Has the Alcaraz loss knocked the Russian out of his rhythm?

Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will meet in the first semi-final of the 2023 ATP Finals on Saturday afternoon at 2:30 pm – betting tips and odds are of course provided by Bettbasis. While the local hero completed the perfect preliminary round on Thursday and also helped Novak Djokovic with his 2:1 victory over Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev unfortunately did not get the help he had hoped for. Because Daniil Medvedev lost to Carlos Alcaraz in his final group match, the German was already out of the tournament before his last match

However, you can’t blame the Russian. He not only conserved his energy in his defeat in just 81 minutes of play, but also crossed the finish line as group runner-up, thus avoiding Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals. It remains to be seen whether the calculation will work out, as the Russian recently lost two matches in a row against the Italian. It will be interesting to see whether Jannik Sinner can hold his own against Daniil Medvedev and secure a ticket to the grand final

Daniil Medvedev is currently leading the head-to-head comparison 6:2. However, after six wins in a row over Jannik Sinner, the Muscovite recently lost both the final of the Beijing Masters and the final of the Vienna Open to the South Tyrolean. Curious: the two athletes faced each other four times in 2023 and, without exception, it was always a final. After two victories each for both players, this is the first time this year that they are not competing for a title.

With his three victories in the Green Group, Jannik Sinner convinced us more in the end. Although Daniil Medvedev has won both of his previous matches in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals in 2020 and 2021, we are therefore betting that the local hero will win this time

Jannik Sinner – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seeding list: 4

The 22-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner has been absolutely masterful so far at the ATP Finals 2023. In front of his home crowd at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, the South Tyrolean left nothing to be desired and won all three group matches with ease.

With an unblemished record of three wins, the man from Sesto has secured himself a place in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals and is now just two wins away from the biggest coup of his career to date. The South Tyrolean is certainly no stranger to experience. In 2019, Sinner secured the title at the Next Generation ATP Finals

16 of the last 18 singles matches won

In general, the current run of the world number four is only logical. Jannik Sinner has won 16 of his last 18 singles matches, bringing his yearly tally to 60 wins from 74 singles matches played on the ATP Tour.

Consequently, Jannik Sinner’s chances of reaching the final against Daniil Medvedev are also very good, especially as the South Tyrolean was able to defeat his Russian opponent in both the final of the China Open and the final of the Vienna Open in October

Won eleven of the 16 duels against top 10 players in 2023

It is not only particularly impressive that Jannik Sinner was able to defeat the top favorite and defending champion Novak Djokovic 2:1 in the second group match, but that he was also on top of his game in the third match against Holger Rune with a 2:1 victory, although strictly speaking he could have even afforded to lose.

The Italian, who has won eleven of his 16 singles matches against other top 10 players on the ATP Tour in 2021, was particularly convincing against the Dane with his serve. 84% of points won on his first serve speak for themselves, while the South Tyrolean was also able to fend off four of Holger Rune’s five break points and ultimately showed the better physicality in the deciding set

Daniil Medvedev – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seeding list: 3

The 27-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev has taken part in the ATP Finals four times so far. The year-end tournament has ended in the round robin twice for him. He reached the final on the other two occasions. In 2020, he secured the title against Dominic Thiem. In 2021, he lost to Alexander Zverev in the final.

The Muscovite could have given the German a helping hand in the final group match. Instead, Medvedev lost 0:2 to Carlos Alcaraz in just 81 minutes and even missed out on winning the group. As runner-up in the group, he will now face Jannik Sinner instead of Novak Djokovic

Winless since two meetings with Sinner

The Russian now reckons he has a good chance of reaching his third final at the ATP Finals, even though the odds are against him in Jannik Sinner’s match against Daniil Medvedev. This is primarily due to the fact that he recently lost his singles matches in Beijing and Vienna against the in-form Sesto player.

In general, Medvedev was much stronger in the first half of the season. The Russian won all five singles titles in 2023 between February and May. He did reach the final of the US Open in the second half of the season, but had no chance against Novak Djokovic. Perhaps that was another reason why he was ultimately able to live well with second place in the Red Group

66 of the 83 singles matches won in 2023

It is clear that his duel with Carlos Alcaraz should not be weighed in the balance given the starting position. Daniil Medvedev had previously celebrated two smooth 2:0 victories over Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev. Much more important now is the question of whether the defeat against the Spaniard – after all, only his 17th singles loss in 2023 in his 83rd match – might have knocked him out of his rhythm.

Given that he only won 44% of points on his second serve in the last group match, it is clear that Daniil Medvedev needs to improve again. Even with his back to the wall, the Muscovite at least fended off three of the five break points against him and, on balance, didn’t offer too much. Qualities that will certainly be important in the semi-finals

Jannik Sinner – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 2:6

There have already been eight meetings between the two players. Initially, Daniil Medvedev turned out to be a nemesis for the Italian, who lost all of their first six encounters – including the finals in Rotterdam and Miami in 2023. Then came October, however, when Jannik Sinner won two finals in a row against the Russian in Beijing and Vienna. The last time the duel was in the hands of Sinner

Jannik Sinner – Daniil Medvedev tip

All in all, our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Daniil Medvedev leans towards victory for the Sesto native, who not only has the fans at the Pala Alpitour in Turin behind him as an Italian citizen, but has also won the last two duels against the Russian. The Italian has also had an extra day to recover, which is why there are more arguments in favor of the local hero winning this match, although it should be noted that his Russian challenger has won both semi-finals at the ATP Finals so far

We are expecting a thoroughly exciting semi-final, which will certainly reach a certain length. Ultimately, however, we think the Italian shooting star should win the race, which is why we are backing bet 1.