How exciting can the local hero make it?
It has been 49 years since an Australian last won the men’s singles at the Australian Open, with Mark Edmondson. Since then, several Australians have reached the grand final (most recently Lleyton Hewitt in 2005). However, the title always remained out of reach. Accordingly, Alex de Minaur’s current run is a balm for the souls of the audience Down Under, although the tip for another victory for the player from Sydney is not exactly under favorable auspices in Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur.
With Jannik Sinner, the Australian is now finally facing the world number one. The Italian has won his last 18 singles matches across the years and was the first Italian ever to win the Australian Open a year ago.
A look at the head-to-head comparison shows that the chances of a possible outsider victory are even lower. Nine encounters have taken place between the two players so far, and in all nine cases, Jannik Sinner won in the end. However, the Sextner has recently had health problems in the round of 16, which in the meantime cost him a set. Against this background, a completely smooth 3-0 victory in record time does not seem overly likely.
Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 1
Position in the seeding: 1
23-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner remains unstoppable at the 2025 Australian Open. It was here a year ago that the Sextner broke the sound barrier and secured the first Grand Slam title of his career.
In the further course of the year, the South Tyrolean also became the first Italian to top the ATP Tour rankings and also won the US Open and the ATP Finals at the end of the year. Across the seasons, he now has four victories in Melbourne Park and 18 consecutive singles matches won.
Jannik Sinner’s winning streak continues
However, the 23-year-old has already lost a set twice in the tournament. First against Australian wildcard Tristan Schoolkate in the second round, and then most recently against Holer Rune (ATP 13), where he also had to work hard.
The Italian had health problems against the Dane in the second set, possibly related to the very high temperatures in Down Under, but then came back multiple times and ended up recording an overall commanding 3-1 victory.
Jannik Sinner with an outstanding record against Alex de Minaur
At the Australian Open, the Sextner has thus won eleven singles matches in a row and increased his tally to 19 wins from 23 completed singles. The odds in Jannik Sinner’s favor against Alex de Minaur are correspondingly clear. LeoVegas is offering prices of just 1.19 for Tip 1, but is also offering a 100% bonus of up to €100 on the LeoVegas bonus.
The fact that there is little room for surprises can also be seen from the “head to head” comparison. The two players have met nine times so far, and in all nine cases, Jannik Sinner was the winner. Particularly impressive: the Sextner has only ever lost a set to the Australian once, in a small tournament in Sofia in 2020, when Alex de Minaur was able to win a tiebreak against the Italian high-flyer.
Alex de Minaur – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 8
Position in the seed list: 8
25-year-old Australian Alex de Minaur is considered one of the country’s great hopes since he reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open boys’ singles in 2016 during his junior career.
However, he has never really lived up to the great promises of the future. After eight full years on the ATP Tour, during which he has only missed two of the 31 Grand Slam tournaments held, the man from Sydney is still waiting for his first major title.
Alex de Minaur with weak odds against top 10 players
Nevertheless, the 25-year-old is ranked eighth in the ATP world rankings, which is due to the fact that he showed a great deal of consistency last year. He reached at least the round of 16 at all four Grand Slam tournaments. In Melbourne, he is now among the top eight players at a Grand Slam tournament for the fourth time in a row.
It should also be noted, however, that he has not yet had to eliminate a heavyweight. Francisco Cerúndolo (ATP 31) was the highest-seeded opponent Alex de Minaur has faced so far in the third round. However, the level is now rising again, which is not a good sign in principle. The Australian has only won 18 of his 68 completed singles matches against top 10 players.
Alex de Minaur recently impressed with his second serve
He is even 0-9 behind in his head-to-head against the world number one from Italy, which is why it would be a small sensation if Jannik Sinner’s tip of the local hero’s progress to the semi-finals against Alex de Minaur came true.
But if the 25-year-old brings the performance data from his round of 16 onto the court, in which he defeated the American Alex Michselsen (ATP 42) 3-0 in just 130 minutes (6-0, 7-6 and 6-3), it could still be an exciting affair. With a ratio of 79 percent points won with the first serve and an incredible 65 percent with the second, Alex de Minaur ultimately only dropped a single service game in the match.
Jannik Sinner – Alex de Minaur Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 9:0
The paths of the two players have crossed nine times so far, and in all nine cases, Jannik Sinner has emerged victorious. Among other things, the Italian also beat Alex de Minaur at the Australian Open in 2022 – with a clean 3-0 victory in the round of 16 (7-6, 6-3 and 6-4). In the 2024 season, the Sextner celebrated a total of three straight 2-0 victories against the Australian.
Jannik Sinner – Alex de Minaur Tip
The betting odds for Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur are clearly beating the odds offered by the betting providers with Klarna in the direction of the world number one from Italy. No wonder, because not only has Jannik Sinner won his last 18 singles matches in a row, but he also has a 9-0 lead in the completely one-sided “head to head” comparison with the Australian. And yet “Demon” will at least know the crowd in Melbourne Park behind him, where they have been eagerly awaiting another Grand Slam men’s singles champion for 49 years.
Although our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur is that the favor will be with the favorite from South Tyrol, we do believe that the Australian challenger, with the crowd behind him, will be able to make the game more open than the world number one would like. The tip that at least 33 games will be played before the winner is determined is very consistent.
