Will Sinner down the two-time finalist?

The rows have thinned out and the pairing for the final of the 112th men’s singles at the Australian Open has been decided. Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will face each other – we provide our usual tips and odds for this big final in this article. There is much to suggest that the South Tyrolean-born Italian, who is the first Italian ever to reach the final of the Australian Open, will now also win the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup

The Russian is currently leading the head-to-head comparison with 6:3 wins against the man from Sesto. However, it should be noted that Medvedev, who has already lost the 2021 and 2022 Australian Open finals, won the first six meetings with Sinner. The last three encounters have all gone to the South Tyrolean, which may well influence the forecast for Jannik Sinner against Daniil Medvedev

However, the bookmakers also see the young Italian, who has only dropped a single set on his way to his first ever Grand Slam final, as having a clear advantage. As the odds are clearly in Jannik Sinner’s favor, with top quotes of just under 1.50 for the 22-year-old to win the title, there is not really much value to be found in this tip. What’s more, Daniil Medvedev already proved his comeback qualities in the semi-finals and was able to fight back after trailing 2:0 in sets.

In any case, the final is unlikely to be too short and one-sided. On the contrary, we think that both players will win at least one set and that the crowd Down Under will be treated to a worthy final. We favor the bet that over 39.5 games will be needed to determine this year’s champion

Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seeding list: 4

The 22-year-old South Tyrolean, who of course competes on the ATP Tour under the Italian flag, was already on the verge of winning his first major title in 2023 after his very first title at a Masters tournament.

In the final of the 2023 ATP Finals, however, the man from Sesto had to admit defeat to Novak Djokovic, which was curious in that he had already clearly defeated the Serb in the preliminary round and shortly afterwards, by winning the third group match, ensured that the Djoker remained in the competition and was not eliminated in the round robin

Jannik Sinner is the youngest AO finalist since Novak Djokovic

Jannik Sinner took his revenge on the 36-year-old Serb in the semifinals after beating him in the Davis Cup Finals shortly after the ATP Finals. The South Tyrolean swept his opponent off the court with 3:1 (6:1, 6:2, 6:7 and 6:3) in another brilliant match.

The 22-year-old thus remained unbeaten for the ninth singles match in a row and ended an almost unbelievable run by the world number one, who had previously won 33 singles matches in a row at the Australian Open and had never before failed to reach the semi-finals there. Jannik Sinner is thus the youngest finalist since Novak Djokovic himself (2008).

Jannik Sinner hardly missed a beat on his own serve

With six wins and 18:1 sets, the South Tyrolean also became the first Italian player of all time to reach the men’s or women’s singles grand final of the Australian Open. In view of the sheer dominance he displayed in Melbourne, the odds are promptly stacked in favor of the 22-year-old shooting star for Jannik Sinner against Daniil Medvedev.

If the man from Sesto can also bring his recent performance data to the court in the grand final, that should be half the battle. Even against the Djoker, the youngster didn’t concede a single break point, scored 83% of his points on his first serve and won a total of 75% of his serve points

Daniil Medvedev – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seeding list: 3

The 27-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev knows how to polarize people from time to time. However, the former world number one has been one of the absolute elite on the ATP Tour for several years now, as evidenced by the 20 singles titles he has already won in his career.

This is the sixth time the Muscovite has reached a major final at Grand Slam level. However, he has only managed to win the title at the 2021 US Open and has not been able to repeat this feat at either the 2021 and 2022 Australian Open or the 2023 US Open

Does Daniil Medvedev still have enough energy left after two marathon matches?

However, reaching this year’s final was anything but a matter of course. Daniil Medvedev already had to work hard in the quarter-final against Hubert Hurkacz (ATP 9), winning 3:2, before he was challenged mentally in the semi-final against Alexander Zverev (ATP 6).

Not only did the Muscovite overcome a 0:2 set deficit with nerves of steel, but he then equalized to 2:2 in two consecutive tiebreaks before an early break in the decider set the course for the 3:2 comeback victory. After four hours and 22 minutes, the 27-year-old promptly converted his very first match point to win 3:2 (5:7, 3:6, 7:6, 7:6 and 6:3).

Daniil Medvedev played more patiently, with stronger nerves and more confidence

It is not completely out of the question that Jannik Sinner’s bet on a win against Daniil Medvedev will also work out for the Russian, who has always won the first six meetings with the player from Sesto. However, the last three duels all went to the young Italian, who Medvedev only just lost 2:1 to in the semi-finals of the 2023 ATP Finals.

The Muscovite does have potential to improve on his serve, which he dropped five times in the semi-final against Alexander Zverev. All in all, however, the 27-year-old won a strong 42 percent of points against the German’s second serve. Not only did Medvedev patiently wait for his chances, but he also played much less error-prone overall. While Sascha made 70 unforced errors, Medvedev only made 41, which ultimately tipped the scales

Jannik Sinner – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 3:6

The two athletes have faced each other nine times in a rated singles match on the tennis courts of the ATP Tour and Daniil Medvedev leads the direct comparison with six wins. Curiously, the Russian won all of his first six matches against the Sesto native, before Jannik Sinner won all of his last three encounters with the Muscovite

Jannik Sinner – Daniil Medvedev betting tip

The betting odds for Jannik Sinner against Daniil Medvedev are remarkably in favor of the first Italian player of all time in an Australian Open final. This is not only due to the fact that the Sesto native has won the last three meetings with the Russian, but also to the 22-year-old’s performance Down Under. Sinner only dropped a single set on his way to his first career Grand Slam final, even ending top favorite Novak Djokovic’s 33-match unbeaten streak in the semifinals

Although we also see the South Tyrolean as the favorite in this final, we find no value in the comparatively low quotes in betting tip 1. Accordingly, it makes sense to go for Jannik Sinner against Daniil Medvedev in the prediction that this final will not be without a certain length. We recommend betting on over 39.5 games