Struff once again with a tough opening draw

Wimbledon has always been different and underlines this once again in 2022. At the third Grand Slam tournament of the year, no world ranking points are played, but it is all about fame, honour and lavish prize money. Nine Germans are in action on the first day of the tournament. Jan-Lennard Struff and Carlos Alcaraz will face each other on the second largest court.

The match is scheduled as the second match on court number 1 before Angelique Kerbe meets Kristina Mladenovic. The hype surrounding Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz peaked in Paris, but the teenager is not among the favourites on the hallowed turf of Wimbledon. The experience on the unfamiliar surface certainly speaks for “Struffi”, but his form in 2022 is disastrous. Accordingly, the bookmakers are offering betting odds of over 4.00 between Jan-Lennard Struff and Carlos Alcaraz for the now 32-year-old German.

For Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, the first round match at Wimbledon 2022 will be only his seventh ATP match on grass. He will also be back on court for the first time since his Paris exit.

Jan-Lennard Struff – Statistics & current form

In August 2020, Jan-Lennard Struff was still number 29 in the ATP world rankings, meanwhile the computer only throws him out at number 158. Normally, one would have to qualify with such a ranking, but due to the “Protected Ranking”, the 32-year-old veteran was able to avoid this. At the end of March, Struff broke his toe in Miami and therefore had to take a break for almost two months.

Only two wins in 2022

But even before the North American mishap, performances this year have been anything but convincing. One first-round defeat followed the next and due to the injury-related break he also lost all his points on clay court from last year. In the world rankings, he was ranked further and further down, but Struff still has big goals and is convinced that he will soon be able to show a double-digit ranking again.

In Stuttgart, Struff returned to the ATP Tour and was able to narrowly beat the US American Marcos Giron in his opening match. This was also his first win in 2022 at a regular ATP tournament; his only victory so far came at the start of the year at the ATP Cup against John Isner. However, the success against Giron was followed by defeats against Sonego, Ivashka and Verdasco. His sobering record in 2022 therefore shows only two wins and 14 losses.

With his strong serve, however, Struff should be able to win a few free points against the favoured Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz. Moreover, as an excellent doubles player, the German is also good at playing at the net. Serve-and-volley is an extremely effective tool on grass, as the rallies are extremely short. All in all, Struff has the experience and also the quality to annoy the top ten players. However, the failures of 2022 ensure that in the first round match between Jan-Lennard Struff and Carlos Alcaraz, a prediction of victory for the German does not seem realistic.

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

Masters title in Miami, tournament win in Barcelona and another Masters title in Madrid – unsurprisingly, Carlos Alcaraz created a real hype in the tennis world. Some experts even describe him as the perfect mixture of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic. He was expected to score a major coup in Paris, but a brilliant Alexander Zverev ended his journey in the quarter-finals.

Turf is virtually new territory

The defeat at the end of May against the German was also the last ATP match the 19-year-old teenager played. The current number six in the ATP world rankings has hardly any experience on grass. In fact, the database only contains a total of six matches. In 2019, he reached the quarter-finals at Wimbledon in the junior competition, last year he first won against Yasutaka Uchiyama, before he had no chance against Daniil Medvedev.

Accordingly, grass and Alcaraz is still an almost virgin relationship. In addition, he was unable to play in the preparatory tournament at the Queens Club due to slight elbow problems. On grass, footwork as well as aggressiveness are of great importance – these two components certainly shape the teenager’s game. He has also massively improved his serve and can generate enormous pressure with his forehand. The basic prerequisites for successful lawn tennis are in place.

However, he will certainly need a little time to adjust to the new circumstances. Accordingly, in the first round between Jan-Lennard Struff and Carlos Alcaraz, we can recommend betting on at least a set win for the German. But as the match progresses, the Spaniard’s aggressiveness should be decisive for success. In addition, there is a question mark over the physical fitness of “Struffi” in a best-of-five match after his long break.

Jan-Lennard Struff – Carlos Alcaraz Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to Head: 1:0

The only duel between the two so far took place at the 2021 French Open. Twelve months ago, the Spanish teenager was already regarded as a future top star, but he was only able to fulfil expectations to a limited extent at Roland Garros. In the third round, he suffered a clear defeat, while “Struffi” celebrated a smooth 3:0 set win.

Jan-Lennard Struff – Carlos Alcaraz Tip

Twelve months ago, the bookmakers’ assessment of this duel at Wimbledon would have been quite different. While Struff has had a very difficult time in recent weeks, the Spaniard has gone from success to success. Accordingly, on the first day of the tournament at Church Road between Struff and Alacaraz, only odds of 1.20-1.25 are being offered for the Spaniard to win.

Struff, as is so often the case in GS tournaments, is struggling with bad luck. After a messed-up year in 2022 with many setbacks, his self-confidence is clearly shot. It doesn’t help that the 19-year-old Spaniard has virtually no experience on the green surface.

At most, this could be an advantage at the beginning of the match, but as the match progresses, the favourite will do justice to his role. However, the forecast for the match between Struff and Alcaraz is a 3:1 or 3:2 victory for the Spaniard. The 32-year-old German certainly has the quality to win the set.