Can the Spanish underdog keep up?
Everything was set for a spectacular third round match between two former Grand Slam winners in the women’s singles at the Australian Open 2023. But then it was the turn of qualifier Cristina Bucsa, who surprisingly knocked Bianca Andreescu out of the competition and now faces the world number one. According to the bookmakers’ odds, there is almost no alternative to betting on a win for the Polish player in the match between Iga Swiatek and Cristina Bucsa.
Swiatek has marched through the tennis tournament in Melbourne so far, not without problems, but in the end without losing a set, where the Pole has reached the third round for the fourth time in a row with two 2-0 victories. Instead of meeting the 2019 US Open winner there, she now faces the number 100 in the WTA world rankings. Clearly, therefore, Iga Swiatek’s forecast against Cristina Bucsa is for another 2-0 win for the world number one.
Of course, it has to be said that Bucsa has nothing to lose in this match. In the run-up to the Australian Open 2023, the Spaniard won only one match at Grand Slam level. With her two victories to reach the third round, she has won as many singles matches at Grand Slams in her career as her opponent, who is five years younger, has overall Grand Slam victories.
Although we expect Swiatek to win 2:0, it still makes a lot of sense to expect the underdog to win one or two games. With a generous handicap of +7.5 games on Bucsa, the greatest value can be achieved in this unequal duel.
Iga Swiatek – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the World Ranking: 1
Position in the seedings: 1
Ever since Iga Swiatek won the French Open in autumn 2020 at the tender age of 19, it has been impossible to imagine the world without the exceptional Polish player.
The reigning world number one struggled at times in 2021 to build on her great success. In 2022, however, she cemented her newfound supremacy with several bang for the buck. She followed it up with Grand Slam titles two and three at Roland Garros and the 2022 US Open.
Won 15 of the 19 singles at the Australian Open
In general, 2022 was the year of Iga Swiatek, who won four other Major titles in addition to the two Grand Slams and also won two tournaments from the WTA 500 series. This resulted in a total of eight singles titles and first place in the WTA world rankings.
The Pole started as the top seed in Down Under, where she already had a good run a year ago and reached the semi-finals. Combined with her two victories at this year’s Australian Open, the 21-year-old now has 15 wins from 19 singles matches at the Melbourne tennis tournament.
With two 2-0 wins into the third round
On her way to the third round, Iga Swiatek once again did not lose a set, although at least her opening opponent Jule Niemeier made things difficult for the world number one. The Pole dropped a total of nine games in her opening match. After a clear 2:0 (6:2 and 6:3) against the Colombian Camila Osorio, the betting odds on Iga Swiatek against Cristina Bucsa also go in favour of the world number one.
Swiatek, who against her Colombian opponent “only” scored 62% of her points on her first serve, gave up three service games and made 17 unforced errors despite her short 84-minute match, can still improve in several areas. So far, however, her performance Down Under has forcefully underlined her role as favourite.
Cristina Bucsa – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 100
Seeded List Position: Qualifier
The 25-year-old Cristina Bucsa was born in the Republic of Moldova, for which the WTA World No. 100 also competed from her debut in 2013 until the 2015 season. Then the player, who says she prefers hard courts, moved to Spain.
Under the Spanish flag, the player made it into the main draw of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time at the 2021 US Open. A year later, it was also the US Open 2022 where Bucsa won a singles match at Grand Slam level for the first time. In the end, however, it was the end of the line in round two at Flushing Meadows.
First time ever in the third round of a Grand Slam
With only five completed singles at Grand Slam tournaments, of which she could only win one, the Spaniard already started last week in the qualifying of the Australian Open 2023, through which she secured her ticket to the main draw.
Here, the 25-year-old tripled her number of Grand Slam singles wins by first beating German qualifier Eva Lys 2-1 in a comeback victory before pulling off the first big surprise in the second round. Cristina Bucsa beat Bianca Andreescu – the 2019 US Open winner – 2-1, probably the biggest win of her career so far.
Already up 16 places in the rankings
Curiously, the numbers of the match don’t really reveal how the Spaniard was able to achieve this feat in the first place. In a thriller lasting almost three hours, Bucsa surrendered one more service game, played 59 unforced errors, also allowed herself four double faults and brought the first serve into the opponent’s court only 59% of the time, scoring with those that arrived only 55% of the time.
Nevertheless, the resilient WTA world number 100 is now through to the third round and can enjoy a new career high regardless of the outcome of the match. She is already ranked 84th in the virtual rankings, but if Iga Swiatek’s bet on her progressing against Cristina Bucsa pans out, it would still be an absolute sensation.
Iga Swiatek – Cristina Bucsa Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0:0
There has never been a rated tennis match between the two athletes before. Accordingly, there are no “head-to-head” balances that could be used in the prediction for Iga Swiatek against Cristina Bucsa.
Iga Swiatek – Cristina Bucsa Tip
While Swiatek was able to record another unchallenged 2:0 victory recently, in which it looked as if she had not even played to her full potential, Cristina Bucsa was able to land a 2:1 victory over Bianca Andreescu, which is not really supported by the match statistics. However, after the quite fortunate entry into the third round, the Spaniard has nothing at all to lose against the world number one.
If Bucsa plays free and bold, she should be able to win at least a few games against the world number one, who is doomed to win. In our opinion, the betting option of a +7.5 handicap on the underdog offers a lot of value. This would also cover a match like 6:2 and 6:3 in favour of the Pole.
