sinner could actually be eliminated despite his two wins in the opening round. Provided that Novak Djokovic lives up to his role as favorite in the afternoon and beats Hubert Hurkacz 2:0, the local hero would actually be out if Jannik Sinner’s bet on a 2:0 win for the Dane against Holger Rune comes true

If Holger Rune “only” wins 2:1, it could even come down to the percentage of games won. The Dane would then have to win both sets as clearly as possible in order to match his opponent’s strong figures. This starting position is correspondingly exciting and will of course also influence the forecast for Jannik Sinner against Holger Rune

It is conceivable that the South Tyrolean, who as an Italian citizen also competes under the Italian flag and is the undisputed crowd favorite in Turin, will pull the plug on his young challenger early with a 1:0 set lead. After all, Jannik Sinner has always won the first set against Holger Rune in their two previous meetings. But the truth is that the Dane ultimately won 2:1 in both cases.

Consequently, we expect a hard-fought group match in which more than 22.5 games will be needed to determine the winner. It is also possible that Sinner would be through early if Djokovic were to lose. Even then, however, the man from Sesto will probably be aiming to win the group, as a loss against Rune would otherwise cost him first place due to the loss of the match in the direct comparison

Jannik Sinner – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seeding list: 4

The 22-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner can look back on an impressive 2023, in which he won four of his ten singles titles on the ATP Tour. There were also bitter moments, such as losing the Miami Masters final at the beginning of April.

Nevertheless, the Sesto native still managed to win his first major title on the tour this season, winning the Roger’s Cup in Toronto in August. Most recently, the South Tyrolean also celebrated two further tournament victories in Beijing and Vienna in October – both at ATP 500 tournaments and both with a victory over Daniil Medvedev in the final

60 of the 74 singles matches won in 2023

In total, Jannik Sinner has now reached 60 wins from 74 singles matches played in 2023, which is why the former winner of the Next Gen ATP Finals has now qualified for the actual ATP Finals for the first time, where, as an Italian citizen, he is of course the absolute crowd favorite in Piedmont.

Two years ago, he replaced the injured Matteo Berrettini and managed to beat Hubert Hurkacz in the round robin. The man from Sesto is currently building on this success. The 2:0 opening win over Stefanos Tsitsipas was followed by an impressive 2:1 victory over defending champion and top favorite Novak Djokovic

27 of the 28 service games won at the ATP Finals

Fittingly, Jannik Sinner’s next singles win against Holger Rune is also a very good bet for the South Tyrolean, especially as the 22-year-old has improved in all respects this year. Of the 16 matches that Sinner played against other top 10 players in 2023, he won eleven in the end.

Sinner’s serve was particularly impressive against Djokovic, allowing just three break points against the world number one and even fending off two of them. This means that Jannik Sinner has won 27 of his 28 service games in the 2023 ATP Finals so far, which could be half the battle against Holger Rune

Holger Rune – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 8
Position in the seeding list: 8

The 20-year-old Dane Holger Rune qualified for the ATP Finals for the first time in the course of strong performances in the 2023 calendar year. After winning his first major title at a Masters tournament in Paris-Bercy in 2022, he did not win another major title in the new season.

However, not only did the man from Copenhagen win an ATP 250 on clay in Munich at the end of April, but he also reached two other Masters tournament finals in Monte-Carlo and Rome and reached the quarter-finals at the French Open and Wimbledon

The semi-finals are still possible under his own steam

Since Holger Rune has been coached by Boris Becker, the shooting star has also taken another decisive step forward, which not only entitles him to get a taste of the ATP Finals for the first time, but also to reach the semi-finals under his own steam after two of three matches played.

Should he manage a 2:0 win against Jannik Sinner, the Dane would be guaranteed a place in the semi-finals regardless of the outcome of the singles match between Djokovic and Hurkacz. However, the bookmakers’ odds on Jannik Sinner against Holger Rune are against the 20-year-old

14 of 29 singles matches won against top 10 players

As mentioned at the beginning, a 2:1 would lead to complex arithmetic games. However, this result is of course not out of the question, especially as Holger Rune has already won the last two singles matches against Jannik Sinner 2:1.

Although the Copenhagen native also has a strong record of 14 wins from 29 singles matches against top 10 players in his career, Rune’s impressive performance data is not only inferior to that of Sesto, but also in terms of his current annual tally of 44 wins from 68 singles matches played. In short, the Dane will have to stretch himself to continue his winning streak against Sinner.

Jannik Sinner – Holger Rune Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 0:2

There have been two meetings between the two players so far. In both the semi-finals of the ATP Sofia 2022 and the semi-finals of the Monte-Carlo Masters 2023, Holger Rune came back from 0:1 down to beat Jannik Sinner 2:1

Jannik Sinner – Holger Rune tip

However, the fact that the Dane has won the two previous meetings with the South Tyrolean 2:1 should not be ignored. It could be a mistake to write off the 20-year-old, who had a strong performance in his opening match against Novak Djokovic, prematurely, especially as Rune will definitely go into the final group match more rested after Tsitsipas retired early

It should also be noted that both meetings between the two shooting stars of the ATP Tour went the full three sets. Accordingly, the forecast for Jannik Sinner against Holger Rune is that more than 22.5 games will have to be played before the winner is decided. This also covers any decisions in two sets (e.g. 7:6 and 6:4)