Will the German punch his ticket to the quarter-finals?

The all-German round of 16 didn’t happen because Daniel Altmaier had a very weak day against Grigor Dimitrov in the third round. But at least Alexander Zverev continues to fly the German flag at Roland Garros after his seven-month break and subsequent pale return to the tour. In the round of 16, Grigor Dimitrov vs. Alexander Zverev is also the more likely bet for the German to win

Not only does Sascha lead the direct comparison with the Bulgarian with three wins from four meetings, but the Hamburg player has also won the only clay-court encounter with Dimi so far 2:0 (6:1 and 6:4). In general, the German is clearly the more experienced player on the red clay, which is also reflected in the fact that Sascha has reached at least the last 16 at the French Open for the sixth time in a row. Our prediction for the 26-year-old is correspondingly clear for Grigor Dimitrov against Alexander Zverev.

It should also be noted that the 2017 world champion Grigor Dimitrov has not won a single singles title on the ATP Tour since his triumph at the 2017 ATP Finals and has mostly remained very pale overall. To a certain extent, the second entry of his career into the French Open round of 16 is also due to an easy draw. After all, Timonfey Skatov, Emil Ruusuvuori and Daniel Altmaier were – if you’ll pardon the expression – not the fattest of lumps.

Although we think Alexander Zverev is far more likely to advance, we believe the Bulgarian can demand everything from the German. In this context, there is a lot of value in betting that at least one set will go into a tiebreak.

Grigor Dimitrov – statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 29
Position in the seedings: 28

The 32-year-old Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov has really achieved a lot in his career, but has been flying almost completely under the radar for what is now the sixth consecutive year since he reached for the stars in the 2017 season.

That year, the player formerly known as Baby Federer because of his style of play reached the semifinals of the Australian Open before winning his first major title at the 2017 Western & Southern Open and even being crowned world champion in the year-end tournament at the ATP Finals.

Ahead of the French Open with 15 wins from 25 singles in 2023

Curiously, that overall victory at the 2017 ATP Finals was the last singles title Dimi has won to date. What is so remarkable about it is the fact that the Bulgarian was not slowed down by serious injuries, but for no immediately explainable reason was never able to build on the 2017 season, which he finished third in the world rankings.

The following five seasons ended between 19th and 28th place in the table. Currently, the former world champion is only in 29th position, which is also due to the fact that in the run-up to Roland Garros, only 15 wins from 25 singles matches played in 2023 were on the record. So there is not much to suggest that Grigor Dimitrov’s betting on his entry into the quarter-finals against Alexander Zverev will work out.

With three 3-0 wins into the French Open last 16 for the second time

At the French Open, however, Dimi hasn’t let anything go to waste yet. The Bulgarian celebrated three convincing 3-0 wins in a row against Timonfey Skatov, Emil Ruusuvuori and Daniel Altmaier to reach the last 16 of the only Grand Slam played on clay for the second time in his career since the 2020 French Open.

Against a tired-looking Altmaier, Baby-Federer didn’t let anything go in a fast-paced match in two hours and eight minutes, especially on his own serve. In the end, he won 75% of his first serve points and 55% of his second serve points, which meant that the 32-year-old failed to convert just two service games.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 27
Position in the seedings: 22

The 26-year-old German Alexander Zverev did have to work hard in Saturday’s “Night Session” against Frances Tiafoe to overcome a 0:1 set deficit, winning two of the subsequent three sets only in a tiebreak.

In the end, though, in a match that wasn’t decided until after midnight, it was another win in what has been an unremarkable year so far, with Sascha making the last 16 of the French Open for the sixth year in a row.

Won 26 of the 33 singles matches at the French Open

The Hamburg native has only failed to reach the round of the best 16 players at Roland Garros once in the last five years – in 2020, when it was against the then upstart Jannik Sinner. In total, Alexander Zverev has won 26 of his 33 singles matches at the French Open.

Now, too, the odds are stacked against Alexander Zverev in Grigor Dimitrov’s favour, who in his only clay-court encounter so far seven years ago in Rome beat the Bulgarian by a very clear 2-0 margin (6-1, 6-4).

High error rate in the third round

Possibly also because Alexander Zverev slipped and fell again in his third round match against Frances Tiafoe only a few metres away from the place where he twisted his ankle so badly a year ago and had to take a seven-month break, the German has also found it a little more difficult mentally recently.

Physically, he may have coped well with the shock moment. However, Sacha committed 46 unforced errors in the match against the American and only managed to win 44% of his return points, which had been his great strength in the previous matches. In our eyes, this is an indication that he will also be challenged by Grigor Dimitrov.

Grigor Dimitrov – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 1:3

The two athletes have faced each other a total of four times in rated singles matches on the ATP Tour so far. After the first meeting, which Grigor Dimitrov won 2-1 at the Basel Indoors in 2014, the last three duels have all gone to Alexander Zverev, who defeated the Bulgarian 2-0 (6-1 and 6-4) in his only match on clay so far at the Italian Open 2016.

Grigor Dimitrov – Alexander Zverev Tip

With Grigor Dimitrov against Alexander Zverev, our prediction is basically for the German to progress, who is finally finding his old form a year after his horror injury at Roland Garros and has reached the last 16 of the only Grand Slam tournament played on clay for the sixth time in a row. Moreover, in their only encounter on the red clay so far, they didn’t even have a chance against their Bulgarian opponent in a straightforward two-set win.

However, Grigor Dimitrov has not yet dropped a set on his way to the last 16 and is in good form. Accordingly, we find a lot of value in betting that the Bulgarian will be able to force a tiebreak in at least one set.