Will Shelton give Sinner a hot fight?
In the seventh section of the tournament tree of the Shanghai Masters 2023, one of the favourites, Alexander Zverev, failed early. Nevertheless, two players from the current top 20 of the ATP world rankings have made it to the last 16. In the duel between Jannik Sinner and Ben Shelton – we provide a tip on the outcome in this article – the South Tyrolean is favoured.
For Ben Shelton, meanwhile, it is the first time in only the ninth Masters tournament of his career that he has made it past the third round and into the last 16. One reason things have rarely gone further for the American at Masters level is his poor record against top-10 players. In 2023, he won only one of seven duels with the ATP’s top stars, which definitely influences our prediction in the case of Jannik Sinner against Ben Shelton.
Ben Shelton’s only win over a reigning top-10 player came in the quarter-finals of this year’s US Open against his compatriot Frances Tiafoe (ATP 10), before he came up empty in the semi-finals against Novak Djokovic (0:3). But the up-and-coming American also forced a tiebreak against Djokovic, which we also believe he can do against Jannik Sinner.
Whether it will be enough to reach the quarter-finals is questionable, especially since the player from Sesto is not only one of the Shanghai Masters 2023 favourites, but also has a strong annual record of 51 wins from 64 matches. Bets on more than 0.5 tiebreaks or even a set win by Ben Shelton are nevertheless very interesting.
Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 4
Position in the seedings: 6
The 22-year-old South Tyrolean Jannik Sinner once won the Next Gen ATP Finals in 2019, showing at a young age that he has a potentially great career ahead of him.
So far, the man from Sesto has been able to keep that promise quite well. Already in 2021, he won four singles titles on the ATP Tour. In the current year, he has also already won three tournaments, whereby he also triumphed at a major tournament for the first time when he won the National Bank Open in Canada.
Sinner in top form!
In the meantime, the player from Sesto has already climbed to fourth place in the ATP world rankings and is therefore also one of the favourites at the Shanghai Masters. Accordingly, the odds are clearly in favour of the 22-year-old in Jannik Sinner’s match against Ben Shelton.
In the current year, the South Tyrolean has already won 51 singles matches, compared to just 13 defeats in total. Sinner can go into this round of 16 with a correspondingly broad chest after having to work hard in the first two matches at the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, however.
Only three of seven break points fended off during the tournament
In his opening match against Marcos Giron (ATP 80), the South Tyrolean had to win a thrilling tiebreak in the first set to break the American’s resistance and ultimately come away with a 2-0 victory in which he only fended off one of three opponent’s break points and thus surrendered two service games.
And most recently, against Sebastian Báez (ATP 29), Jannik Sinner even lost the first set before finally managing a 2-1 comeback victory. In this match, too, he was able to fend off “only” two of four break points against him and again lost two service games. These are values that the South Tyrolean will have to improve if he wants to go far in Shanghai.
Ben Shelton – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 20
Position in the seedings: 19
Ben Shelton celebrated his 21st birthday on the rest day after his 2-1 win over Roman Safiullin (ATP 40) to reach the last 16 of a Masters tournament for the first time in his career. Now the American would like to give himself a belated present by reaching the quarter-finals.
In the year of his breakthrough, it would undoubtedly be the next milestone for the shooting star from Atlanta, Georgia, who first reached the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his young career at the Australian Open 2023 before even making it to the semi-finals at the US Open 2023.
Shelton stumbles against top 10 players in 2023
The fact that it has not been enough for more and that the 21-year-old has so far won “only” three tournaments on the ATP Challenger Tour, but has never reached the final of an ATP Tour tournament, is also due to the fact that Ben Shelton does not have a good record against the top stars.
Seven times this year, the American, who is now ranked 20th himself, has met an opponent who was in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings at the time of the match. Ben Shelton has lost six of these seven matches. The only exception: his quarter-final win at the 2023 US Open against compatriot Frances Tiafoe (ATP 10).
Won 20 of 41 completed singles matches in 2023
Apart from that, the American’s annual balance is now almost even thanks to his two victories at the Shanghai Masters. The 21 defeats are now offset by 20 victories in singles matches, which he would now love to follow up with number 21.
There is not much to suggest that Jannik Sinner will win against Ben Shelton. But if he can get his service on the court as well as he did against Roman Safiullin (ATP 40), whom he beat 2:1 in the 3rd round, points are a foregone conclusion. Against the Russian, Shelton scored on his first serve 81% of the time and also fended off five out of six break points.
Jannik Sinner – Ben Shelton Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0:0
There has never been a singles match between the two athletes, who are facing each other for the first time ever in this Round of 16 match at the Shanghai Masters 2023. Consequently, there is no “head to head” data available that could influence our prediction in the case of Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton.
Jannik Sinner – Ben Shelton Tip
With a view to the previous successes, the strong annual record of 51:13 as well as the three individual titles already won in 2023, Jannik Sinner naturally goes into this round of 16 as the clear favourite. Ben Shelton has already reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open 2023 and the semi-finals of the US Open 2023. However, the American is breaking new ground at Masters level, having only won one of seven singles matches against reigning Top 10 players in the 2023 season.
But because the betting odds on Jannik Sinner winning against Ben Shelton are too small for there to be any value in it, we’re taking a different approach. We are betting that the American can force the South Tyrolean into a tiebreak in at least one set.
