Can Sinner already win his second match in 2024?

The overall winner of the Australian Open 2024, Jannik Sinner, has signed up for the 51st edition of the Rotterdam Open and started as the top seed in the Dutch port city. The player from Sesto was able to seamlessly continue his recent run. With four wins, the Italian is also in the final in his second tournament of the new year. In principle, Jannik Sinner’s bet on his next triumph against Alex de Minaur is also under a good star

Just one look at the head-to-head record between the two finalists is enough to see that there can only be one favorite. The two athletes have faced each other six times so far and Jannik Sinner has come out on top on all six occasions. So it’s certainly no surprise that our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur clearly goes to the South Tyrolean

Jannik Sinner has already cost Alex de Minaur a tournament victory twice. Not only did he beat the Australian in the final of the Next Gen ATP Finals in the first meeting between the two athletes in 2019, but he also beat Alex de Minaur in the final of the Canadian Open in Toronto at a Masters tournament last summer. We think the Australian has only a slight chance of revenge this time too.

The big question, however, is how to best play the bet on Jannik Sinner’s victory in order to generate the greatest possible value. Our choice here is a handicap bet (-3.5)

Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seeding list: 1

The 22-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner is currently picking up in Rotterdam exactly where he left off at the Australian Open 2024, when he was crowned Grand Slam champion for the first time in his career at a young age.

With four victories and just one set dropped, the man from Sesto once again made it to the final with great ease and could therefore win his second title in his second singles tournament of the 2024 season. It would be his twelfth career singles title on the ATP Tour

The momentum is clearly on Jannik Sinner’s side

The odds are now clearly stacked in Jannik Sinner’s favor against Alex de Minaur, who has won all six of his previous singles matches against his Australian challenger.

What’s more, the number four in the ATP world rankings is currently in probably the strongest form on the entire ATP Tour. Jannik Sinner has won no fewer than 24 of his last 25 singles matches. Only in the final of the 2023 ATP Finals did he have to admit defeat to Novak Djokovic, who, curiously enough, had only survived the preliminary round at all thanks to the Sesto player’s help

Jannik Sinner almost didn’t miss a beat on his own serve

In Rotterdam, Jannik Sinner did have slight problems in round two against wildcard Gael Monfils (ATP 70) when he was beaten 3:6 by the Frenchman in the second set. Apart from that, however, almost nothing went wrong. In the semi-final against local hero Tallon Griekspoor (ATP 29), he recorded another clean 2:0 victory (6:2 and 6:4) in just 79 minutes, in which the man from Sesto allowed six break points against him, but successfully fended off all six break points.

As a result, the 22-year-old not only scored points with his first serve in 81 percent of all cases, but also converted all nine service games in the semi-final, which was once again half the battle. If he brings his serve to the court in this form again in the final, it will be extremely difficult for Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 11
Position in the seeding list: 5

The 24-year-old Australian Alex de Minaur has reached the final of an ATP Tour tournament at the Rotterdam Open for the 17th time in his career. So far, however, his winning record in finals still has room for improvement. He has won seven of the 16 finals to date.

Two of the biggest defeats of his career came at the hands of his current opponent Jannik Sinner, who Alex de Minaur had to admit defeat to not only in the final of the Next Gen ATP Finals 2019, but also in the final of the Canadian Open 2023, both times without winning a set.

Alex de Minaur is playing a really strong season so far

The 24-year-old has yet to win a major title. In Acapulco in the spring of 2023, however, the player from Sydney did win a tournament in the ATP Tour 500 category. Even now, Jannik Sinner’s bet on the Australian’s next tournament win against Alex de Minaur does not bode too well.

However, it should be noted that the man from Down Under has had a strong year so far. Alex de Minaur has won ten of the twelve singles matches he has played in 2024, beating two of the ATP Tour’s absolute top stars in Novak Djokovic (ATP 1) and Alexander Zverev (ATP 7) at the United Cup

Alex de Minaur won all his service games in the semi-finals

In total, the world number eleven has already won four out of five singles matches against top 10 players this year. He doesn’t need to hide from Jannik Sinner with such performance data, especially as Alex de Minaur also recorded a smooth 2:0 victory over former world champion Grigor Dimitrov (ATP 13) in the semi-finals and also didn’t concede a service game.

The Australian always struggled when the Bulgarian served first. However, Alex de Minaur was able to attack the second serves very convincingly. In the end, he won 58 percent of his return points against his opponent’s second serve, making a total of three breaks. That could also be the key to success in this final

Jannik Sinner – Alex de Minaur Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 6:0

Six meetings have taken place between the two players so far and in all six cases Jannik Sinner has come out on top. In 2023, there were two duels in which a title was at stake. The Sesto native beat Alex de Minaur 2:0 (6:4 and 6:1) in the final of the Canadian Open in the summer, before also winning the Davis Cup final between Italy and Australia 2:0 (6:3 and 6:0).

Jannik Sinner – Alex de Minaur tip

The betting odds for Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur clearly favor the Italian, who has a commanding 6:0 lead over the Australian in the head-to-head. However, the momentum also clearly favors the Australian Open champion, who has not only won all eleven singles matches he has played in the 2024 calendar year, but has also won 24 of his last 25 singles matches this season

The Australian is also in good form and caused two small surprises in Rotterdam with his victories over Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov, taking his tally to ten wins from twelve singles matches in 2024. Nevertheless, given the South Tyrolean’s strong form in Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur, the prediction that the Sesto player will win the tournament is much more consistent.

We recommend the bet that the Italian will win by at least four games in the end. Bet365 offers odds of 1.67 for this, which we play with three units