Who will accompany Ruud to the semifinals?
In the “Night session” of the third matchday of the Green Group of the ATP Finals 2022, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz will decide who will accompany Casper Ruud, who is already certain to be the group winner, into the semifinals.
Both athletes celebrated a victory over Rafael Nadal, but were defeated by the Norwegian. Accordingly, the last group match will become a stand-alone knockout match.
The winner will face the Red Group winner at the Pala Alpitour in Turin on Saturday, while the loser will have to travel home. For one of this year’s two debutants, the first appearance at the ATP Finals will thus be a success. According to the bookmakers, betting on Félix Auger-Aliassime against Taylor Fritz is the better choice for the Canadian
However, it should be noted that the only duel between the two players that took place at the beginning of the season in the ATP Cup went to the American. In any case, it could be very close between two service giants who hardly ever give up service games on the fast indoor hard court.
Accordingly, the forecast for Félix Auger-Aliassime against Taylor Fritz is that at least one set will go into a tiebreak with six service games each.
Félix Auger-Aliassime – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 6
Position in the seedings: 5
The 22-year-old Canadian Félix Auger-Aliassime has experienced a meteoric rise over the last three years. The Montreal man already finished 2019 and 2020 as number 21 in the ATP World Rankings before narrowly making it to the ATP Finals a year ago in eleventh place.
This year, Auger-Aliassime secured sixth place in the rankings with four tournament victories in Rotterdam, Florence, Antwerp and Basel and thus punched his ticket to the year-end tournament of the best eight players. He is also the youngest man in the field.
The next exclamation mark in a memorable season?
Félix Auger-Aliassime was already the favourite against Casper Ruud in the opening match.
However, he paid a lot of dues and was defeated 0:2 because of nuances. In the second group match, however, the 22-year-old was at his best and kept his chances of reaching the semifinals alive with a straightforward 2-0 win over top seed Rafael Nadal.
If the Canadian now manages a win over Taylor Fritz, the world number six will move into the round of the best four players. In a memorable season in which Auger-Aliassime won 57 of his 83 singles, it would truly be the next exclamation mark.
Won 21 of last 23 singles matches
The betting companies believe the Canadian has a good chance of reaching the semifinals. In the case of Félix Auger-Aliassime against Taylor Fritz, the odds are in favour of the 22-year-old, who has been in particularly impressive form in recent weeks. The world number six has lost only two of his last 23 singles matches.
If he now brings his service values back onto the court – even in the opening match, despite losing 2-0, he scored on the first serve 84% of the time before hitting 15 aces against Rafael Nadal – that would be half the battle against Taylor Fritz.
Taylor Fritz – statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 9
Position in the seedings: 8
The 25-year-old American Taylor Fritz has been part of the ATP Tour a little longer than his current opponent Félix Auger-Aliassime. Nevertheless, this is also the Californian’s first participation in the ATP Finals.
Fritz owes the honour of playing in the year-end tournament on the one hand to his great tournament victories at the Indian Wells Masters and the Japan Open. On the other hand, however, the world number nine only moved up into the top eight due to the injury of Carlos Alcaraz.
In both group matches so far in tiebreak
However, the aspect that Fritz is “only” the runner-up should be of no concern to the American serving giant. In his opening match, the 25-year-old was already very strong and defeated none other than top seed Rafael Nadal 2:0.
Responsible for this was on the one hand the hardly defensible service game, against which the bull from Manacor could not earn a break point, and on the other hand the precise baseline play with the long forehand. This combination almost led to success against Casper Ruud as well. However, in a tough three-setter in which he surrendered only one service game, the Norwegian had the better nerves in the final tiebreak.
Won eight of the last eleven singles matches
This will certainly not detract from the performance of the American, who recently converted 87% of all first serves into points even in three-setters. If he manages to do the same against the Canadian, who is also very strong on serve, our bet on Félix Auger-Aliassime against Taylor Fritz is that there will also be at least one tiebreak in this match.
That the 25-year-old will have the better end of the deal this time and reach the semifinals on his debut is not unlikely, even in view of Fritz’s recent form. The Californian has won eight of his last eleven singles matches.
Félix Auger-Aliassime – Taylor Fritz Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0:1
There has been one meeting between the two players so far. The match dates back to the ATP Cup 2022, when Félix Auger-Aliassime initially took the lead in the first set in a tiebreak. However, Taylor Fritz then turned the match around to secure a 2-1 victory (6-7, 6-4, 6-4).
Félix Auger-Aliassime – Taylor Fritz Tip
With Félix Auger-Aliassime against Taylor Fritz, the forecast has to take into account that two serving giants are facing each other here on fast indoor hard court. This promises many aces and many service games without losing points. In this context, there is a lot of value in betting that at least one set will go into extra time after six service games and will only be decided in a tiebreak.
Taylor Fritz has already had to go into a tiebreak against both Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud, while in the only meeting between the American and the Canadian so far, the first set was only decided in extra time.
