Will the Cologne player fulfil his duty in round one?

If an Italian-German duel between Berrettini and Otte is on the cards in the first round of the Mexican Open, then this pairing looks a lot more melodious than it actually is.

Instead of Matteo, who is ranked 24th in the ATP world rankings, the German will finally face his younger brother Jacopo, who made it to the main draw of an ATP Tour tournament for the first time in his career in Acapulco. Accordingly, it is unlikely that Jacopo Berretini will win against Oscar Otte.

However, the German faces a thoroughly thankless task. Not only is Jacopo Berrettini extremely difficult to assess, but he can also pick up tips directly from his older brother, who leads the head-to-head comparison with 3:0 victories against Oscar Otte. The German has also already lost five of his seven singles in 2023, which should be taken into account in Jacopo Berretini’s forecast against Oscar Otte.

By the way, Oscar Otte already failed 2-0 in the first round on his debut at the Mexican Open a year ago. It will certainly not be easy for the Cologne player, who now finds himself in the unusual role of favourite. However, anything other than a clear 2:0 victory for the German would be a big surprise.

Consequently, we put the handicap of -1.5 sets on the Cologne player, who should be able to decide this duel in his favour, if only because of his cumulative experience.

Jacopo Berrettini – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 842
Seeded List Position: Qualifying

The 24-year-old Italian Jacopo Berrettini has been part of the ITF since 2017, but initially only achieved his greatest successes in doubles. Together with his older brother Matteo Berrettini, he has already reached the semi-finals of a doubles event on the ATP Tour in Cagliari.

In singles, however, the Roman-born Berrettini has not been heard from too much since his two tournament victories in Reggio Emilia 2018 and Sion 2018 (both ITF tournaments).

First time in a main draw of an ATP Tour tournament

Somewhat surprisingly, the Italian has now received a wild card for the qualifying rounds of the Mexican Open 2023, which he made the most of with two wins over Geoffrey Blancaneaux (ATP 155) and Luciano Darderi (ATP 144). Jacopo Berrettini is now facing his very first rated singles on the ATP Tour.

Whether he can make the most of this opportunity, however, remains to be seen. In the case of Jacopo Berretini against Oscar Otte, the odds are also clearly in favour of the German because the 24-year-old Italian has never before in his career been able to win a singles match against a player from the top 100 of the ATP World Ranking.

Has already climbed over 150 places in the rankings

It is also clear, however, that Jacopo Berretini has absolutely nothing to lose in this first round match of the Mexican Open. He is already used to the outdoor hard courts of the Arena GNP Seguros thanks to his two victories in the qualifying rounds.

In addition, this match holds a huge chance of further appearances on the ATP Tour. Already with the points in the qualifying, Jacopo Berretini would climb from 842nd to 669th place in the ATP world rankings. Should he even manage to beat Oscar Otte, a jump to rank 477 in the ranking would be possible, which should provide additional motivation.

Oscar Otte – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world ranking list: 78
Position in the seedings: unseeded

The 29-year-old German Oscar Otte already successfully fought his way through the qualifying rounds for the Mexican Open a year ago, but then failed in his opening match in Acapulco with 0:2 against Pablo Carreno Busta.

Now the player from Cologne will compete again in Mexico – this time as an unseeded player. And the draw has certainly been kind to him. Instead of heavyweights such as Carlos Alcaraz or Casper Ruud, he will be playing a debutant.

Lost five of seven singles matches in 2023

Problematic for Oscar Otte is the fact that his opponent, who has hardly made an appearance so far, can also turn out to be a colourful surprise packet. Accordingly, the Cologne player has to take a clear look at himself in his preparation.

The betting odds on Jacopo Berretini against Oscar Otte are clearly in favour of the 29-year-old. However, the German’s self-confidence should not be too high after a slow start to 2023. The 78th-ranked player in the world has won just two of his seven singles matches so far this year.

So far two defeats against opponents outside the top 100

Oscar Otte has already lost twice in the new season against opponents who are not in the top 100 of the ATP world rankings. In his first singles tournament in 2023, the Cologne native lost 2-0 to Tomas Machac (ATP 115) in qualifying for a tournament in Adelaide before falling 3-1 to Juncheng Shang (ATP 194) in the first round at the Australian Open.

Otte did not let anything go in two other matches against lower-ranked opponents in duels with Dalibor Svrcina (ATP 222) and Christopher Eubanks (ATP 104) in his only two victories in the new year. However, this opening match in Acapulco will not be a foregone conclusion for the Cologne-based favourite.

Jacopo Berrettini – Oscar Otte Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 0:0

While Oscar Otte lost all three singles matches against Matteo Berrettini, the older brother of his opening opponent in Mexico, he now faces Jacopo Berrettini for the first time. Consequently, there is no “head to head” data available that could be used in the forecast for Jacopo Berretini against Oscar Otte.

Jacopo Berrettini – Oscar Otte Tip

Generally, the betting on Jacopo Berretini to win against Oscar Otte is under good omens. After all, the 24-year-old Italian is still completely inexperienced and is now facing his very first rated singles match on the ATP Tour. On the other hand, the Cologne player has a lot of experience, although he has not had the best start to the new year and has already lost five of his seven singles matches.

Never the less, the player from Cologne should not have too many problems against Roman, who has only made a notable appearance in doubles so far. We expect a two-set victory for the German and consequently put a -1.5 set handicap on Oscar Otte.